During the pandemic, housing markets in Florida and Texas enjoyed a surge in popularity. Unencumbered by office attendance, remote workers headed south to cash in on the Sunbelt’s warm temperatures, low tax rates, and new construction.
But that story is being rewritten now. Homebuyers are now prioritizing affordability and steady employment, meaning Rust Belt cities are now stronger than their Sunbelt counterparts. Ohio, in particular, is a quiet champion of the American housing market, thanks to the allure of the Cleveland Clinic, and a $20 billion Intel plant. Oh, and homes that are about 30% cheaper than those on the coasts.
Redfin data released in July shows the U.S. is firmly a buyer’s market, with sellers outnumbering buyers by nearly two to one.
“The biggest hurdle for Americans looking to buy a home is affordability, but those with the budget to move now–even in the face of record-high home prices and stubbornly high mortgage rates–have the power,” Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, wrote in the report. “In most of the country, there are more homes to choose from, fewer bidding wars and more room to negotiate on price, closing costs and repairs.”
In a lopsided market, Ohio holds steady
The five most lopsided buyer’s markets in the country are all in the Sunbelt: Miami (where sellers outnumber buyers by 140%), Nashville (129%), Houston (124%), San Antonio (117%), and Austin (112%).
Meanwhile, Ohio is holding the line. Cincinnati and Columbus are modest buyer’s markets (37.2% and 40.5%, respectively), and Cleveland is one of the rare balanced markets in America.
Gen Z buyers and remote workers, especially, are abandoning higher-cost Sunbelt metros for the Midwest, where median home prices often hover between $200,000 and $275,000—well below the national figure, which has surpassed $400,000. Cleveland’s median home price sits around $150,000, Realtor.com data shows, less than one-third of Miami’s $625,000.
“Perched on the southern shore of Lake Erie, Cleveland mixes Rust Belt grit with a genuine comeback story—from the world-class Cleveland Clinic to the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, to revitalized neighborhoods like Ohio City and Tremont, where century-old homes sit next to buzzy breweries and restaurants,” according to Realtor.com. “It’s a city that punches well above its weight, and its real estate market is starting to prove it.”
The Sunbelt’s home price problem
The shift in leverage is showing up in prices, and that’s where Texas and Florida are taking the biggest losses—and it’s been that way for a while.
Data analysis from Lance Lambert, founder of ResiClub, published in April shows, at the time, home prices in the Austin metro sat 27.8% below their 2022 peak, while home prices in Hartford were 22.5% above their 2022 peak.
“Some of that ‘bifurcation’ boils down to mean reversion, with many of the outright home price declines occurring in markets that overheated further during the pandemic housing boom,” Lambert wrote.
Nationally, home prices rose just 0.8% year over year between March 2025 and March 2026, per Lambert’s analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index, and 89 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets posted year-over-year price declines in March. In Texas, Florida, and Colorado, active inventory at the time exceeded pre-pandemic 2019 levels, Lambert wrote, because the Sunbelt overbuilt. That means home prices will decrease or remain flat, he added.
The Midwest continues to havee the opposite problem. New Redfin data shows Columbus home prices are up more than 7% year over year, with a median sale price of $301,000.
Toledo was also ranked the fourth-hottest housing market in the country by Realtor.com for 2026, with projected price growth of 13.1%. While Sunbelt sellers are slashing prices to clear inventory, Ohio sellers are watching their equity grow.
Climate, insurance, and the Florida exit
This change is also amplified by forces buyers can’t negotiate their way out of: climate risk, property insurance premiums, and rising HOA (homeowners association) fees.
Florida has been grappling with intensifying natural disasters, soaring insurance premiums, and rising condo HOA fees, which have prompted some homeowners to leave, according to Redfin. In fact, data from Insurify, show that the average annual premium in the Sunshine State is $8,292, about 181% higher than the national average.
Miami is also regarded as one of the weakest markets because it has a glut of condos, and owners across South Florida have been hit with hefty special assessments stemming from post-Surfside structural inspection laws. Texas has its own version of the problem: Property taxes and insurance costs driven by hailstorms, tornadoes, and Gulf hurricane risk have eroded the affordability math that drew millions of people there.
Why Ohio is winning
Ohio isn’t on many coastal buyers’ radar for lifestyle reasons, but it can make more sense on paper from an affordability standpoint.
Columbus has an average home price around $250,000, Zillow data shows, and Cleveland offers ownership costs that are actually lower than rent—a rare feat in today’s market.
Cincinnati’s corporate base includes six Fortune 500 companies, from Kroger to Procter & Gamble. Meanwhile, Intel’s roughly $20 billion semiconductor project just outside Columbus is drawing talent, capital, and housing demand.
Danielle Andrews, a realtor with Realty One Group Next Generation, previously told Fortune she has recently worked with several Gen Z buyers—especially remote workers and young professionals—who are leaving higher-cost areas like Florida for more affordable housing.
“For many, it’s not just about cheaper homes, but about being able to build wealth earlier without drowning in overhead,” Andrews said. She also cited a StorageCafe statistic showing that Gen Z and millennials each accounted for nearly 30% of all interstate movers, with states like Indiana and Wisconsin seeing some of the biggest gains.
The popularity of Florida and Texas isn’t going away entirely, but the pandemic premium that let Sunbelt sellers name their price is gone. In its place is a market where buyers, armed with inventory and leverage, are finally calling the shots.
A version of this story was originally published on Fortune.com on April 21, 2026.
The post The tables have turned: Florida and Texas are the biggest losers in the housing market as Ohio emerges a surprise winner appeared first on Fortune.
