What This Democrat’s Surge in Texas Says About the Midterms

Democrats have Texas-size dreams this election of flipping a state that has eluded them since the 1990s. While the Democratic candidate for Senate, James Talarico, has gotten most of the attention and money in that fight, another Democrat, Gina Hinojosa, has looked surprisingly competitive against the most powerful politician in the state: Gov. Greg Abbott, the Republican running for an unprecedented fourth term.

Hinojosa is a Texas state legislator who represents parts of liberal Austin. Her political rise began on her local school board, where she was inspired to run for the State Legislature because of cuts to public school funding under Abbott. That became one of her signature issues, which she has carried over into her run for governor.

When she began her campaign, she was seen as the longest of long shots: a Latina with little statewide name recognition and not a lot of financial support. Today, the most recent New York Times/Siena University poll shows her narrowly ahead of Abbott, and national Democrats are finally taking notice, directing money toward the race in these last few crucial weeks. I asked Hinojosa whether that will be enough to overcome an extremely well-funded Abbott, who declined our interview request. We also talked about why she is focusing on affordability, education and data centers rather than what she calls “culture-war issues” and how she is trying to pull in disaffected rural MAGA voters. Can she win? And what will it say about Texas if she does?

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I was told by a Texas reporter that in some ways you ran for governor — a position last held by your party in 1995 by another woman, Ann Richards — as a sacrificial lamb. It was the longest of long shots, you had no real chance, but basically some Democrat had to do it and so it might as well be you. Did you see it that way too? No. I wouldn’t have given up a year of my life away from my family to be on the road all across the state to be a sacrificial lamb. I am running to win. It is not an easy endeavor to do this, and it took everything out of me from this last year.

Texas keeps breaking Democratic hearts. What are you doing differently than, say, Beto O’Rourke, who was the last Democrat to run against Abbott? He had a lot of name recognition, a lot of momentum behind him nationally, and yet he still lost by 11 points. I don’t know that I can compare my candidacy to Beto’s. It’s a different time. In 2026, the data centers have been a physical manifestation of a governor doing the bidding of the moneyed interests and leaving the people of Texas to fend for themselves. And so in that way, rural Texas has felt betrayed by Greg Abbott because many of these data centers have descended upon rural Texas where there are no rules really.

I was in the Panhandle, Amarillo, talking to residents where they are fighting the world’s largest data center. It is called Project Matador. Its investors are Rick Perry, our former governor, and his son. They negotiated a deal to get all of their water in this drought-prone area for the data center from the city water supply. When residents asked what happens if we run out of water, the response they told me they got from municipal water was, Well, we will have to turn off the residents’ first. That’s the environment we’re living in in Texas. And so people understand that we are fighting a fight where it’s all of us in the same boat versus like 15 billionaire tech dudes.

When you go to these rural areas, are you trying to get disaffected MAGA voters to turn your way? What is the overall plan on who to persuade, because obviously your time and your resources are finite, so you have to pick and choose who you’re trying to get to listen to your message. It’s everybody. I have not picked and chosen. I have been all over the state with all communities. To be clear, it is not a moderating message. It is reaching out to Democrats, Republicans, independents, with a populist message. And yes, I need Trump supporters to support this race. Trump won Texas, Trump won the Latino vote in Texas. Absolutely, they are invited to be part of this coalition.

What’s been the thing that’s most surprised you when you’re out among communities that you wouldn’t naturally see as supporting you? I mean, you represented Austin, which is one of the most liberal places in the state. I was in Red Oak, Texas, where they have big-acreage lots and a school down the street. They invited me in because they have seven data centers moving into their community, including one that’s 900 acres large right next door to the home that I was invited into. And I was sitting in a living room with MAGA. They knew Greg Abbott had sold them out, but they weren’t sure about me. They had questions. So I sat down and I said: OK, let’s go. Ask me. And they wanted to ask me culture-war questions, right? They wanted to ask me about constitutional carry. I said, “What you call constitutional carry, I call permitless carry, and I voted against it because I believe we should have background checks to have a gun.” They asked me about Shariah law. And I said, “I don’t really know what Shariah law is, but what I worry about is that regular Muslim Texans are going to be discriminated against because people think they are practicing this thing that probably most of them don’t even know what it is.”

And so we engaged, which I think is a rare thing for people of different political parties. It’s rare for elected Democratic leaders to sit down with MAGA and say, “Let’s talk,” and to agree to disagree where we disagree, to find common ground where we do, but then ultimately to recognize, while we have been fighting these culture wars for 10 years in this country — culture wars that are not winnable because they depend on your personal experiences, your lived experience — the only winners have been the tech giants that are amassing our money and our power and all of our data and, if you believe recent reports, are about to blow up the world if we don’t come together fast to save ourselves.

How persuasive do you think you’ve been? I think people are tired of fighting culture-war fights. I think there is an opportunity, if we choose to take it, to forge a new way forward that is almost post-partisan in recognition of disappointment, again, in both parties. Because both parties, frankly, are corrupted by corporate influence. I mean, I see it in the Democratic Party, too. I have seen so many Democrats grandstand on culture-war issues, only to vote with corporate interests, and none of us are better for it.

I want to learn a little bit more about you and your background. Your father was a Democratic Party chair in the state for 13 years and was a judge. Your mom was born in Mexico. What was your family like growing up? My parents started off as legal aid lawyers. They represented farmworkers, and I was born to high school sweethearts. They were very young when they had me, so in some ways I grew up with them. I grew up in Brownsville, on the border with Matamoros, Mexico, and back then we used to cross back and forth all the time. We’d go for breakfast on the weekends to Mexico. We would go shopping for things in Mexico. We were a binational community.

Because you know the area really well, I am curious what you think has been happening down in the Rio Grande Valley. In 2016, it was a 60-point-plus Democratic area, and then, in 2024, Trump won it. What do you think Republicans figured out to catch fire there? There were a couple of things happening. One, Latinos along the border were angry about border security. Remember, this was at a time when we had the caravans crossing. We had people sleeping under bridges. It felt chaotic. It did not inspire confidence. Border communities were angry about that, and those are mostly Latino communities. I also think that Latinos vote their pocketbooks, and Trump was promising to deliver a kind of economic prosperity that was appealing.

But fast forward to today, and yes, we all want border security, but these ICE raids are making us less secure, not more secure. People are really angry about the racial profiling that’s happened. We’ve even had American boys, on their way to enlist in the Marines, pulled from their car by ICE and beaten. We had a man who was killed in Houston a few months ago on his way to work, a case of mistaken identity where they shot first, asked questions later. I could go on. That is the reality we are dealing with in Texas, and Latinos are angry and scared.

As you know, many people see Democrats as weak on the border. Abbott has used his authority to send the National Guard down to the border, among other things. What approaches of Trump or Abbott do you agree with? Because we have seen the border become a much more secure place. Illegal crossings have plummeted under the Trump administration. I think we cannot treat people who have been in our communities for 20 years, hard-working, law-abiding members of our community, like we are treating somebody who needs to be vetted coming across the border. Those are two different kinds of people who need to be treated differently. We should have a path to legalization for people who are here. We should also have order at the border and security at the border.

But what specifically would you do differently than Governor Abbott? Would you repeal S.B. 4, which is the Abbott law that makes unauthorized entry into Texas a [state] criminal offense? Well, I wouldn’t have the power to repeal that as governor.

But would you propose it? Do you think it should be repealed? I don’t support it, and I voted against it, and I stand by my record. But I’m not going to pretend like I’ll have the power to convince the Legislature to do that. Even if I win, we still have Republican control of everything in this state. My agenda will be one that 99 percent of us agree on, which is to secure the American dream, to save Texas public schools, put money in your pocket — a populist agenda, rather than fight fights that I know I can’t win.

That’s interesting. So what you’re telling me is that you might not agree with S.B. 4, which also authorizes the state to remove those here illegally — typically a federal function — but you’re not going to try to change it because you feel like you can’t do it. So then what’s in it for Democrats who want to see substantial changes to the law in Texas, if you won’t be able to deliver on key issues for them? This is not a blue state. This is Texas, where we have Greg Abbott putting the Texas National Guard in detention centers so that these private prison companies can maximize their profits. We have kids being locked up with their parents because Greg Abbott allows for the licensing of these detention centers for little kids to be locked up. We have a governor who turns the other way when Texans are being mowed down on our streets. There is a lot besides the repeal of S.B. 4, and having a governor who has the courage to stand up for Texans will be night and day in this state.

I’m just trying to understand, if you become governor, how you would address some of the things that you see are wrong. What would you do in terms of ICE? I will use everything from the bully pulpit to the courts to defend the rights of Texans.

Do you think ICE needs to be reformed? Reimagined? Disbanded? I think what is happening needs to stop. ICE should not be doing this. They should not be here. What they are doing is causing more danger to the people of Texas than it is protection. People fear them. People are angry at them. It is chaotic. These guys are not trained. They should not be here.

Staying with the border, one of the people you’ve spoken out about is Elon Musk. SpaceX is based in the valley. It even has a town called Starbase there. It employs thousands of people. Musk has pledged $20 million to a local school district down there. You’ve been very critical of him and the way he has operated his businesses in Texas. Tell me why. I’m actually more critical of the way Abbott lets him abuse our resources. I blame him less than I blame our weak leader, who doesn’t defend Texans. The record is that Elon Musk has given Greg Abbott half a million dollars to his campaign, and he has received $1.6 billion in property-tax breaks for his company, Terafab. He’s received tens of millions of dollars in cash from the state of Texas for Starbase. He has received the governor’s intervention in contracting for broadband so that he could receive a $100 million broadband contract. This is the reality we are living in.

Elon Musk has also been an enormous contributor to the Republican Party — tens of millions of dollars being poured into the race in Texas in particular, but all over the country. How do you see his role in the politics of your state? He has an outsize influence, to say the least. You should not be able to spend that much money. It’s gross that he has that kind of influence over our political system.

There must be some tension there because he is a big employer in the state. He moved a lot of his businesses to Texas. You want people to have good-paying jobs. So how do you imagine that you would manage that relationship with someone who clearly supports a different agenda? I launched this campaign with this saying my grandmother used to tell me growing up: No te dejes. There’s not a direct translation for this saying, but it basically means: Know your worth, and fight to defend it. Elon Musk is lucky he is here. Yes, there are good jobs that he is providing, but also he’s getting tremendous taxpayer dollars that is not justified.

Do you think he should get out of the state? He doesn’t need to get out of the state. He just needs to abide by the rules like everybody else does. We all pay our taxes. Why shouldn’t Elon Musk pay his taxes in Texas, too?

You’ve described the way that many Texans feel disempowered and the way that the economy has functioned, in your view, against ordinary Texans. But I do think Republicans would argue that their policies have made Texas one of the most business-friendly states in the entire country. It has the second-largest economy after California. Isn’t that good stewardship of the state? There’s no question that corporations love Greg Abbott and Texas, but the reality is we have the most people without health insurance of any state, despite the fact that Texans worked more hours than the national average. We have the most children without health insurance of any state. We have the most people disconnected from their electricity because they cannot afford to pay their bills. We have the most bankruptcies of any state in America, and it is small businesses that are struggling to keep their doors open. We have over 150 school districts operating at four days a week because they can’t afford to operate at five days a week. Despite the fact that we pay 85 percent more in property taxes under Greg Abbott. That is his record. We have nothing to show for it. So yes, there’s a lot of money that flows through Texas. There is a lot of money that is made in Texas by the people of Texas, but the people are not sharing in that economic wealth.

OK, we’re going to pivot a little bit to something that you’ve talked about, which is seeing yourself as a populist and not a liberal or a progressive. Your voting record in the State House is, by all accounts, pretty liberal. You were, in 2019, ranked the most liberal member of the Texas House, and it was a title that you openly embraced. So I’m curious how you define “populist” and “progressive,” and tell me why you’ve landed on “populist” as a label for yourself. I think “populist” meets the moment of our time. The one fight in this country is about economic power, and populism is about economic power. We see that things are so stacked against working people in this country. Listen, it’s just a label, but if I were to pick a label to describe my politics, it is economic populism. It happens to be a type of politics that is rooted in our Texas history. It was L.B.J.’s grandfather, who was part of the Farmers’ Alliance, that organized farmers against big railroads that were taking advantage of them. Now we have working Texans who are up against big tech. And so I chose this title to define my politics because I think this has to be the politics of the moment to meet the challenges of the moment.

Is part of it also that the progressive or liberal label could be perceived as pretty toxic by certain members of the state that you’re trying to get to vote for you? No, it is not that. But I think those labels have been associated with culture wars, and I just don’t think that the culture wars are the fight of 2026.

Being a progressive could also be about the way you use taxation to redistribute wealth. It could mean the way you want the health care system to work in terms of supporting Obamacare or Medicare for all. It’s not just a label that has to do with culture wars. I think it means more than that. It may mean more than that to you, but to a lot of people, it means the culture-war fights, because those are the fights we’ve been fighting for the last 10 years.

So that comes back to my thing that it’s toxic. No, it’s not that. It comes back to that it doesn’t meet the political moment. It is not what 2026 is about. Look, we are facing an almost existential crisis in this country because tech giants are having their way with us. There is one fight, and we are so caught up in fighting each other in a divided nation, fighting each other over the ways we disagree about social issues and culture wars that we’re all about to lose. And so I’m not going to perpetuate that anymore.

You clearly understand that some of these issues motivate people. You released a very personal ad early in your campaign talking about the issue of abortion. In Texas, abortion is almost completely banned from conception with no exception for rape or incest. In your ad, you discuss something very personal. Can you tell me the story and why you wanted to talk about it? So in my first pregnancy, shortly after I was married, I was diagnosed with a fetus that had trisomy 18, which was described to me by doctors as not compatible with life. I had to make a decision about whether or not to terminate that pregnancy. I had a week’s time to decide that. I consulted with my priest and the nun at my church. I prayed with my husband. We both took that time to figure out what to do. My family was so supportive. I had a small Christian community that held my hand along the way, and I ultimately decided not to terminate that pregnancy and carry it forward to term. She didn’t make it. She died at nine months of pregnancy at birth. And it made me who I am. I probably would not be here had it not been for that experience. It showed me my strength and really put things in perspective for me.

That’s such a very personal and painful story. What were you hoping people would understand about you from that? I think Texans want to know who are you, why are you doing this, what motivates you. It was a formative experience in my life. And I think the thing that I wanted to communicate is that this is first and foremost a human experience. We have politicized pregnancy in this country, but there are so many women, so many families, who have had their hearts broken by pregnancies gone bad. I wanted to try to connect with people on a human level with what my human hardship was and how it made me stronger.

Do you see abortion as a culture-war issue, or do you see it as something that transcends that — as an issue of health care or an issue of human rights? I think it is an issue of human rights. I think it’s a health care issue. There are women who are dying in Texas because they can’t terminate a pregnancy when they are in crisis because doctors are facing 99 years in prison. We just had our governor delay the release of the maternal mortality report in this state until after the election, but we’ve heard so many stories of women dying, and we know it’s going to be bad. So absolutely, it is all of those things.

What would you like to do if you’re governor on that issue, understanding that the Legislature is what it is? I do think that we can come together in a bipartisan way to save women’s lives. That is the commitment I’ve made on the campaign trail.

Obviously, as a woman, you are hoping to appeal to women, including, as you’ve mentioned, MAGA women. I just looked at the latest Marist poll, and you are ahead with women, but not by much. Are you doing well enough with women? Are you worried about that? Well, the only reason we’re winning six major polls out of the last five weeks is because of our strong support from women. So I feel good about our support from women. But look, we take no demographic for granted.

A different demographic: Prominent Latinos wrote a letter to Democratic leadership imploring them to give you financial support. They wrote, “We are asking you to invest in a competitive race with the largest Latino electorate in the country following an election cycle where Republicans made alarming inroads with Latinos.” Do you think the national Democrats ignore Latino candidates like you? I don’t really follow other races, but I would like them to invest in this race. We have an opportunity of a generation to win here. We’ve been dealt a phenomenal hand in Texas, and it would be very helpful to have more national support. There’s no doubt there are big national stakes in this race. We know that Republicans in Austin want to redistrict again in Texas, redraw maps, and they have decided to do so next year if they win. We know there’s no Democratic control of Congress when that happens.

We need a governor in Texas who will veto rigged maps, and I will be that governor. So those are the stakes. And again, this is an opportunity of a generation to win. In 2026, yes, Latinos are key to that winning number. Beto got 64 percent of the Latino vote in 2018. When I get that, I win because there are more of us in the voting population in Texas in 2026. This is not the time to be playing small ball.

Do you think the head of the Democratic Governors Association, Gov. Andy Beshear, was disrespecting your candidacy? Because he was reluctant to invest. I have a good relationship with him. They did send $1 million. I’m grateful for that.

One million dollars is not a lot in Texas. It’s such a big state. It’s helpful. Ninety-five percent of our contributions come from small-dollar donations. I’m proud of what we’ve been able to raise.

You just mentioned that Texas Republicans are planning to redraw the maps, which could be very, very problematic for Democrats in Congress. Did you make the case to the national party about that? Yes, I did make that case, and I have made that case from the very beginning. Absolutely, those are the stakes, and we’ve been talking to anybody who will listen. That’s why I think you’re hearing Democrats across the country really want to make sure we have the investment we need to win, because the stakes are so high and because the opportunity to win is even higher. For the first time, we have a ticket running in Texas. We’ve had Beto in the past, we’ve had Colin Allred in the past, but it was just them. Now we have me, we have James [Talarico], we have Democrats running up and down the ballot. For the first time, we have Democrats running in every Texas House seat, Texas Senate seat, congressional seat. We have an opportunity of a generation to win in Texas.

Well, let’s say you do win. It will be a political earthquake. What do you think it will signify? The thing that I am most excited about when I win is the feeling Texans will feel to know their power again. To know that we can go up against big money, probably the biggest in the country, and entrenched politics — Greg Abbott is probably the most entrenched incumbent there is in America — and that we could win. And I just know there’s going to be this feeling of almost liberation when we feel our power again. That’s the thing I’m most looking forward to.

This interview has been edited and condensed. Listen to and follow “The Interview” on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, iHeartRadio or Amazon Music. Follow us on Instagram and TikTok.