In my column last week, I wrote about the Democratic Party’s dramatic change of fortune in the race to control the Senate. The expectation at the start of this election cycle was that Republicans would hold the chamber easily and, depending on the course of events, even expand their majority.
After all, just to maintain the status quo, Democrats had to defend incumbents in states that President Trump won handily. And to have any chance at a majority, they would need to defeat at least one incumbent — Susan Collins of Maine, for example — and overcome the Republican Party’s home-field advantage in at least two states.
A tall order if there ever was one.
But thanks to a set of Trump’s bad decisions — from his authoritarian occupations of American cities that enraged liberal voters to a war in Iran that has angered swing voters and independents with inflation and high prices — Democrats have turned what was supposed to be a bad Senate map into one where they stand a real chance of winning a decently sized majority in the chamber.
But while the fundamentals determine the overall shape of the electoral landscape, candidates and campaigns play a meaningful part in the final outcome. And it is in the realm of candidates and campaigns that I want to remark on two particular aspects of this campaign season.
The first is the wide gap in candidate quality between the Republicans and Democrats. In race after race, Democrats have managed to recruit and advance candidates who are well positioned to capitalize on changing political circumstances. Even if he were not facing off against Ken Paxton, an experienced but still strikingly weak candidate, James Talarico would still be an impressive recruit. He is a natural communicator — whose seminarian background and personal faith have been a great asset in winning over Texas voters — and he has proved to be both nimble and aggressive, able to hold Paxton’s feet to the fire despite facing an onslaught of cash from outside groups and actors, like Elon Musk.
You could say similar things of Adam Hamilton in Kansas, perhaps the surprise candidate of this cycle, who is running a competitive race against the Republican incumbent, Roger Marshall. Hamilton is a religious leader — the founder and senior pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States — with broad appeal in a state that is, like Texas, known for its deep religious feeling. With his moderate politics, Hamilton has successfully presented himself as a bipartisan figure, with support from prominent Republicans in Kansas. It also helps that Marshall, a doctor, has struggled in the face of revelations that he took harsh and punitive action against his patients, dragging them to court for trivial amounts of money.
Other Democratic candidates, such as Josh Turek in Iowa, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Troy Jackson in Maine, have also successfully capitalized on the Republican Party’s worsening electoral position. And even those Democrats who might be a little more progressive than their electorates — Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan — show a great deal of political talent and are well-positioned to win.
As for the Republicans, the opposite appears to be true. There are a few candidates in the field who may well outperform the fundamentals, like the Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson. Michele Tafoya in Minnesota also seems to be keeping up with her opponent. But beyond them, Republicans are working with candidates who are just not up to snuff. In Georgia, Mike Collins has been marred by his associations with white nationalists and other extremists, and is headed for a crushing defeat in his race against the incumbent, Senator Jon Ossoff. Darline Graham in South Carolina is barely ahead of her Democratic opponent, and again, this is South Carolina. The aforementioned Ken Paxton is such a lackluster candidate that he may well deliver the Texas Republican Party its first statewide defeat for federal office since 1988.
Perhaps the most striking example of a candidate ill-equipped for a competitive race is Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican nominee for governor of Ohio. Ramaswamy ran unsuccessfully for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, then returned home to Ohio to try to lead the party there. Perhaps the fact that Republicans were not anticipating a competitive year is how Ramaswamy managed to win the nomination. Either way, he is currently poised to lose to the Democratic nominee, Amy Acton.
In apparent desperation, the Ramaswamy campaign commissioned an advertisement featuring Amy Acton’s mother. The two have not seen or spoken to each other since 1978. As a child, Acton testified against her stepfather, who was charged with sexually abusing her. Acton’s mother took her husband’s side, and the two fled the state. In the advertisement, Acton’s mother calls her daughter a liar, someone who “lies about her past.” The evidence says otherwise. To give one example, documents released by Mahoning County officials in Ohio corroborate Acton’s claim that she lived in a tent as a child.
The Ramaswamy camp, which includes fellow Ohioan JD Vance, thinks the ad is effective. But it’s been condemned by people on both sides, including the state’s Republican governor, as crude, craven and cruel. There is a chance, as well, that it blows back on Ramaswamy, undermining his campaign in the critical final stretch of the election. It is the kind of move that a more seasoned and competent candidate might have avoided. As it is, Ramaswamy’s gambit may well drag down the entire statewide ticket.
We’re still 10 days away from Election Day, so I’m not going to make any grand pronouncements about the outcome. But I will say that if Republicans do lose the Senate, and if they lose it badly, it will be a testament to one of the most striking political dynamics of the Trump era.
It is very possible that Trump was the only Republican who could have stitched together his particular electoral coalition. It is undoubtedly the case that Trump has some special sauce that makes him a formidable general election candidate. But this has not extended to the rest of the Republican Party. No other Republican is able to mimic Trump’s particular style of politics. And while Trump’s endorsement is a powerful force in Republican primaries, the president does not actually have a great track record of picking candidates who go on to win general elections.
Trump is in absolute command of the Republican Party, but outside of his own victories, he has steered it, more often than not, into troubled electoral waters.
What I Wrote
My column this week was on the Trump administration’s attempt to denaturalize and expel Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.
It should be said that the drive to denaturalize Omar is, by itself, a startling attack on the liberty of all Americans. It’s a move that harks back to the worst of the nation’s past — those moments when the government sought to shape, define and ultimately choose who would be “the people” of the United States.
I joined my colleagues Michelle Cottle and David French for an episode of The Opinions. I’ll also talked a little about Representative Omar for a video. And I talked a little bit about my process and approach to writing with political scientist Hanna Sistek, media historian Sage Goodwin and communication scholar Julius Freeman at the Center for American Political History, Media and Technology at Purdue University.
Now Reading
Sue Halpern on the totalitarian aspirations of the Silicon Valley elite for The New York Review of Books.
Anne Applebaum on the United States’ imperial adventure in Venezuela for The Atlantic.
Kim Phillips-Fein on Elon Musk for Dissent magazine.
Jessica Winter on Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s vision for New York public schools for The New Yorker.
Laura Marsh on “You Can See Everything” for The New Republic.
Photo of the Week
I saw this sign in Chicago the last time I was there and liked it quite a bit.
Now Eating: Baked Spanakopita Pasta with Greens and Feta
A delicious way to use up the odds and ends of herbs, greens and cheeses you might have in your fridge. Also very kid-friendly if, like me, you have to think about those things. Recipe comes from NYT Cooking.
Ingredients
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Salt and black pepper
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4 cups chopped spinach, Swiss chard or other mild greens (tough stems removed)
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4 cups chopped arugula, watercress or other peppery greens
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1 cup chopped fresh dill or parsley leaves and tender stems, or a combination
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6 scallions, trimmed and thinly sliced, whites and dark green parts separated
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1 pound tubular or curvy pasta, like rigatoni or fusilli
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2 tablespoons unsalted butter
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4 garlic cloves, peeled and thinly sliced
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8 ounces cream cheese (1 cup), cut into ½-inch cubes
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4 ounces mozzarella, grated (1 cup)
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4 ounces crumbled feta (1 cup)
Directions
Bring a large pot of salted water to a boil. Heat the oven to 450 degrees.
In a 3-quart/9-by-13-inch baking dish, toss the chopped spinach, arugula, herbs and scallion greens with 2 teaspoons salt and a few grinds of black pepper. Squeeze the mixture with your hands to wilt, then set aside.
Cook the pasta in the boiling water until 2 minutes shy of al dente; reserve 1 cup pasta water, then drain pasta and set aside. Return the pot to the stove.
Melt the butter in the pot over medium heat. Add the scallion whites, garlic and a pinch of salt, and cook until softened, 4 to 5 minutes. Add the cream cheese and pasta water and stir until smooth. Stir in the wilted greens, half the mozzarella and half the feta until combined. Stir in the pasta until combined. Taste and adjust seasonings as needed.
Transfer the pasta to the baking dish, then top with remaining mozzarella and feta. Bake until the sauce has thickened and turned bubbly, and the top has browned in spots, 10 to 15 minutes. If you like a crisper top, broil for a few minutes.
The post Republicans Are Crude, Craven, Cruel. It’s Not Working Anymore. appeared first on New York Times.
