Severe storms are expected to rumble onto the East Coast beginning during the Thursday evening rush, placing more than 32 million people along the Interstate 95 corridor under a flash flood threat from southern Connecticut to Virginia, including the New York City, Philadelphia and Baltimore metro areas.
As the threat shifts east, a level 3/4 flash flood risk has been issued for central and northern New Jersey and New York City for Thursday afternoon as drenching downpours are expected around the evening commute.
On top of a flash flood threat, a Tornado Watch is in place for over 15 million people across parts of Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia until 10 p.m. ET
Storms are advancing eastward after blasting parts of northeastern Arkansas and Kentucky late Wednesday, as well as Indiana, which is still reeling from last week’s deadly flooding.
Severe storms placed parts of southwestern Indiana under a Tornado Warning Wednesday afternoon.
More than 24,000 customers were still without power in southwestern Kentucky early Thursday. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) received a report of a possible tornado in Graves County overnight Thursday.
The cold front responsible for the severe weather is forecast to move east from the Ohio Valley through Thursday with an area of low pressure trailing behind it.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, this front is expected to stall Thursday evening over the Northeast coast down south into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Thunderstorms could produce rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour.
“A Flood Watch has now been extended farther to the north to include New York City and continues for most of New Jersey and far southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
“Intense rain rates and downpours over already saturated soils, could lead to flooding as well as urbanized flooding in Philadelphia and New York City.”
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a widespread Level 2 out of 4 risk of flash flooding Thursday along the I-95 corridor from Connecticut to Virginia, while 17 million people across parts of New Jersey and New York City face a higher Level 3 out of 4 risk.
Additionally, an area from Central New Jersey through parts of northern North Carolina is at greatest risk of severe storms that could also produce damaging wind gusts. This includes Washington, D.C. and the entire Delmarva.
A tornado or two will be possible around Philadelphia and across parts of central New Jersey if supercell thunderstorms form.
Storms are expected to taper through the evening.
By Friday, the stalled cold front is expected to allow more storms to develop over the same areas in Virginia, North Carolina and into coastal Maryland, where rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour could be possible.
The Level 2 flood threat will shift south Friday, covering an area from southern Delmarva to parts of central South Carolina.
As we move into the weekend, the area of low pressure could develop, potentially pushing rainfall north into the Interstate 95 corridor, but nothing is guaranteed just yet, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Rainfall is still expected to fall through Saturday evening in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are possible from North Carolina heading north up into coastal New Jersey, with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible.
If this forecast holds, the flash flood risk could be upgraded in the coming days, the FOX Forecast Center said.
The bullseye for the heaviest rain is also an area dealing with widespread severe to extreme drought across the Carolinas and Virginia.
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