Russian oil revenues nearly doubled in March, the International Energy Agency said in a report on Tuesday, as higher oil prices driven by the war in Iran provided a lifeline for the Kremlin while its budget ran record deficits.
Revenues from Russian exports of crude and refined products rose to $19 billion in March from $9.7 billion in February, the report said. The conflict in the Middle East pushed the price of Russian crude to $78 a barrel, up from nearly $46 a barrel, alongside price hikes for diesel and fuel oil.
The windfall arrived at a time of great need for the Kremlin. Last week, the Russian Finance Ministry reported that the national budget deficit exceeded $60 billion in the first three months of the year, surpassing the deficit number projected for all of 2026.
The March export surge was not yet reflected in Russia’s deficit figures; the additional revenue is expected to appear in April’s data.
Russia taxes its oil industry using a complex formula, but analysts predict that the state is likely to collect more than $6.6 billion in additional tax revenue from the surge. Still, experts noted that Russia would require a prolonged period of elevated prices to close its accumulated deficit.
After years of growth related to the war in Ukraine, which increased military spending and industrial production, the Russian economy entered a period of stagnation as high interest rates weighed on demand. This period coincided with lower oil prices, which lowered revenue from oil, forcing the Kremlin to run wider budget deficits in order to continue funding its war in Ukraine.
The I.E.A. report also said that Indian imports of Russian crude more than doubled in March after the United States lifted restrictions on purchases of Russian oil that was at sea before March 5. Overall, Russian exports increased by 270,000 barrels per day during March, the report said, despite Ukraine’s attacks on major Russian oil export terminals on the Black Sea and on the Baltics.
Ivan Nechepurenko covers Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the countries of the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
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