One month until Election Day, voter dissatisfaction with the economy, concerns about political extremism and frustration with President Trump have Democrats within reach of flipping four Republican-held governorships, opening a wide lead in Iowa and an expanding advantage in Ohio among likely voters, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena University.
In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican fixture in the state for decades, is now narrowly behind his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa.
The Democratic candidate also has an advantage in the race for governor of Alaska. The only place surveyed where the Republican is ahead in the campaign for the governor’s office in Kansas, now held by a retiring Democrat.
The polls also show Democrats with an advantage in the Senate in these states, with Democrats ahead in Texas and Alaska, and with the edge in Ohio, while the races in Kansas and Iowa are neck-and-neck.
While national attention has fixated on the fight for control of Congress, governorships will be important heading into a wide open presidential election in 2028. Not only will governors influence the electoral process, they will help shape the redistricting wars that are likely to spill into 2027 and beyond.
The polling results underscore how Democrats have been able to push into states that have traditionally favored Republicans, as voters have soured on Mr. Trump amid frustration over the economy, rising gas prices and a deeply unpopular war in Iran.
Still, the polls show that even as many of the Republican candidates for governor are at a disadvantage, they are outrunning the difficult political environment. Mr. Trump’s approval rating stands at just 40 percent across the five states. In four of five states surveyed, the Republican candidates for governor are doing better than the president’s approval ratings.
Democrats, meantime, are boosted by broadly well-liked candidates who are, for the most part, seen as more politically moderate than their Republican opponents.
Texas
In Texas, for example, just 28 percent of voters worried that Ms. Hinojosa was too far to the left, compared to 45 percent who were concerned Mr. Abbott was too far to the right.
Gov. Abbott was expected to have an easy path toward re-election in a state that hasn’t put a Democrat in the governor’s office since Ann Richards, who served one term before losing to George W. Bush in 1994.
Ms. Hinojosa, an Austin lawyer and former school-board president, has tried to turn the election away from national culture-war issues toward affordability, support for public schools and a backlash against the rapid construction of power- and water-hungry data centers.
Mr. Abbott retains an enormous financial advantage, but since Times/Siena poll in June, Ms. Hinojosa has picked up support among white voters, Hispanic voters, voters younger than 45 and independent voters.
Mark Rios, a 38-year-old Republican from Dallas, said he is supporting Ms. Hinojosa because he wants a fresh pair of eyes in office. He said he supported Mr. Trump in three elections but has seen higher gasoline prices since the president took office. The economy seems to be getting worse, he said.
“There needs to be a change,” Mr. Rios said.
Ms. Hinojosa is viewed far more positively than negatively in the state, though about a third of voters said they had not heard of or did not yet have an opinion of Ms. Hinojosa. By comparison, Texans know Mr. Abbott well after 11 years as governor and another 12 as attorney general. Forty-seven percent of voters viewed him positively, and another 47 percent viewed him negatively.
“It’s baffling to hear him say, ‘Oh, I’m fighting this and this and this.’ Dude, you’ve been there more than a decade, and your party has been in charge for forever. You’re the problem,” said Jeanette Fierro, a Democrat and hospital marketing director in Odessa, Texas.
Ms. Fierro, the daughter of immigrants from northern Mexico, said she knew little about Ms. Hinojosa when the campaigns began but believes Texans, particularly Hispanic voters, will embrace her if she can find the money to compete: “The more I have learned, as a Latina and a single mom, the more I like,” Ms. Fierro said. “She’s a chingona, you know? A badass.”
Iowa
The widest Democratic lead was in Iowa, where Rob Sand, the state auditor and the only Democrat holding statewide office, holds a an advantage over Republican businessman and farmer Zach Lahn to succeed Gov. Kim Reynolds, a conservative Republican who is retiring after nine years in office.
Mr. Sand has built his campaign around a bipartisan persona and a promise to address government accountability and the economy. He’s benefiting from high voter appeal: more than half of Iowa’s likely voters view him positively, including more than 20 percent of Republicans.
Since June, Mr. Sand has grown his support across nearly every demographic group. He is now ahead among voters over 65, a group that typically tilts Republican.
Iowa hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 2006.
Ohio
In Ohio, which also hasn’t voted in a Democratic governor in 20 years, a summer of bad news for the president and his party has taken a toll on the Republican candidate for governor.
The June Times/Siena poll showed billionaire pharmaceutical entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and the Democratic former state health director, Amy Acton, neck-and-neck. Now she has an advantage, including 11 percent of Mr. Trump’s 2024 supporters who say they intend to vote for Ms. Acton. She also has a significant lead with independent voters.
Alexandria Hensley, 27, described herself as conservative and voted for Mr. Trump two years ago, but said she wants a governor who will work toward “the middle ground.”
A domestic violence worker from Cincinnati, Ms. Hensley said her concerns were less about Mr. Ramaswamy and more about the economy, the spread of data centers and politics broadly. She said social issues such as whether transgender girls should be allowed to play on girls’ teams never mattered to her as much as politicians seem to think.
”Everyone seems to focus so much on what we disagree on, when I think we all tend to agree on more basic things,” she said.
Alaska
In Alaska, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins led a crowded August primary field and has maintained that advantage over three Republicans, Bernadette Wilson, a businesswoman and conservative radio host; Dave Bronson, a former Anchorage mayor; and Treg Taylor, a former Alaska attorney general, the poll found.
A former state legislator who helped lead a bipartisan coalition in the statehouse and won repeatedly in a district carried by Mr. Trump, Mr. Kreiss-Tomkins has promised his cabinet will include a balance of Democrats, Republicans and independents. All three of the Republican candidates are populist conservatives in the mold of Mr. Trump. Alaska’s current Republican governor, Mike Dunleavy, is barred from re-election by term limits.
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, but while Democrats have united around a single candidate, Republicans have not. Ms. Wilson urged Republicans to coalesce around one person, fearing that multiple candidates will benefit the Democrat. Mr. Bronson and Mr. Taylor declined, arguing that Republicans can use the system to their advantage as long as their potential voters don’t rank Mr. Kreiss-Tomkins.
Anita Baker, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel in Eagle River, Alaska, who supports Ms. Wilson, said she fears her fellow conservatives won’t understand the system. “You could add a couple of expletives to how worried I am,” she said.
Ms. Baker said she fears the damage a Democratic governor could do and still supports Mr. Trump.
“He might say things that make my eyebrows go up or make me scratch my head sometimes, but the policies are there,” she said.
The Times/Siena poll, which simulated the ranked-choice voting process, showed the three Republicans collectively winning a larger percentage of initial responses but Mr. Kreiss-Tomkins with a slight lead over Ms. Wilson after three rounds. He’s trying to become the youngest governor in Alaska history at 37 and the first Democrat elected to lead the state since 1998.
Kansas
Republicans can hope for their own flip in Kansas, where outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, won tight races in 2018 and 2022 despite the state’s conservative leanings. The Times/Siena poll showed the Republican state senate president, Ty Masterson, with a four-percentage-point lead over the Democrat, fellow state lawmaker Cindy Holscher.
Chris Martsolf, a 53-year-old commercial general contractor from Wichita, Kan., said Republicans are about as disorganized as Democrats these days. But after eight years of Democratic control, the governorship needs to go back to Republicans, he said.
“If we don’t win midterms, there probably will be no more Republican Party,” he said.
Voters in Kansas were the least likely to say their state is headed in the wrong direction, and a majority of Republicans say the economy in Kansas is excellent or good.
Mr. Masterson also benefits from some crossover appeal. He has the support of 8 percent of voters who say they also plan to support the Democrat in the Senate race, the Rev. Adam Hamilton.
Right now, Republicans hold 26 of the nation’s 50 governorships, so this year’s elections could tip the balance of power in statehouses. States operate independently, and the political philosophies within either major party can vary greatly from state to state. A Democrat on the liberal West Coast is very different than one in the Midwest or Southeast.
Still, Democratic organizers believe holding a majority of governorships would give them an additional bulwark against Mr. Trump on policies that cross state lines, including immigration enforcement, House gerrymandering and the rollback of health care funding and environmental regulations.
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