In today’s edition … You give me your thoughts about the death penalty … Democratic optimism extends to often-forgotten state legislative races … but first …
Democrats sound the money alarm in a key battleground
Democrats have money problems all over the country.
But the challenge may be most acute — and unexpected — in Wisconsin, a perennial presidential battleground long home to tight elections.
Ben Wikler, a former chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, put it this way: Democrats in the state are being battered with a “Thanos glove of Republican money” — a reference to the supervillain and his all-powerful glove from the Marvel franchise.
“Campaigns are running fewer ads. They’re splitting 30-second ads into 15-second chunks. They’re having to choose between defining themselves and defining their opposition,” said Wikler, detailing the difficult choices candidates must make. “At this point you’re just deciding where you want to lose by less.”
This is a problem for Democrats across the country despite an otherwise favorable political environment caused by President Donald Trump’s unpopularity.
The Democratic Party has struggled with fundraising since the 2024 election, and Trump’s courtship of some of the nation’s wealthiest individuals, like Tesla head Elon Musk, has led to considerably more giving to Republican causes. In Wisconsin, billionaires Diane Hendricks and Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein have been the primary money behind GOP causes in the state for years.
One issue hampering Wisconsin Democrats is that the state isn’t home to a topflight Senate race, which usually draws the attention of well-heeled out-of-state donors. The top of the ticket this cycle is a gubernatorial contest between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany, but the state is also home to multiple contested House races and a battle for control of the Republican-controlled legislature.
Recent polls show the race between Crowley and Tiffany is close. A Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin released yesterday had Crowley at 49 percent with likely voters and Tiffany at 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The same survey in August found Crowley at 49 percent and Tiffany at 44 percent.
In 2022, over $200 million was spent as Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) ran for reelection against Democrat Mandela Barnes.
The disparity this year is stark. According to data provided by Democrats in the state, Republicans focused on the race for governor are on track to outpace Democratic spending in every Wisconsin media market and could end up spending three times as much as Democrats on digital. This data also shows that Republicans focused on the gubernatorial race are outspending Democrats by an estimated $2.8 million this week alone.
“This would be a Democratic sweep of FDR or LBJ propositions if the Republicans discovered their bank accounts were empty tomorrow,” Wikler said.
According to AdImpact, a group that tracks spending on television and digital ads, Republicans are slated to spend nearly $78 million since the state’s primary in August. The Democrats are on track to spend around $58 million. One of the largest disparities is the governor’s race, where Republicans are primed to spend nearly$40 million in the general election, compared with Democrats’ $24 million. Democrats have a small advantage in the highly competitive district in the state’s southwest corner, which pits Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden against Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Cooke has been buoyed by $6 million in planned spending by House Majority PAC, the top outside group focused on taking back the House for Democrats.
The widespread flood of Republican spending is complicated by the expanding national map for Democrats. Because of the poor national environment for Republicans, Democrats now believe they are viable in states they never dreamed of even a few months ago.
I published a story this morning with my colleague Greg Schneider about how Democrats have newfound confidence in Mississippi’s Senate race, with top Democratic officials and donors increasingly hopeful that Democrat Scott Colom, the 43-year old district attorney for several counties in northeast Mississippi, could pull off the inconceivable and defeat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.
To put this into context: The last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Mississippi, Colom hadn’t been born yet. But Democratic leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (New York), are urging the party’s donors to give to Colom, signaling support for a race that wasn’t on Democrats’ map earlier this year.
Could a donor eager to give in Mississippi also give to candidates in Wisconsin? Sure. But money is finite, even for the wealthy, so a donor who is giving to long-shot House and Senate races may not spend on candidates in Wisconsin.
Wikler said he is happy that candidates in other states are competitive, but he was unequivocal about what could happen if Democrats don’t close their money disadvantage in Wisconsin.
“My nightmare scenario is one where Democrats assume everything’s fine,” said Wikler. “And Republicans keep adding to their money deluge; then, after the election, Democrats have picked up some seats in unexpected places, but have lost their once-in-a-generation shot at the Wisconsin trifecta from the governorship to the state legislative majorities.”
Want this in your inbox?
Start your day with The Washington Post’s flagship political newsletter. Sign up here.
From across the newsroom
- Trump loses favor with crypto fans who call him out for cashing in, from Isaac Arnsdorf.
- Hegseth details new initiatives in partisan address to troops, from Dan Lamothe and Alex Horton.
- U.S. withdraws forces in Iraq as balance of power shifts to Iran, from Mustafa Salim and Alex Horton.
- Pilot on Tel Aviv-bound flight tried to crash plane after cockpit stabbing, Netanyahu says, from Gerry Shih and Lior Soroka.
What I’m watching
It’s worth keeping an eye on state legislative races this year.
A lot of attention has been paid to how a Democratic wave could lead the party to take back both the House and the Senate. But a true wave election would also be felt at the state level, where Democrats have spent years rebuilding after taking hundreds of losses in legislative races during Barack Obama’s presidency.
Now, Democrats focused on state legislative races say the environment is right for the party to be competitive in more than 500 legislative districts — and win many of those contests.
“We have a huge opportunity,” said Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
For years, Democrats accused the party of ignoring state legislative contests, allowing Republicans to use the downballot races as a feeder system for higher office and to workshop some of the policies they would bring to the national level. From 2008 to 2016, Democrats lost just under 1,000 legislative seats across the country, a reality the party is still grappling with.
Williams told me that if Democrats do as well as they expect next month, this cycle could mark the moment the party recovered from the losses it took under Obama.
“I expect to see increases in Democratic conferences or caucuses in states across the country. More Democrats in the state legislature. In some cases — in many cases — that will come with hard-power implications, new majorities, new trifectas and broken supermajorities,” Williams said.
Democrats have their eyes on a number of downballot races this year, including in Michigan, where Democrats lost the state House in 2024; Pennsylvania, where they are protecting a one-vote margin in the House; Arizona, where Republicans control both chambers; North Carolina, where the party is working to deny Republicans a supermajority in the General Assembly; and Wisconsin, where Democrats believe they have a shot at a majority in both chambers.
The worsening environment for Republicans has also given Democrats hope in a number of other states that weren’t considered within reach earlier in the year, such as North Carolina, Georgia and Missouri, said Williams.
In your local paper
Pennsylvania Capital-Star: Pennsylvania is one of several states that have closed primaries, meaning only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary and only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. This week, the Pennsylvania House passed a bill that would allow third-party and independent voters to cast ballots in primary elections.
San Joaquin Valley Sun (California): Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is headed to the Central Valley to boost one of his top endorsements of the cycle, Randy Villegas, in his race against Republican Rep. David G. Valadao. Sanders will also campaign in California for the state’s proposed billionaires tax.
Arkansas Democrat Gazette: A new ad from Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) has enraged scores of some of her most ardent conservative supporters. The ad casts a young, White man playing video games as someone who abuses the welfare system, sparking anger among conservative influencers who think she is maligning White men.
From you
I was inundated yesterday with emails about the death penalty. And the overwhelming majority of you said you do not support the practice when asked about a case in Tennessee.
“I personally consider it abhorrent for one human being to decide the fate of another. But don’t get me wrong, on the issue of punishing the culprits. That’s why jails were invented, to put away deviant characters and protect the rest of law-abiding citizens,” said Nick Nteireho. “Incarceration gives the culprits enough time to reflect on their bad deeds, while a death sentence sends them to hell or wherever, with all their guilt.”
Beth Dimon said she believes people “don’t have that right to take the life of another human being. That’s just eye for an eye.”
And Debbie Orf added, “If you support the death penalty, you have to agree that it’s okay to put innocent people to death because there will always be cases that for one reason or another the wrong person has been convicted.”
Not all agreed.
“I support the death penalty whether the perpetrator be a female or male,” said Maria Garza. “An eye for an eye.”
Send a reply
My colleagues Alexei Koseff and Lydia Sidhom published this great piece about how taxpayers spent 21 percent more last year on a program that helps members of Congress cover the costs of food and lodging in Washington without requiring receipts. This fact stood out to me: “The program, launched three years ago, allows House members to supplement a $174,000 base salary that Congress has not raised in nearly two decades.” Maybe this is a crazy question, given people’s dim view of Congress right now, but should congressional salaries be raised? Or is that absurd, given that people already view lawmakers as doing so little? Let me and your fellow Early Brief readers know at [email protected].
Thanks for reading. You can follow me on X at @merica.
The post Democrats sound the money alarm in a key battleground appeared first on Washington Post.
