BEIRUT — For weeks now, President Trump has repeatedly promised — at least 37 times, by some estimates — an accord with Iran is around the corner. Yet an issue far removed from the conflict’s epicenter may end up being the biggest obstacle to any treaty: Lebanon.
That disruptive potential was well on display over 18 hours starting Sunday, when Israel attacked the Lebanese capital, Beirut, prompting Iran to lob missiles at Israel for what it said was its violation of the ceasefire. The Israeli strikes came after Hezbollah militants’ rockets hit northern Israel.
The fracas escalated to exchanges of missiles and airstrikes that threatened to plunge the region into full-blown conflict once again, and even widen the war to include Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
Calm was restored soon after President Trump somewhat frantically demanded that Israel and Iran “immediately stop ‘shooting.’” Later, he took a scolding tone when he insisted — yet again — that the negotiations would soon end the war, “subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way.”
But the situation underscored the fragility of Trump’s neither-war-nor-peace approach to the negotiations. Another reminder of the tenuous nature of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire came Tuesday, when Iran downed an U.S. Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. After Trump vowed the U.S. would respond out “of necessity,” the military launched strikes on Iranian targets.
For Israel, and especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the fragility of the ceasefire may be the point.
Many Israelis fear any U.S. deal with the Islamic Republic would leave them facing an implacable foe — one that, even without nuclear weapons, could threaten them with missiles or attacks from allies such as Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite militant group that Iran nurtured over decades into a capable paramilitary faction and political party.
“Trump doesn’t see Lebanon as a priority, so if he can reach a nuclear deal with Iran, he’s flexible on Lebanon,” said Joe Macaron, a Beirut-based geopolitical analyst. But Israel views Lebanon as a “key theater with which to have a veto on U.S.-Iran talks.”
“Whenever Netanyahu feels they’re close to be done, he does something in Lebanon, because this is the space where he can really impact the talks,” he said.
Multiple U.S.-brokered ceasefires between the Lebanese and Israeli governments have failed to stop the fighting. Hezbollah rejected all those pacts, including one signed last week that called on it to unilaterally halt operations and withdraw from southern Lebanon.
While Hezbollah continued attacking northern Israel, the Israeli military intensified its occupation of Lebanese territory.
Iran, meanwhile, says the ceasefire with the U.S. must see guns silenced on all fronts, including Lebanon — a position that is a nonstarter for Israel.
Though Iran complained about Israel’s earlier attacks in southern Lebanon, the strikes did not spur a reaction. But Tehran drew a red line on the Dahiyeh, the southern suburbs of Beirut where Hezbollah holds sway.
The exchanges this week were the worst breakdown in the U.S.-Iranian truce, but they weren’t the first time it was almost derailed by Israel’s campaign in Lebanon.
In April, Trump all but press-ganged Netanyahu into reducing hostilities with Hezbollah after powerful attacks on Beirut threatened to upend the ceasefire only days after it came into effect.
When Netanyahu this month ordered attacks on the Dahiyeh, Trump phoned the Israeli prime minister to tell him to call it off, excoriating him as “crazy.” Trump later said he was “a little bit perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon.”
Hezbollah joined the fight in March, a few days after the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran began, lobbing missiles and drones at northern Israel in solidarity with Iran and, it said, to respond to Israel’s repeated violations of a previous ceasefire, signed in November 2024.
Israel responded with a brutal air campaign and by deepening its ground invasion into southern Lebanon, in what it said was a bid to neutralize or destroy Hezbollah and create a buffer zone on Lebanese soil. So far, some 3,666 people have been killed, Lebanon’s Health Ministry says, while a quarter of the population has been displaced and more than a tenth of the country occupied.
That Netanyahu would risk angering Trump this week is partly a function of electoral politics. He faces reelection in October and is trailing in polls. He’s also contending with an Israeli public clamoring for a tougher line with Hezbollah, with or without U.S. approval.
Iran, meanwhile, has its own calculations in coming to Hezbollah’s aid, even if it meant triggering a wider conflagration.
“This was a multi-pronged effort at reasserting deterrence,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
“This was an existential war for Iran, and because it survived, it’s thinking of the day after,” Vakil said. “It wants to project to its people, but also the region, that it’s here to stay, that it’s an unpredictable Islamic Republic, not a defeated one.”
Iran’s new leadership also wanted to demonstrate that the more cautious policies espoused by the previous supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war, were no longer in play, Vakil added.
After the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, Israel pursued the so-called Axis of Resistance, a constellation of Iran-supported militias and governments that includes Hezbollah. Iran largely stood back while Israel eviscerated them and assassinated or toppled their leaders.
But this week’s confrontation with Israel, the first time Iran engaged in direct hostilities in defense of an ally, represents a significant shift, said Sadegh Larijani, head of Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council.
“Iran’s attack in defense of Lebanon was not merely a military response; rather, it was the formal declaration of a strategic doctrine,” said Larijani, the brother of Ali Larijani, Iran’s top security official, who was killedearly in the war.
“This action sent a clear message that if one of the sides of the Axis of Resistance is attacked, it will result in a response beyond geographical borders and will change the equations of the region,” Larijani said.
This week’s missile barrage also made for good PR, especially in Lebanon, where the government has moved to stop Iran’s patronage of Hezbollah and limit its influence on the country’s affairs. (Lebanon’s leadership has insisted on holding ceasefire negotiations with Israel, separate from those involving Iran.)
But for many Lebanese — especially Shiites who form the backbone of Hezbollah’s support — Iran’s willingness to go to war for Hezbollah contrasts sharply with the government’s conciliatory policies toward Israel, and not in the government’s favor.
“The Iranians won by points, because although they did nothing in Israel that was very damaging, they achieved a symbolic objective,” Macaron said.
It also seems clear that Iran sees opportunity in Trump’s reluctance to restart the war.
“The Iranians are reading Trump correctly. They recognize he wants out,” Vakil said.
“But they’re also calculating that none of this is going to go away or be easily resolved. And so they’re trying to hold on to this partnership [with Hezbollah] they’ve built over decades,” she said.
With neither side willing to back down, a new confrontation over Lebanon appears to be a matter of time.
On Tuesday, Israel ramped up strikes on Tyre, a city that before the war was home to about 100,000 people and considered southern Lebanon’s economic heart. Earlier in the day, the Israeli military issued, for the first time, evacuation orders for the entire city, including its Christian quarter, which was excluded from earlier assaults.
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