As with pretty much everything involving California governance, discerning the state’s election results can devolve into a big, unruly mess. To wit, Tuesday’s primary—particularly the free-for-all campaign for governor to succeed Gavin Newsom—remains too muddled to call, with millions of outstanding ballots likely yet to be counted.
At minimum, though, we can speak with some preliminary clarity, let’s call it, on the contest. California elections are consolidated via a “jungle primary” system, in which the top-two finishers, regardless of party, advance to November. As of today, the Trump-endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a British transplant and former Fox News host, is the leading vote-getter. Two Democrats—the former California attorney general and Joe Biden Cabinet secretary Xavier Becerra and the billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer—are currently sitting in second and third place, respectively. And there’s still a chance both could come from behind to squeeze out Hilton.
Democrats appear to have skirted a dreaded “Blue Armageddon” scenario in which their crowded field of middling-or-worse candidates cancel one another out, while the two middling-or-worse Republicans (Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco) advance to the final two. “Bullet dodged” seems to be the prevailing takeaway among Democrats. If Becerra or Steyer winds up facing Hilton, they will clearly be favored to win, given the state’s heavily Democratic makeup and what looks to be an overwhelmingly Democratic-friendly electoral environment across the country.
Still, even if Team Blue will likely win in the end, the California governor’s race has been a fiasco for Democrats from the start—and in ways that reflect an ongoing dysfunction that has become a feature of the party in recent years. Even worse, California in 2026 could portend a larger and more destructive performance from the party in 2028.
[Mark Leibovich: California’s Blue Armageddon]
For starters, Democrats won’t have Donald Trump to save them in the future, as he seems to be doing this year. The president’s unhinged behavior, bungled policies, cartoonish overreach, and GOP-undermining impulses have pretty much been the single best asset that Democrats have had going for them since the end of 2024—rather than them having any actual popularity of their own. For all the hand-wringing, blame-tossing, and “autopsy” reports that followed their 2024 election disaster, the Democratic Party remains a deeply broken brand, lacking in ideological coherence, unifying figures, and a compelling message beyond “Billionaires are bad” and “Trump is terrible.”
It’s also worth pointing out that Trump might have sabotaged his own party in the California governor’s race by supporting Hilton. After Trump offered his “COMPLETE & TOTAL ENDORSEMENT” of Hilton in April, Bianco’s ranking in the polls began dropping. As of today, he is running a distant fourth in the votes tallied so far.
Otherwise, the Democrats’ showing in the campaign has amounted to a pileup of debacles. For starters, none of the preferred candidates that Democratic voters might have rallied to—Kamala Harris, Senator Alex Padilla—opted to run. The ones who did—including the former House members Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell—were deeply flawed, self-destructive, or both, while a host of other unknowns and has-beens—including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa—went nowhere. One of the debates, a March forum at the University of Southern California, was abruptly canceled because of its exclusion of nonwhite candidates.
Through it all, Democrats showed no collective ability to recruit other, better contenders into the race, winnow the field, or even produce one or two candidates that voters were genuinely excited about. Steyer was a top contender in the race only because of his willingness to spend about $200 million of his own money on pervasive TV and digital ads. Becerra, meanwhile, is the leading Democrat right now because he is the best-known, least offensive member of his party still standing. He is also prone to prickliness and has received underwhelming reviews from some of his former colleagues in the Biden administration. And although he boasts a deep and varied résumé, little in Becerra’s background indicates that he’s up to the job of leading the biggest, most complex, and most unpredictable state in the nation.
An added wrinkle, based on Newsom’s experience, is that Trump will almost certainly target California and its next governor with all manner of abuse and provocation. Newsom, it turned out, possessed the instincts and personality to be a worthy foil to Trump and a defender of left-leaning California values. Does Becerra? Or, for that matter, does the great liberal avenger Steyer the Barbarian?
[Marc Novicoff: L.A.’s lose-lose-lose primary]
Because this is California—and Hilton is no Ronald Reagan—Becerra (or possibly Steyer) looks like a good bet to extend the Democratic dynasty in Sacramento. The state has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger won his second term, two decades ago.
Yet the race for the White House in 2028 will be far less forgiving for Democrats. It will be refreshing to have new candidates in the field, no Bidens or Clintons on the ballot, and debates about ideas without the specter of “Trump is bad” overshadowing everything else. But if, to this point, the California governor’s race offers any lesson for Democrats, it’s that it is hard to run a wide-open primary without established leaders, a strong party structure, or agreed-upon rules and referees to keep things on track.
Come 2028, the Democrats (and Republicans) will have another free-for-all on their hands, and with higher stakes. God willing, the candidate field will be more appealing than it has been in the California primary. Thankfully, it’s over, or will be eventually.
The post California Democrats Avoided the Worst-Case Scenario appeared first on The Atlantic.
