Why is the world conspiring to spoil America’s 250th birthday, and, more important, Donald Trump’s 80th? Like a Roman emperor, Trump has busied himself with self-aggrandizing public works, such as a massive triumphal arch, and is staging gladiatorial sports in his own honor, in the form of a UFC fight on the White House lawn on June 14. A string of recent setbacks reveals that Trump is no omnipotent emperor after all, but an American president who—more and more—is forced to fold.
On Monday, Axios and The New York Times reported that the administration was dropping its plans for the Department of Justice to create an “anti-weaponization” fund, after other Republicans recoiled at its terms and a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction preventing its operation. This fund was set up as a settlement of Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS (an agency he controls) over the leaking of his tax returns. Trump was suing for $10 billion in damages, but withdrew his lawsuit against himself in exchange for the creation of a slush fund of $1.776 billion (get it?) for those who felt victimized by “lawfare.” Participants in the January 6 riot, already pardoned by the president, were eagerly awaiting the chance to apply for reparations. (Though the Justice Department had helpfully clarified, “There are no partisan requirements to file a claim.”)
Trump’s apparent retreat marks the defeat not just of a harebrained scheme, but of one of his signature policy innovations: the idea that federal law ought to be applied unequally, to punish his foes and dole out benefits to his friends.
Many of Trump’s other bold ideas have hit snags, too. The unilateral tariffs that he imposed on the rest of the world were ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in February; in May, the Court of International Trade also invalidated his stand-in measure of 10 percent tariffs. At the start of this year, Trump caught the foreign-interventionism bug and captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and then, emboldened by that success, launched a war alongside Israel on Iran. This has gone less spectacularly than the Venezuelan operation: Despite the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has refused to capitulate and has instead proven that, despite being militarily outmatched, it can inflict pain on the rest of the world by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Peace negotiations have dragged on for months, and the president is bored by it all. “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly. I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less,” he told CNBC today.
Perhaps these setbacks explain why the president has turned towards more immediate concerns—capital beautifications. But he has encountered disappointments there, too. Congressional Republicans, who are working through a budget bill, announced that they would not allocate $1 billion to build Trump’s beloved White House ballroom project. On Friday, a judge ruled against the president’s attempts to unilaterally rechristen the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C., as the “Trump Kennedy Center” and ordered his name and likeness removed from its marble facade. After a string of musical artists bowed out of performing at America’s 250th-anniversary celebration, Donald Trump suggested that he be the headline act instead.
On foreign affairs, the president is experiencing the same reality check that many of his predecessors have: the U.S. military listens to the commander-in-chief, but the rest of the world may not. At home, the mighty executive branch must still operate under the constraints imposed by the other two branches.
Although the judiciary has been the primary bulwark against the president’s excesses, even a Republican-run Congress can, very occasionally, assert its enormous constitutional powers. Its unwillingness to bless a slush fund for the president’s allies, an ever-so-slight display of resistance, may also reflect a political reality: The Republicans are bracing for a terrible midterm election in November, as a result of Trump’s deep unpopularity and voter anger over the high costs of everyday life. Despite Republican gerrymandering efforts, Trump’s party will probably lose control over at least one chamber of Congress, and, with that, its chance at passing major legislation for the next two years.
Despite Trump’s occasional insinuations that he might run for a third term, there will clearly be a normal succession battle. Perhaps that is why the president is so consumed by his legacy. Though he may still act as kingmaker, Trump’s power will wane as soon as his successor is picked.
Trump’s focus has been on unilateral executive power, not legislation. As a result, he has left little imprint on American policy that cannot be undone by a successor. In Rome, emperors ruled for life; they left their names on buildings and their faces on currency to ensure their immortality. In America, presidents are not meant to be so exalted. Trump is trying his hardest to defy this fundamental fact of governing a republic. But it’s harder and harder to believe he will succeed.
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