Rep. Eric Swalwell’s scandal-tainted departure from the California governor’s race has given new life to a crowded group of contenders but has also exposed a surprisingly weak Democratic bench in the country’s most populous blue state.
The field, including billionaire Tom Steyer, former congresswoman Katie Porter, and several state and local politicians, is getting second looks from voters who had not been paying much attention to the race before Swalwell’s exit.
“But it’s not necessarily good interest, it’s kind of this, ‘Wow, what is this field of candidates?’” said Brian Brokaw, a Democratic political consultant who is not affiliated with any of the gubernatorial campaigns.
The lack of a clear Democratic front-runner to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who is term-limited, has raised concerns within the party. High-profile Democrats who could have cleared the field, including former vice president Kamala Harris, declined to enter the race. Some feared that support divided among more than a half-dozen prominent Democrats who did run would result in two Republicans advancing to the general election from the unusual June 2 jungle primary.
Swalwell was one of the top-polling candidates until sexual misconduct allegationsupended his campaign. He dropped out of the race on Sunday and resigned from Congress on Tuesday, giving other Democrats a chance to siphon his support.
Steyer, who is tapping into his fortune to outspend his competition, and Porter are the other front-runners who stand to benefit most from Swalwell’s departure, according to several California political strategists. But Democratic candidates who had been all but written off — including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former U.S. health secretary and state attorney general Xavier Becerra — are trying to seize on the upheaval to break into the top tier.
Steyer’s campaign has touted new endorsements since the Swalwell news became public Friday, including from Rep. Jared Huffman (D) and six state lawmakers, two of whom previously backed Swalwell. Porter’s campaign has not announced new endorsements but released a memo claiming that Swalwell’s supporters are more likely to shift toward her, noting that she has performed on par with Steyer despite being vastly outspent.
After Swalwell’s campaign imploded, wealthy donors poured millions to boost Mahan, a more centrist candidate and the only top contender to hold elected office in the San Francisco Bay Area. On Tuesday, a super PAC backing Mahan launched an ad campaign in every state media market except for the Bay Area after receiving $12 million in pledged donations over the weekend alone to support the efforts, according to the group’s campaign manager, Matt Rodriguez.
California governors wield significant influence commanding the world’s fourth-largest economy and a hub for resistance to the Trump administration. The governors must confront serious threats, including a housing crisis and regular environment disasters such as droughts and wildfires.
Voters have been apathetic. In mid-March, an unusually large share of voters could not offer an opinion on the gubernatorial candidates, according to findings from the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California at Berkeley.
None of the candidates received more than 17 percent of support, and the top two candidates were Republicans — former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. After them came Swalwell and Porter with 13 percent each and Steyer with 10 percent.
The numbers spooked Democrats, who feared a scenario in which voters in a deep-blue stronghold would be left with two Republican candidates on the ballot. In California, all candidates appear on the same primary ballot regardless of party, and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election.
President Donald Trump relieved Democratic anxiety last week when he endorsed Hilton, increasing the odds that Republicans would coalesce around him.
Now, a two-Republican election is even less likely if support for Bianco falls and the Democratic vote splits among fewer candidates, said Rob Stutzman, a GOP consultant in California.
Name recognition and money goes a long way in California, where candidates struggle to reach large swaths of voters in expensive advertising markets. That’s why modern governors were usually statewide officeholders before, like Newsom, a former lieutenant governor, or celebrities, such as Republicans Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ronald Reagan.
But this year, some of the well-known Democrats who could easily raise money decided not to run. Harris, who was a California attorney general and represented the state in the U.S. Senate before she became vice president, was widely seen as the prohibitive favorite had she entered the race. She is instead considering another presidential campaign. Sen. Alex Padilla (D), widely seen as a potential Newsom successor, also opted not to run, saying last year that he wanted to continue his work in Congress. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) withdrew from the race, and Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) instead ran for reelection — despite their offices often being a stepping stone to the governor’s mansion.
Swalwell had started to rise above his Democratic rivals despite little experience in state government because he had received endorsements from major unions and other Democrats in California’s congressional delegation, including Reps. Jimmy Gomez and Adam Gray, who chaired his campaign, and Sen. Adam Schiff. He was also a known Trump antagonist after serving as a manager in the second impeachment case against the president during his first term and briefly seeking the Democratic presidential nomination in 2019. Swalwell also often appeared on cable television.
The next two weeks will be key to determining who will benefit most from Swalwell’s exit ahead of the primary by picking up his former endorsers and receiving funding that would have gone to him, according to political strategists. Mail ballots will be sent out May 4.
Porter, who flipped a House seat in red Orange County in 2018 and unsuccessfully ran in the Senate primary in 2024, has also leaned into her brand as a staunch Trump critic. She received national attention as a sharp questioner of Trump administration officials in Congress and became known for often bringing a whiteboard to hearings. But she has also drawn scrutiny over allegations that she mistreated staff and for nearly walking out of a contentious interview with a local television reporter.
Steyer, who made a fleeting presidential bid in 2020, has deep pockets. His campaign has spent at least $114 million on ads, according to data from AdImpact. But he is trying to win support for his affordability-focused populist campaign from a liberal base often leery of billionaires. He has faced criticism for his former hedge fund’s investment in a company that now operates immigrant detention centers.
But his financial advantage may prove difficult to overcome.
“Tom’s tough,” Bonta told The Washington Post. “He’s got money to burn, and he’s got a message that a lot of people like.”
Bonta said the remaining candidates who have polled in the single digits will have a tough time becoming competitive.
Many political observers have been surprised that Becerra has lagged in polls despite his high profile as a Cabinet member under President Joe Biden, a former statewide elected official and a congressman representing part of Los Angeles County for more than two decades. He and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, the Democrat who finished behind Newsom in the 2018 gubernatorial primary but has struggled to gain traction this time, are also the only leading Latino candidates in the heavily Latino state.
State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, the only current statewide elected official in the race, and Betty Yee, a former state controller, also struggled have to break through in the race.
Amanda Renteria, a Democratic strategist who ran for governor in 2018, said Swalwell’s departure could elevate candidates with more experience in government, such as Becerra.
“This could be one of those rare moments where primary voters take a look at the entire slate with a lens toward character,” Renteria said.
Scott Wiener, a Democratic state senator from San Francisco who is running for former House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s seat, said he hopes a candidate from his party will emerge as a clear leader in the weeks to come. Wiener, who has not endorsed a candidate, said the next governor is crucial to combating the Trump administration’s conservative agenda.
“I just truly hope that the race can start crystallizing so that we can move forward,” he said.
Liz Goodwin contributed to this report.
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