The race for mayor of Los Angeles is a dead heat as the campaign draws to a close, with a new poll showing incumbent Karen Bass erasing the double-digit lead previously held by Councilmember Nithya Raman.
Raman and Bass now each have 40% of likely L.A. voters in their camps, with 19% still undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 election, according to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by The Times.
The neck-and-neck contest is a big change from September, when Raman jumped out to an 11-percentage-point lead with support from 39% of likely voters compared with Bass at 28%.
It follows weeks of relentless attacks on Raman by Bass, whom some analysts had predicted would need to campaign more aggressively to close the gap with her challenger.
“It’s certainly a breath of fresh air for Bass to see the race close. She’ll probably feel the campaign is having the effect she wants it to have, which is to put more focus on Raman and put Raman on the defensive,” said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll.
The survey released Wednesday was conducted online in English and Spanish with a sample of 2,197 likely city voters between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25. It has a margin of error of about three percentage points.
The leveling off of the race, along with the sharp decline in undecided voters, was spurred largely by conservative voters who chose Republican Spencer Pratt in the primary deciding to vote for the mayor in the runoff, said DiCamillo.
In the September Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times poll, 22% of Pratt voters said they planned to support Bass, while 16% said they favored Raman. That left a whopping 63% of Pratt voters undecided still.
In the new poll, Bass shot up to 41% of the Pratt vote, while Raman dropped to 14% and 45% were still undecided. Pratt hasn’t endorsed either candidate in the race and continues to bash both Raman and Bass on social media.
“The Pratt voters are the biggest insertion,” DiCamillo said. “The question remains, since we’re looking at Pratt voters, 45% remain undecided. Will they vote?”
Raman trailed Bass in every poll during the primary campaign. Neither candidate had ever cleared 40% in any of the polls conducted by Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times.
In the June 2 primary election, Bass received 34% of the vote while Raman received 29%. Pratt placed third with 26%.
In the new poll, Raman shed support in key areas, including among groups that previously appeared to be leaning toward her.
In the September poll, Raman led among Latinos by 24 percentage points, 45% to Bass’ 21%. In the October poll, Bass was up to 40% and Raman fell to 43%, leaving the two within the margin of error for that key constituency.
DiCamillo said part of that change had to do with the likely voter population becoming more clear as the election neared, and older Latinos appeared to be a larger portion of the electorate.
“The Latino likely electorate now includes more older Latinos; that benefits Bass,” he said.
Black voters, long considered the backbone of Bass’ coalition, solidified behind the mayor, with 71% of likely Black voters supporting her compared with 13% supporting Raman. While Bass led among Black likely voters in the September poll, the already wide margin was much slimmer at that time, at 48% to 20%.
The poll also affirmed a widely held belief among the Bass camp that the San Fernando Valley would tilt toward the mayor over Raman.
Raman was leading in the Valley in the September poll 34% to 26%, but that number flipped on its head over the past month, with Bass now in front of Raman 44% to 33%.
Bass’ surge in the poll was more notable because the mayor’s favorable ratings — which have been in the tank since the January 2025 wildfires — remained underwater, with 65% of Angelenos viewing her unfavorably compared to 64% in the last poll. Only 32% had a positive view of the mayor, up four percentage points from September.
Bass’ attacks on Raman appeared to be having a significant effect on voters’ opinions of the challenger.
For the first time in a poll by Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times this cycle, Raman posted a higher unfavorable rating than favorable, with 49% of likely voters saying they viewed her unfavorably compared to 42% who had positive views of her.
The mayor, her campaign team and her surrogates have stepped up their offensive toward Raman, seizing on any opportunity to hammer the council member over remarks she has made on the campaign trail that they argue make the her unfit for the mayoralty and “not ready for prime time” — a slogan the mayor and her allies have deployed against their rival.
In early October, the Bass campaign slammed Raman over a video she posted with a leftist influencer in which she urged viewers to “stop fascist liars” as a photo of Bass flashed on the screen. Raman criticized both Bass and LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell in the video.
Bass accused the council member of calling the city’s police officers fascists. A Raman spokesperson said she was referring to the “Trump administration’s violent kidnappings” as fascist, not the mayor or police chief or officers. The story dominated headlines for days.
The Bass camp also needled Raman that week after photos surfaced of the council member attending a happy hour on the day federal immigration authorities began raids in Los Angeles last summer, though Raman said she attended a protest that same day.
The Bass campaign sent out a news release calling it “Nithya Raman’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week.”
The attacks continued the next week after Raman said during the mayoral debate that the “gold standard” for LAPD’s noncooperation with immigration enforcement took place during the tenure of former LAPD Police Chief Daryl F. Gates.
Gates, a controversial chief accused of racist remarks during his tenure, headed the department during the 1991 videotaped beating of Rodney King and Bass said Raman’s comments showed she was “not really familiar with L.A., especially the Black community.”
Raman retorted that Bass was twisting her words, but later apologized, saying that mentioning Gates was painful for people across L.A.
The poll also asked respondents for the top priorities for the next mayor to address. Reducing the number of homeless encampments was by far the top answer, chosen by 43% of likely voters.
Tied for second place among top concerns was ensuring public safety and building more affordable housing, selected by 29% each.
Protecting immigrant communities was the third-most cited concern, with 21%, followed by balancing the city budget at 17%.
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