Immigration and Customs Enforcement leaders seem to be trying to maintain a lower profile for the agency in the run-up to the midterms, and no wonder. The issue that two years ago helped Donald Trump regain the Oval Office is now, because of ICE’s excesses, dogging Republicans ahead of the Nov. 3 vote. But don’t count on the administration to continue so cautiously after the midterms.
A memo last Wednesday banned ICE officers from undertaking high-speed chases and limited vehicle stops to officers with requisite training. This followed at least four fatal shootings by ICE officers after vehicle stops escalated when drivers didn’t cooperate.
The Daily Wire, a conservative publication, reported on Sept. 26 that ICE officers across the country have been told, for the time being, to stop arresting illegal immigrants without criminal convictions or charges. According to the report, officers were also told to hold off on “collateral arrests,” which occur when agents come across undocumented migrants while pursuing other targets. The Department of Homeland Security called the report “false” and said “no one is off the table.” Border czar Tom Homan then clarified to NewsNation that the administration is prioritizing the “worst of the worst” but that non-criminals are still subject to arrest.
This is the latest manifestation of the push-and-pull dynamic that has existed since Trump returned to power, pitting nativist hard-liners against pragmatists who appreciate the net economic value of immigrants. Depending on who spoke with him last and the politics of that particular moment, Trump himself moves between the two camps.
In July, after back-to-back fatal shootings in Maine and Texas, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said ICE would pause nonurgent traffic stops. But Trump publicly reversed Mullin’s directive the next day, posting on social media that traffic stops are one of ICE’s “most important and effective Crime Fighting tools.”
The clearest manifestation of the internal tension pits the quantity of deportations against the quality of arrests. Quotas should never take priority over safe and competent operations. A tailored approach is preferable to a messy dragnet. That’s true for the purposes of public safety, politics and economics.
Polling shows ICE’s overreach has alienated many non-MAGA Republicans. The GOP badly needs these voters to turn out next month, even in Kansas, Texas and other red states. This explains why candidates have started to create daylight on the issue between themselves and the administration.
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas), unexpectedly vulnerable, is now calling for ICE to coordinate more closely with local law enforcement. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), in a competitive reelection fight, has started highlighting her efforts to release “dreamers” — recipients of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals — from ICE custody. Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Florida), who represents a Miami-area district Trump won, aired a commercial last month saying that parts of the administration’s immigration agenda “have gone too far.”
The downstream effects of mass deportations might also be exacerbating the economic headaches hurting the party in power. With high beef prices frustrating voters, for example, meatpacking industry organizations are blaming ICE for targeting workers in the processing chain. The Texas Cattle Feeders Association, the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association and the Kansas Livestock Association issued a joint statement on Sept. 24 complaining that ICE operations are leading to shipment delays, resulting in lost revenue. Mullin denied carrying out worksite raids in Kansas and said that ICE is “targeting heinous criminals,” but arrests across the three states could cause employees to miss work.
Regardless of the outcome of November’s elections, it’s a safe bet that enforcement will become more aggressive during Trump’s last two years in office. ICE has an internal goal of hiring 5,000 more employees by the end of the year, the New York Times reports. This is in addition to the 8,000 new hires since the start of last year, which has brought the total ICE workforce to nearly 30,000.
Most of the fresh recruits are expected to work as deportation officers. It will be challenging to adequately vet and train so many people before deploying them. A hurried ICE expansion would be a recipe for continuing chaos.
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