From afar, Republicans’ Senate map looks pretty smudged at best. This was the year in which the GOP was favored to hold their majority, and Democrats’ aspirations for taking back control viewed as pipe dreams. But here we are, in October of an election year, with polls showing Democrats potentially leading in competitive Senate races in Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, even Texas. The fact that reporters in Washington are now setting alerts for Senate contests in Alaska, Iowa, and South Dakota says as much about the fast-moving environment as President Donald Trump’s terrible standing in the polls.
But New Hampshire, whose independent streak sometimes borders on contrarian, may be Republicans’ best chance for an upset over a Democratic contender—in this case Rep. Chris Pappas. And the GOP is throwing more money into the Live Free or Die state in hopes of making it happen.
Why Republicans are hopeful about New Hampshire comes down to one word: Sununu.
The Republican candidate, John E. Sununu, is not only a former Senator, but part of a New Hampshire political dynasty. Both his father, John H. Sununu, and brother, Chris Sununu, are former governors of the Granite State. The Sununu name is about as bullet-proof in New Hampshire as the party could find. His one term in the Senate from 2003 to 2009 was well-regarded in the state for his willingness to cross party lines, particularly his opposition to the post-9/11 PATRIOT Act over provisions that were anathema to the libertarian-minded New Hampshire voters.
In Michigan and Georgia, two other states Republicans are targeting for Senate flips, Reps. Mike Rogers and Mike Collins have struggled to convince voters they will be more than Trumpist Yes Men. No one is really confusing any member of the Sununu clan for a MAGA cheerleader. His family has long been seen as aligned with the Bush wing of the party—his father was George H.W. Bush’s White House chief of staff—and his brother was a prominent Trump critic.
When Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her plans to retire last March, Democrats quickly coalesced around Pappas as her successor. A former state legislator, and small-business owner, Pappas’ ethos matches the vibe of voters in the famously fickle state—no one would mistake him for a democratic socialist or a woke culture warrior.
The race is now in an odd limbo state, where the Democrat appears to have the advantage, but a closer look reveals why Republicans aren’t giving up. A New York Times poll released late last month week found Sununu trailing by five points. But it also found 42% of New Hampshire voters think the Republican nominee “has good character.” Among independent voters—who normally decide elections in New Hampshire—Sununu has a 10-point advantage over Pappas on the character question.
Yet the same poll has Trump at 60% disapproval among all New Hampshire voters, and that number hits 65% among independents. If the final five weeks of this campaign become nationalized—as many Democrats hope—then that number could be an anchor heavier than any political pedigree.
All of this uncertainty comes as the conservative Senate Leadership Fund announced $17 million in spending for Sununu, the Trump-backed No Going Back PAC is ready with $10 million in ads, and the Koch-minded Americans for Prosperity Action is already on the record with more than $2 million. In all, by most estimates, outside spending has already topped $50 million in a race with fewer than 1 million registered voters.
The pace of spending has left both campaigns frustrated. As New Hampshire Public Radio reports, Sununu acknowledged how the noise complicates things during a stop last week. “You’ve got to work really hard to keep your message focused to break through to make sure people can appreciate you for who you are, what you have to offer, what kind of leader you will be,” Sununu said.
That hasn’t meant an easy glide for Pappas, though. “It’s crazy. This is no way to run a democracy. The fact is we’ve got to get big money out of politics,” Pappas said last Monday during an interview with Boston 25 News. “It’s very clear we are being outspent.”
Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Democrats, announced an initial $10 million commitment to help the 46-year-old four-term House member perhaps become the first openly gay man elected to the Senate. It’s a big outlay, but still dwarfed by Republican dollars.
Democrats know they have to keep the New Hampshire seat to have any shot at becoming a majority in the new Senate, but Pappas may face an enthusiasm shortage. While 75% of Democrats say they’re satisfied with Pappas as their nominee, it’s certainly short of the 85% of Republicans who say the same about Sununu. In a state that small, the enthusiasm gap and party unity really matter.
Another polling dynamic keeps getting flagged by Republicans working in New Hampshire or those keeping an eye on the race from Washington: while Democrats have a 9-point edge in voters who would rather see a Democratic Senate than a Republican one, Pappas’ lead in the poll is just five points. Add in that 8% of voters who prefer a Democratic Senate but claim that they plan to cast a ballot for Sununu anyway, and it’s clear this race is far from decided.
Of course, if a blue wave does swamp Senate races across the country, anyone who’s followed New Hampshire politics for a spell would not be at all surprised to see it bucking the trend. Such a move would be very on-brand for New Hampshire.
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