Outside the clubhouse at a golf resort nestled into the mountains framing Oro Valley, Ariz., Logan Bigelow corralled golf carts for players as he tallied how much he had benefited from a law enacted last year that limited taxes on tips.
Mr. Bigelow, 28, figured his tax refund had increased by $200 to $300, and some of his friends who work as bar backs at nightclubs in Tucson, pulling in as much as $700 in tips in a night, had noticed bigger boosts.
But none of it seemed like enough to make up for the other costs he and his friends were shouldering.
“I wish it helped out a little more than it did,” Mr. Bigelow said in an interview. “The cost of gas — it’s getting outrageous. And how much health care premiums have gone up is out of control.”
Republicans in Congress had hoped the major tax-and-spending-cut bill they muscled into law last year would redeem them on the campaign trail as they try to beat historical odds to keep their majorities in November’s midterm elections.
But in an election that has increasingly become defined by the high cost of living, the benefits of the measure — including sharply restricting federal income taxes on tips and overtime — appear to be getting swamped by economic stress. That stress has been exacerbated by the war with Iran, as well as other moves Republicans have made that yanked government support that many Americans rely on. Among those was the G.O.P. refusal to extend health care subsidies under the Affordable Care Act that expired last year, causing dramatic premium spikes like those Mr. Bigelow cited.
Arguably the only major legislative accomplishment congressional Republicans have mustered during the two years of their slim governing trifecta, G.O.P. leaders and vulnerable incumbents have promoted the bill as an answer to voter concerns about rising costs.
“We have more jobs coming home, more wages rising, more working families keeping more of what they earn, and that is our affordability agenda,” Speaker Mike Johnson said last month during a campaign stop in a swing district in Arizona. “There is more and more of that on the way.”
House Republicans’ super PAC began running television and digital ads behind the message almost immediately after the bill passed, and recently announced a more than $22 million campaign both promoting the tax cuts and attacking Democrats for opposing them.
One ad targeting Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Democrat of Washington, features constituents lamenting that she “voted for the largest tax hike in U.S. history” and “voted to tax seniors like me.”
The Tax Foundation, a think tank that generally favors lower taxes, found in February that taxpayers would see a nearly $2,300 average tax cut in 2026 as a result of the legislation, which extended the tax cuts passed during President Trump’s first term and created a handful of new, temporary cuts.
But there are signs those benefits are not motivating voters as much as Republicans had hoped.
An NBC poll in September found that 42 percent of voters said they were less likely to support a candidate backing the measure, while 36 percent said they were more likely to support one. A Politico poll in July found one in three Americans polled said it had hurt their personal finances, compared to the 8 percent who said it had greatly helped.
In southeast Arizona, which has one of the critical races that will determine control of the House, Representative Juan Ciscomani, a two-term Republican, is leaning heavily on the tax cut measure as a selling point.
The legislation has become a central issue in the race. His Democratic challenger, JoAnna Mendoza, a retired Marine and former executive director of a group advocating a more progressive tax policy in the state, has hammered Mr. Ciscomani over the cuts to social safety net programs included in the bill. Mr. Ciscomani, in turn, has attacked Ms. Mendoza for opposing the tax cuts, as well as a slew of others considered in recent years by the state legislature.
It has been a frequent talking point for vulnerable Republicans campaigning for re-election across the country. In Pennsylvania, an ad in support of Representative Ryan Mackenzie showed the manager of a restaurant who said limiting taxes on tips had “made a real difference for our employees.” In Iowa, Representative Zach Nunn highlighted the provision at an August event with workers at a bar and grill in Ankeny, where he appeared with the acting labor secretary.
Darrell Hussman, the president of the Tucson Police Officers Association, which has endorsed Mr. Ciscomani, said that his members had benefited from the limiting of taxes on overtime included in the G.O.P. legislation.
The Tucson Police Department is understaffed, Mr. Hussman said, and officers had been working so much overtime that the department recently imposed a cap requiring special permission to work more than 25 extra hours in a week. His officers reported seeing anywhere from $500 to a few thousand extra dollars on their tax refund.
“That, to me, is thrilling,” he said. “We see there’s a benefit, and with prices going up — gas alone, you see the wear and tear. But now these officers are able to afford a little bit more for their family and themselves.”
Yet in conversations with nearly two dozen tipped workers across the district — bartenders and blackjack dealers at a casino, cart drivers at a golf club, and servers at sports bars, dive bars, a Waffle House and a fine-dining restaurant — there was only muted enthusiasm for the “no tax on tips” provision.
Most said it had made a welcome but small difference, but became more impassioned when they began rattling off the increasingly unmanageable prices of gas and groceries. At least two tipped workers, including a blackjack dealer, said they had never heard of the tax cut.
Among its more celebrant backers was Alex Vargas, 20, who works during the day as a bartender and server at a golf club in Oro Valley, and at night at a popular Mexican restaurant in Tucson. He estimated making $700 in tips a week at the golf club, and $200 to $400 a night at the restaurant.
The new law, he said, had made “a big difference,” because he gets the majority of his income from tips. He plans to put away the extra money he receives from his tax refund to open his own business.
But while Mr. Vargas cited keeping taxes low as one of his highest priorities, he also said he had grown disillusioned with Mr. Trump’s immigration crackdown.
“It shouldn’t be as black and white,” said Mr. Vargas, who said he had not previously voted but planned to do so in November. (He declined to say how.)
Eve Woods, 21, works as a server and bartender at a casino where campaign ads about the legislation were playing on televisions hanging next to blackjack tables and slot machines.
She said she noticed a “slight increase” on her tax refund this year, though it “wasn’t that much.”
“Honestly, the main issue I am focused on is minimum wage — we only get $6.50 — so that’s really a make-it-or-break-it type of deal,” Ms. Woods said. “The no tax on tips is good, but I think wages definitely need to increase. I could serve you $1,000, but it doesn’t mean you’ll give a 20-percent tip.”
Ms. Woods, who said she tends to support Democrats, did not vote in 2024 because she felt “conflicted” about her options. But she said she planned to cast a ballot in November, citing in part her unhappiness with the cuts to the food assistance program ushered in by the tax cuts legislation.
In an effort to defray the cost of the tax cuts that were the centerpiece of the package, Republicans included substantial reductions to Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and other government aid, squeezing many voters.
In Arizona, cuts to food stamps have hit particularly hard. The number of people in the state getting SNAP benefits has fallen by about half in less than a year, in part because of bureaucratic red tape.
Lisa Fitzgibbons, the mayor of Casa Grande, a desert city of about 60,000 south of Phoenix, said that the cuts in the legislation were starting to take effect at a time when her constituents were already financially struggling.
A needs assessment conducted by Pinal County found that 64 percent of residents reported running out of food before their next paycheck.
“There are certain pieces that are benefiting people, but then there’s others that are really hurting people,” Ms. Fitzgibbons said of the law. “These issues that are going to come up are really going to hurt people even more. People are struggling right now.”
Ms. Fitzgibbons said that local nonprofits in Casa Grande had “seen unbelievable numbers” of people asking for food, and that the Walmart had seen a large reduction in sales.
“People are almost at their wits’ end,” she said. “They’re like, ‘OK, enough is enough here.’”
The post With Costs High, Tax Cuts May Fall Flat for G.O.P. in Fight for Congress appeared first on New York Times.
