Democrats are making surprising gains in some of the most Republican parts of the country, but the same surge isn’t showing up in the swing states that usually decide control of Congress, according to a new analysis.
Senate races in Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska and Mississippi have tightened sharply, even though President Donald Trump carried those states in 2024 by 13 to 23 points, but races in New Hampshire, Maine and Michigan, states Kamala Harris won or nearly won, remain within a few points, reported MS NOW.
Longtime election forecaster Charlie Cook calls the trend a “red undertow,” explaining that instead of a traditional wave lifting Democrats everywhere, the pattern is more of a broad rejection of Trump and the GOP.
“I haven’t seen any data whatsoever suggesting people are happy with the Democratic Party,” Cook told Washington Monthly. “None, zero. This is 100 percent about Trump.”
The shift is forcing Republicans to defend seats they would normally consider safe. Trump is set to hold a rally Monday in Grand Island, Nebraska, where GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts is in a virtual tie with independent Dan Osborn.
Vice President JD Vance campaigned in Kansas last month for Sen. Roger Marshall, even though Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and Trump’s super PAC has spent $11.3 million backing Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan against former Rep. Mary Peltola, according to The New York Times.
Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota told MS NOW that rising costs and tariffs are weighing on voters across the Midwest, and he singled out Trump’s move to allow more foreign beef imports.
“It seems as though the administration really hurt the livestock producers,” Rounds said.
The pattern comes as Trump’s approval rating fell this week to 38.7 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, the lowest point of his second term.
Republicans still have a major financial edge. Across their national committees, they have over $100 million more than Democrats, and their advantage may be even larger among outside groups.
“Cash is king,” said Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
The trend also creates a dilemma for Democrats, who hold reliable leads only in Georgia and North Carolina.
They’re having to spend heavily defending competitive seats in Michigan, New Hampshire and Maine instead of investing in red-state upsets. Narrow losses in places like Alaska, Kansas and Nebraska could turn a promising cycle into a disappointment.
Still, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) said his party’s chances of winning the Senate have improved from about one in three a year ago to roughly even.
“The arc is still going in the positive direction,” Kaine said.
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