President Donald Trump’s political standing plunged from “toxic” to “radioactive” in 90 days, a top elections analyst warned as Republicans brace for November.
Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, delivered the assessment to Axios in a report published on Saturday. He described a political environment in which Trump’s deepening unpopularity threatens to drag down Republican candidates across the country.
“Over the last 90 days,” Cook said, “President Trump’s political standing has transitioned from very unpopular to toxic and now to radioactive.”
Cook argued the coming midterms are better understood as a “red undertow” than a Democratic wave. In his view, the losses will be driven less by enthusiasm for Democrats, whose favorability numbers remain weak, and more by voters turning against the president. That undertow, he said, will sink many Republicans and shrink the margins of others.
The warning comes as Trump’s disapproval rating reached 60.4 percent this week, the worst mark across both terms, surpassing even the fallout from the January 6 attack on the Capitol. Voters are also contending with gas prices above $4 a gallon, diesel at $6.50, mortgage rates at 7 percent and a seven-month standoff with Iran that has no clear end in sight.
Cook’s own outfit shifted 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take control of the chamber. Republican-aligned groups are now spending to protect more than half a dozen districts Trump carried by at least 15 points in 2024.
The Senate picture is also darkening for the GOP. The party’s Senate campaign arm is asking donors for another $8.9 million to shore up seats in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, all states Trump won by double digits.
One consultant working on races nationwide told Axios the environment is starting to resemble 2006, when Republicans lost 30 House seats, six Senate seats and control of both chambers during George W. Bush’s second midterm.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise set modest expectations, suggesting Republicans might finish with 225 seats, just seven above the majority, Axios noted.
A Trump adviser pushed back on the gloom, pointing to the party’s fundraising edge.
“If we execute and our people show up, it’s a different ballgame,” the adviser said, per Axios.
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