The last time China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, traveled to North Korea, that country’s dictator, Kim Jong-un, was reeling from sanctions and failed nuclear talks with the United States.
Now, nearly seven years later, as Mr. Xi returns to North Korea on Monday, he will meet with a leader who is newly emboldened by an alliance with Russia that has helped his economy break out of isolation.
Mr. Xi is expected to use the two-day summit with Mr. Kim to project a united front between allies against the West. But analysts say China is likely also keen to assert its influence over a neighbor that has leaned toward Russia. Mr. Kim, for his part, wants to be treated less like a junior partner to China and will likely use his new closeness to Russia to press Beijing for economic concessions.
If North Korea is able to successfully balance its two giant neighbors, Mr. Kim might feel even less constrained about advancing his nuclear weapons program. That could destabilize a region where U.S. allies are already worried about China’s military buildup and Washington’s ability to honor its defense agreements as it depletes resources fighting a war with Iran.
Here’s what to know about the meeting.
Xi wants to signal unity, but will also have to court Kim.
Mr. Xi will likely use his rare access to Mr. Kim to remind the world that North Korea depends on China and that Beijing cannot be sidelined.
The messaging would align with efforts by Mr. Xi to project China as a superpower equal to the United States. China is keen to show that while Washington sows chaos — whether through its war with Iran or by imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike — Beijing is a stabilizing force in the world. This point was reinforced in Mr. Xi’s recent summits with President Trump, then President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, in Beijing.
“Xi is attempting to demonstrate that he is on better terms with members of his authoritarian clique than President Trump is with his democratic partners,” said Kurt Campbell, a former deputy secretary of state under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and the chairman of the Asia Group.
But Mr. Xi’s decision to make a rare trip abroad also underscores his need to court Mr. Kim.
Pyongyang has eased its dependence on Beijing by reviving a Cold War-era mutual defense pledge with Moscow in 2024. Russia has provided North Korea with badly needed oil, food and weapons technology in exchange for North Korean troops and munitions for its war in Ukraine. That has created a headache for China, which wants to maintain its influence over North Korea to rein in its volatile behavior and ensure stability on its borders.
“There is no question that the Chinese are worried about how close the North Korean-Russian relationship is getting,” said John Delury, a historian of Northeast Asia who is a senior fellow in Seoul for the Asia Society. “This trip helps head that off a bit and it’s a way for Xi to insert himself back into the equation.”
Kim is on a winning streak.
Things had looked bleak for Mr. Kim just a few years ago. First, Mr. Trump walked away from nuclear talks with him in 2019, dashing hopes that the United States would lift sanctions. The following year, Mr. Kim drove his country into isolation in response to Covid-19 by closing its borders. That froze trade with China, North Korea’s main source of goods and foreign currency.
Mr. Kim’s fortunes changed, not only as the pandemic eased, but after he seized on Russia’s difficulties in the war in Ukraine to strengthen ties with Moscow and recalibrate North Korea’s foreign policy, which had tilted heavily toward China. He supplied Moscow with weapons and troops, while Russia reciprocated by injecting billions of dollars’ worth of oil, food, weapons technology and other aid into North Korea.
Mr. Xi may seek to remind Mr. Kim that China remains North Korea’s main benefactor. In March, China restored train services and flights between Beijing and Pyongyang.
Still, Mr. Kim wants more. Tourism is one of the few sectors not restricted by U.N. sanctions, and the North Korean leader has invested in seafront resorts and mountain hot springs with the aim of attracting Chinese visitors.
“North Korea is no longer a pathetic nation clinging to a single patron,” said Lee Byong-chul, an analyst at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. “It has found a new strategic wing in Russia, in addition to China, which has long been its lifeline.”
Trump and nuclear weapons loom over the summit.
One question hanging over the summit is what, if any, pressure Mr. Xi will put on Mr. Kim to engage with the United States. Since returning to the White House, the American president has repeatedly signaled his desire for another summit with Mr. Kim.
It is possible that Mr. Trump has asked Mr. Xi to deliver a message while he is in Pyongyang. Mr. Kim, however, has remained steadfast, insisting he will reject any dialogue with Washington that places his country’s nuclear program on the negotiating table.
Mr. Kim has long treated that program as a way to reduce his reliance on Moscow and Beijing for security, and as a shield against a U.S. invasion. That view has been hardened by the Trump administration’s rationale that it attacked Iran partly to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.
Mr. Kim’s defiance highlights a major shift in how the world’s biggest powers handle North Korea.
For years, Beijing and Moscow shared Washington’s goal of rolling back North Korea’s nuclear program, voting with the United States when the U.N. Security Council imposed sweeping sanctions on Pyongyang in 2016 and 2017.
But two years ago, Mr. Putin appeared to provide tacit approval of the nuclear weapons program when he signed the defense pact and offered Russia’s military technical assistance.
“Pyongyang has the right to take reasonable measures to strengthen its own defense capability,” the Russian leader said.
North Korea is estimated to already possess 50 warheads, but still seeks advanced technology to build intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of delivering those weapons.
China officially opposes a nuclear North Korean state, concerned it would drive U.S. allies like South Korea to seek their own nuclear arsenals. But its stance has recently evolved to reflect a desire for better relations with Pyongyang and a growing view that a nuclear-armed North Korea provides leverage over Washington and Seoul, analysts said.
When Mr. Xi and Mr. Kim met in Beijing last September, official statements from both governments omitted any mention of removing nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula, which had been standard boilerplate for years.
Beijing may see little geopolitical value in helping Mr. Trump manage the North Korean nuclear threat, and may also consider it impossible to force North Korea to give up its nuclear program without damaging ties.
Last month, the White House announced that both Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi “confirmed their shared goal to denuclearize North Korea.” But the Chinese government offered a more muted readout, stating only that they had “exchanged views” on the Korean Peninsula.
David Pierson covers Chinese foreign policy and China’s economic and cultural engagement with the world. He has been a journalist for more than two decades.
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