JERUSALEM — Israel and Lebanon agreed Wednesday to implement a ceasefire deal that’s missing one crucial party to the fighting raging in Lebanon: Hezbollah.
The powerful Iranian-backed militant group, which is not part of the Lebanese government and was not present at the talks held at the State Department in Washington, did not immediately respond to the deal’s announcement.
Israel and Hezbollah have continued to trade attacks since an initial ceasefire deal — which also did not include Hezbollah — was announced in April, and Lebanese health officials have said hundreds of people have been killed in that time.
Unlike the April ceasefire, the new agreement, backed by the United States, includes concrete steps calling for Hezbollah to cease firing on Israel and leave southern Lebanon while the Lebanese military comes in to take full control of newly established “pilot zones” free of any non-state armed groups, like Hezbollah.
Historically, the Lebanese army, which sometimes works alongside Hezbollah, has avoided taking measures that would displace the powerful militant group or antagonize it. If not smoothly executed, the new plan could put the two Lebanese factions in direct confrontation and even risk civil war, analysts say.
It’s uncertain whether Hezbollah — or Iran — will be satisfied by the emerging deal, which does not appear to require meaningful concessions from Israel. In a statement, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the deal gives Israel the freedom to continue firing and conducting operations on the ground in an area south of the Israeli-demarcated “Yellow Line,” and to strike Beirut, during the initial phase when Hezbollah is expected to withdraw north of the Litani River.
The Lebanese population south of the Yellow Line, which runs about six miles from the border with Israel, will also not be allowed to return home after being displaced by Israeli evacuation orders, Katz clarified.
The broad latitude given to Israel in the agreement “is an expression of the reality we have created in Lebanon so far,” Katz said. “This is a reality that may lead, depending on developments on the ground and our continued uncompromising insistence on the interests of the State of Israel, to a political peace treaty with the state of Lebanon.”
On Thursday morning, hours after the deal’s announcement, Israel conducted three strikes near the southern town of Nabatieh. In another indication that Israel did not intend to stop hostilities, the Israel Defense Forces issued a public warning urging Lebanese civilians to not travel south of the Zahrani River, citing ongoing operations targeting Hezbollah.
In recent weeks, the fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah has threatened to derail President Donald Trump’s efforts to secure a comprehensive peace deal with Iran, a sponsor of Hezbollah. Tehran has demanded that Israel stop its air and ground campaign in Lebanon, and this week Trump said in a podcast that he made an expletive-laced call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because he felt “perturbed” by Netanyahu “constantly fighting” Hezbollah.
Trump confirmed to the Pod Force One podcast on Wednesday that he had called Netanyahu “crazy” and waved him off an invasion of Beirut, but said the two of them maintained a healthy working relationship.
While Trump has been negotiating with Iran, Israel has occupied land equal to a fifth of Lebanon’s territory, displaced much of the civilian population there and threatened to invade Beirut to clear out Hezbollah strongholds. In some instances, the timing of Israeli attacks — such as its massive bombardment of Beirut that killed 357 people on April 8, one day after the U.S. and Iran announced their own ceasefire — appeared to be aimed at undermining Trump’s talks with Iran.
For its part, Iran did not immediately comment on the Israel-Lebanon deal. But its foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, reiterated on Wednesday the Iranian position that the two battlefronts — the U.S.-Iran war and the conflict in Lebanon — must be linked.
“If Israel attacks Beirut, the result will be the return to war,” Araghchi said in an interview with the Lebanese channel Al Mayadeen. “Either the war stops in both Iran and Lebanon, or it doesn’t stop neither in Iran nor in Lebanon.”
Qassem Kassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah, criticized the deal for giving Israel too much latitude to continue its attacks and said it risked pitting the Lebanese army against Hezbollah.
“Will Israel commit to a full ceasefire? Will the people of the southern villages be allowed to return … and rebuild their villages? How will the Lebanese army deal with the situation? How will the army deploy in the south?” he asked.
“There are many questions in this agreement, and there are many problems in it,” Kassir added. “The most important thing is that this agreement does not turn into an internal Lebanese conflict.”
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