Ken Paxton, who is challenging Senator John Cornyn of Texas for his seat, was already leading the Republican primary runoff in nearly every independent poll before President Trump endorsed him last week.
Since the endorsement, there have been two additional polls, both of which showed Mr. Paxton with a large lead: a Quantus Insights poll had him up by nine percentage points — a one-point gain from the firm’s March survey — and a SoCal Strategies poll had him up by 21 percentage points. Mr. Cornyn leads in three polls, but only one that isn’t sponsored by a partisan group aligned with his campaign.
Mr. Paxton, the state’s attorney general, has also led in surveys sponsored by groups affiliated with his campaign, as well as all five sponsored by Democratic organizations. Polls sponsored by partisan groups come with the caveat that such polls can be released selectively to build particular narratives.
Mr. Paxton’s consistent lead in runoff polls follows a primary in which he led Mr. Cornyn in most — but not all — independent polls, only to lose by 1.5 percentage points. Those primary polls were affected by the presence of Representative Wesley Hunt, who finished third with 13.5 percent of the vote.
Parsing the numbers of the runoff polls is difficult, and demographic breakdowns should be approached with caution given that they are not necessarily meant to be fully representative and they rely on small sample sizes. But those results can offer a rough understanding of what makes up each candidate’s coalition.
Mr. Cornyn performs somewhat better among college-educated voters and sees strong support among voters who live in urban areas. Mr. Paxton holds a substantial lead among voters who are not highly educated, and runs stronger among voters in suburban, rural and small-town Texas. Those who voted for Mr. Paxton in the primary appear more committed to their initial choice than Mr. Cornyn’s supporters, and those who backed Mr. Hunt in the primary are breaking toward Mr. Paxton.
As with most primary runoffs, an important factor will be turnout. There is often a steep drop-off between a primary and its runoff, and that can lead to the winner being the candidate who most effectively mobilizes their supporters.
While the early voting period was condensed for the runoff, reports from the Texas Secretary of State show that advance votes have dropped by more than 35 percent since the primary. Such contests tend to attract the party’s committed and ideologically engaged voters, which could favor Mr. Paxton, and higher-educated voters, which could favor Mr. Cornyn.
Caroline Soler is a Times researcher focused on collecting and analyzing polling and election data.
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