In a 12-hour span this week, President Trump promised that the war with Iran was ending soon. He picked a fight with the pope on social media. He threatened to fire the chair of the Federal Reserve. He posted an illustration of himself receiving an encouraging hug from Jesus Christ.
This is what it looks like when Mr. Trump is under pressure and burrowing his way into a more flattering news cycle. And anyone who has been paying even a little bit of attention over the past decade can pinpoint where we are in a well-established routine, when, intentionally or not, the president tosses out little rhetorical grenades meant to shift attention elsewhere. (It often works: Remember last week, when he threatened to wipe out Iranian civilization?)
Now, Mr. Trump is showering Truth Social with Jesus memes and threats and endorsements.
“The Radical Left Lunatics might not like this, but I think it is quite nice!!!” he posted alongside an illustration of Jesus with his arm around the president’s shoulder and an American flag in the background.
What makes this different from all the other times is that he cannot post his way out of a war he started without congressional permission or without the support of voters.
A fan of quick, in-and-out military operations that showcase the power of the U.S. military, Mr. Trump has grown frustrated that the war in Iran has taken longer than he had originally thought it would. His latest decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route, has required more than 10,000 soldiers, as well as dozens of planes and warships. All the while, he has continued his usual practice of lashing out at critics. This time, he has damaged relationships with key allies, including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, and made it harder for Republicans to keep the focus on economic issues in a midterm election year.
“President Trump has taken courageous action to address a threat that past presidents have talked about for 47 years, but only he had the courage to address,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement. “The United States military quickly achieved all of the goals enumerated at the beginning of Operation Epic Fury,” she added, referring to the name of the campaign in Iran.
Ms. Kelly said that the blockade was “increasing leverage as U.S. negotiators work to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat for good.”
Inside the White House, some of Mr. Trump’s advisers have privately acknowledged that his attack on the pope was not productive. They believe a slate of events later this week will help shift attention toward some of the administration’s economic initiatives, and a tax season that has some Americans celebrating larger-than-average returns.
“President Trump has always been able to enact America First foreign policy while enhancing the livelihoods of Americans at home, including by cutting taxes, re-shoring manufacturing, eliminating burdensome regulations, and more,” Ms. Kelly said.
Investors seem impatient for the war in Iran to end, too. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high on Wednesday, reflecting optimism that a peace deal would be reached before the war inflicts significant damage on corporate America.
Earlier in the day, Mr. Trump sat for an interview with Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business, who wanted to know whether his decision to blockade the strait had positively affected negotiations with Tehran.
“The leaders they have now — it’s a new regime, OK?” Mr. Trump said, adding: “And I think we’re doing very well, but it only matters what the end result is, and maybe it’ll happen fairly soon. Who knows?”
A conga line of reporters also call and ask him about whatever they want to, creating additional mini news cycles. “Trump reacts to FEMA official’s claim he teleported to Waffle House,” was a headline that appeared on CNN’s website this week. It was bizarre and funny, the sort of attention-grabber that keeps Mr. Trump picking up to chat in the first place.
And then there is what counts as business as usual at the White House, when Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, ended a briefing with reporters on Wednesday by showing off renderings of a 250-foot-tall arch that Mr. Trump wants built along the Potomac River to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the United States.
For anyone trying to keep up, this all has a kaleidoscopic, disorienting effect. But let’s peel our eyes from the Waffle House and the Jesus memes and the giant stone arch and pause for a question: Isn’t getting into a fight with the Vatican during the middle of a war — and during a midterm election year when the main topic of discussion is the high cost of living — a little extreme, even for Mr. Trump?
As usual, and as it has always been, this depends on whom you ask.
“He has always been like this,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster. “It all depends upon whether his recent behavior affects his job approval or changes anyone’s opinion about him that they didn’t already have before.”
According to Mr. Ayres, the most critical variable in a midterm election is the job approval of the president. When a president has an approval above 50 percent, the average loss of House seats for his party is 14. When the president’s job approval is below 50 percent, the average loss for his party in the House is 32 seats.
Mr. Trump’s job approval sits at about 39 percent. It hit a first-term low of 34 percent when Mr. Trump left office in January 2021. Mr. Trump had spent much of the previous year minimizing the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, and lost the election. The month he left office, as many as 4,000 Americans were dying each day from the virus.
When the moment calls for Mr. Trump to publicly show empathy, he often leaves that work to others. When the moment calls for him to put the phone down or back away from a critic, he hits back harder.
“He’ll double down, lie more and say that everything’s perfectly fine and great, and then do all his bonkers postings,” said Stephanie Grisham, a former White House press secretary for Mr. Trump.
But she added: “He’s being erratic, even for him.”
With a handful of months to go until the midterm elections, Republican leaders are left with a few choices. Some are choosing their public remarks carefully, gently persuading Mr. Trump — and the White House — to mind the economy.
“I’d stay focused on the administration, on the economic issues, the pocketbook issues that I think most Americans care about, and let the church be the church,” Senator John Thune, Republican of South Dakota and the majority leader, told reporters on Wednesday. Mr. Thune was responding to a question about Vice President JD Vance warning the pope, the spiritual leader of 1.4 billion Catholics — a group that includes Mr. Vance — to be “careful” when talking about theology.
Rebelling is also an option, as several Republicans showed on Wednesday.
Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who is not running for re-election this year, said in an interview with NBC that he would withhold a vote to confirm Kevin M. Warsh, Mr. Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome H. Powell as the chair of the Federal Reserve, if the Trump administration did not end a criminal investigation into Mr. Powell’s handling of costly renovations at the Fed’s headquarters in Washington.
As for the attack on the pope, Mr. Tillis suggested that Mr. Trump show some grace. “When you’re wrong, you’re wrong, or if you made a mistake, or maybe it was just a misconception, just get past it,” he said. “Move on.”
In the House on Wednesday, six Republicans joined Democrats in moving to force a vote on a measure that would reinstate deportation protections for about 350,000 Haitians living in the United States. The Trump administration has tried to eliminate those temporary protections.
G.O.P. leaders also delayed a debate on extending a high-profile warrantless surveillance law because of a rebellion over the bill in their ranks, despite Mr. Trump’s latest Truth Social order directing them to move forward.
“I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our Great Military and Country!” he declared on social media — striking, given his history of railing against the F.B.I.’s use of a different part of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, during the investigation into Russia and his 2016 campaign.
Other Republican lawmakers, frustrated with constant dysfunction, have decided to step off the ride altogether. G.O.P. departures from the House this cycle are surpassed only by 2018, the midterm election year in Mr. Trump’s first term, when his party was also bracing for big losses. Republicans lost 40 House seats and the majority.
Other Republicans, now long gone from public office, have chosen to see divine comedy in the mortal struggle playing out in Washington. Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska and onetime candidate for vice president, shared a Jesus meme of her own.
“Alright. That’s enough,” said Jesus in the image Ms. Palin posted. “Give me the phone.”
Charlie Savage and Joe Rennison contributed reporting.
Katie Rogers is a White House correspondent for The Times, reporting on President Trump.
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