MANAMA, Bahrain — Conferences in the Persian Gulf are usually positive affairs, with government officials, executives of state-owned companies and armies of consultants touting petro-fueled visions promising fantastical technology and prosperity.
Yet optimism seemed in short supply at the Manama Dialogue, an annual security and geopolitical summit held in the Bahraini capital. Instead, the dominant mood among the Middle East diplomats, defense officials and experts assembled last weekend was fear over the consequences of another bout of U.S.-Iran fighting.
“The rules of logic tell us that the Iranian stand and the American stand are far apart. And if these positions are not bridged, then we have to worry about the worst,” Anwar Gargash, a presidential advisor in the United Arab Emirates, said in an address at the summit.
Gargash added that it’s not in the interest of the regional countries or Iran to go through another round of war.
“While we’re going through this period of protracted crisis of no war, no peace, we are clearly seeking a political offramp,” he said.
In his address, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said, “We have to push very hard in order to prevent the escalation.”
Noting that more fighting would affect food and energy security, he added, “The second round will be more dangerous, more destructive and it will lead to nowhere.”
The signals from Washington are mixed.
With a settlement between Tehran and Washington seemingly out of reach, President Trump has hinted he could launch “another little Operation Epic Fury” after Tuesday’s midterm elections. He was referring to the U.S.-Israeli operation that launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28.
But on Monday, he wrote on his social media website that “Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!”
Still, hours later, Iranian state media reported explosions on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz; the Associated Press quoted an unnamed U.S. official as saying the military had carried out “defensive strikes.”
The news comes as Republicans face a tough midterm race, which has become a referendum on an increasingly unpopular war that could sink Trump’s Teflon-like electoral appeal.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is fighting for his political life after an inconclusive election last month, is said to be pressing Trump to finish off the Islamic Republic.
Behind the scenes, regional diplomats are engaging in furious shuttle diplomacy to avert renewed fighting. Last week, Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials flew to Tehran and met with Iranian military officials. Qatar is leading negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with Tehran presenting a de-escalation plan that has yet to be accepted by Trump.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Monday told the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency that it was now up to the Americans to decide “whether they have the will to take the wise path of diplomacy or, as in the past, seek to drag the situation into aggression and military operations.”
“If they dare to test us again,” he added, “they know that they will receive a much more bitter and severe result than before.”
His words came as several Middle Eastern countries are still reeling from the first round of fighting, when Iran retaliated against U.S. attacks by striking American military bases on regional soil with fusillades of drones, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles.
Iran also targeted civilian infrastructure and has vowed to exercise less restraint and wage a no-holds-barred campaign — possibly striking energy, desalination and travel facilities — in the event of a new assault.
On Saturday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said further U.S. attacks would prompt a broad response, one without “geographic limits.”
The scars of the fight could be seen around the Bahraini capital, where the U.S. 5th Fleet has several support facilities. Structures showed signs of explosive damage, including a partially destroyed radar dish and soot-covered depot, a result of Iranian projectiles — 500 drones and roughly 200 ballistic missiles — finding their mark.
The bases seemed all but abandoned, with word among residents that American service members, a common sight in Bahrain, have all but disappeared.
The war has cast a shadow on Persian Gulf nations that have long presented themselves as paragons of stability in a volatile region, mostly unaffected by the conflicts raging in the wider Middle East.
Disruptions to energy flows and logistics mean members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, a bloc of oil-rich Gulf nations, are facing a 4.8% contraction in gross domestic product compared with last year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The International Monetary Fund expected a strong turnaround in 2027 but acknowledged that “uncertainty remains exceptionally high, and risks are firmly tilted to the downside.”
Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are hardest hit; Qatar’s real GDP is down more than 15% this year. Meanwhile, the Saudi economy — which is contending with the double pressures of a sealed-off Strait of Hormuz and a blockade on Red Sea access by Iran-backed Yemeni rebels known as the Houthis, shrank almost 4% in the third quarter compared with last year, according to official figures.
Despite regional efforts to bring about a detente, the general consensus among attendees at the security summit was that more war is coming. The summit, which is organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, drew hundreds of participants.
And for both regional and European officials present, there was a deep sense of uncertainty regarding Washington and its commitment to shielding putative allies from attack.
That has forced Gulf nations — long reliant on a U.S. security umbrella — to look for protection beyond Washington. Yet diplomats lamented what they said was a lack of coordination close to home, despite a long-standing GCC mutual defense agreement.
For example, militaries detecting projectiles in their airspace that were en route to a target country didn’t warn their counterparts, leaving them with less time to deal with incoming attacks. Others have systems that are not linked to the U.S.’s regional radar net.
“A lot of countries you thought you can depend on were not there for you,” Gargash said. “Why did we sign that agreement many years ago only to see that this agreement was not activated when we all needed it?”
Saudi Arabia has sought to marshal alternative allies through a recently signed pact with Turkey and Pakistan, and has asked Egypt for help — a request Cairo said it would honor by engaging in defensive operations on Saudi territory.
But Abdelatty, Egypt’s foreign minister, said the region requires more than new military engagements and should instead “move from the logic of crisis management to the logic of building an order” aimed at stopping confrontations before they start.
“A war can begin with a unilateral decision,” Abdelatty said.
“But no one can unilaterally control its consequences or stop it.”
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