Fresh off a midterm drubbing that handed Democrats control of Congress, a pair of experts warned that President Donald Trump may be about to enter the most dangerous stretch of his presidency.
Diplomacy and policy experts Daniel Drezner and Elizabeth Saunders published a column in Foreign Affairs arguing that Trump, now a lame duck for the second time, is likely to feel trapped as Democrats prepare to investigate his administration and his family’s business dealings, and could even pursue impeachment.
“The threat of impeachment or investigations into the Trump family’s business dealings will likely make the president feel cornered and angry,” they wrote. “And that’s what makes the remainder of Trump’s term so dangerous.”
Lame-duck presidents often turn to foreign policy, where they can act without much interference from Congress. But where Bill Clinton pursued an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal and Barack Obama struck the Iran nuclear deal, the authors fear Trump will reach for force instead.
“A boxed-in Trump, with no obvious constructive foreign policy outlet to channel his energy, may well lash out internationally,” they wrote. “With no election on the horizon, all that constrains the president abroad is the sense of his own legacy.”
The likeliest target is Iran. Citing the New York Times, the authors note that the Trump administration and Israel have drawn up plans for new strikes as soon as the midterms are over. They warn that a last-ditch effort to force Tehran’s surrender “is unlikely to work and would put at risk the global economy” and the stability of U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf.
Cuba could be next. Trump has kept the island under a near-total embargo for most of the year, leaving Cubans with electricity for only a few hours a day, and regime change is a personal priority for Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The authors suggest Trump might see an attack as a way “to distract from his failure in Iran,” even though forced regime change rarely works and could unleash a new wave of refugees.
Trump could also cash in. The authors point to the Qatari jetliner, a $2 billion investment from a Saudi-led fund and lucrative crypto ventures, noting that The New Yorker estimates the family has reaped $4 billion.
“Trump, secure in the knowledge that the Senate will not have the 67 votes it needs to remove him from office, might figure that he has nothing to lose in pursuing more moneymaking schemes,” they wrote.
The best-case scenario? That Trump spends his final two years on the White House ballroom, the Kennedy Center, pardons and “erecting monuments to himself,” they said.
“Given the alternatives,” the authors concluded, “inaction on foreign policy may well be the best-case scenario.”
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