If elections hinged entirely on the economy, Republicans would be in trouble.
A major campaign issue has been how President Donald Trump’s economic and foreign policy decisions have affected affordability for Americans: The national average price for a gallon of regular gas is about 40 percent higher than a year ago; tariffs on imports have cost the average American household more than $2,500, according to an analysis of data from the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.
The impact is most pronounced in states where Tuesday’s elections could determine control of the Senate. Michigan, where the Senate race is rated a toss-up by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, has been hit hardest by tariffs. Michigan’s average price for regular gas has risen 54 percent over the past year, the second-highest increase in the country. Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed holds a slight lead in the polls in that state.
The Iran war has pushed up gas prices nationwide and hurt Trump’s approval rating. Six of seven toss-up states — all but Alaska — saw gas prices rise more than the national average. Gas prices in Iowa have jumped more than 46 percent. Republican Senate candidates Ashley Hinson of Iowa and Mike Rogers of Michigan have called for an end to the Iran war to improve their midterm chances.
To help Republican Sen. Susan Collins’s reelection chances in Maine, Trump is rolling back some tariffs on Canadian goods, providing relief for farmers. Households in Michigan, Texas and Ohio, which face some of the largest tariff-related costs, will also need relief.
Affordability concerns are threatening not only Republicans’ chances in contested Senate races but also their prospects in the House. A recent Washington Post analysis found that 19 out of 21 toss-up House districts became less affordable during Trump’s second term. Republicans are defending 14 of those seats.
Affordability concerns have affected the polls. On Tuesday, we will know whether they become the defining story of this year’s election.
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