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A record 7.4 million Texans voted early in the midterms, giving Democrats an apparent lead in turnout and forcing Republicans to rely more heavily on independents to win key races, analysts say.
Texas voters don’t register with a party. Analysts extrapolate party affiliation from records showing which primary they voted in, with those who skip the primary considered independent.
More Democrats voted early than Republicans in urban counties. More Republicans voted in the state’s suburban and rural areas. But the number of independents outpaced both parties.
“Democrats lead in Texas’s big counties. Republicans lead everywhere else. Independents decide it,” nonpartisan Houston area-based early voting expert Steven David said in his analysis.
David said 54 percent of independents need to vote Republican for the GOP to break even with Democrats, and that’s unlikely. Usually they’re evenly split between the parties, he said.
A number of factors, he said, make it difficult to predict voter behavior: enthusiastic first-time and sporadic left-leaning voters and disaffected right-leaning voters staying home, splitting their ticket or skipping certain races.
Most independent early voters didn’t vote in 2024, nearly half are Latino, and many are young and female, Tom Bonnier, a polling analyst at Target Smart, noted on X.
That doesn’t guarantee Democrats victory in the crucial U.S. Senate race, he said. “Dems start in a big hole in [Texas]. To me this shows the race is in play.”
Additional Coverage
- October 31, 2026
Texas Republicans sweating over low turnout in early voting
Forget the Alamo.
Ken Paxton, the Republican Texas attorney general running for U.S. Senate, no longer appears to have plans to host a closing rally at the famed San Antonio battle site known as the “Shrine of Texas Liberty.”
Paxton’s campaign initially planned to end its “Come and Take It” tour at the Alamo on Monday night, but it published an event page saying Paxton would instead spend Monday evening roughly 300 miles away, in Allen, Texas.
Paxton will still swing by San Antonio on Sunday evening, though the event is slated to be roughly 15 miles north of the Alamo.
His campaign has been guarded about the details of the Alamo rally and did not respond to a query on whether it would ever take place. The Alamo Trust’s rules of reverence prohibit “events or gatherings that include advocacy around public policy, are political in nature, or involve fundraising activities not affiliated with the Alamo.”
The site of a fateful battle where the Anglo Texians lost to the Mexican army during the Texas Revolution, the Alamo holds a colossal place in the Texas psyche. The command to “Remember the Alamo” has become a rallying cry to persevere against impossible odds.
Paxton is in a highly competitive race against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who has for months led slightly in polls and vastly in fundraising. Paxton’s campaign has been hampered by past allegations of criminal misconduct and personal indiscretion, including an impeachment in the state House over alleged bribery. He was acquitted in the state Senate and has maintained his innocence.
As costumed leopards and jungle birds paraded by and guests feasted on a buffet of delicacies in a ballroom swirling with dry ice, President Donald Trump hosted Halloween at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday.
Dressed in his usual suit and red tie, he told reporters that he “came as Donald Trump.”
“I didn’t have time to get — people spend a lot of time and money, rich people, they spend nine hours getting ready,” he said. “I had 10 minutes, so I came as Donald Trump.”
The event had a jungle theme, and reporters spotted guests in sequined leotards, face paint, and cheetah, leopard and tiger-print dinner jackets. Circus performers hung from the ceiling.
Guests included House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), who was seated next to the president at dinner later in the evening. Across the table was U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor.
Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who traveled from Washington with the president on Friday, could also be seen by his side. Also seen mingling with guests was Attorney General Todd Blanche.
The lavish event came three days before voting ends in the midterm elections, which have been dominated by voter concerns about the cost of living.
Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R-Alaska) said he will accept the results of Tuesday’s Senate race in his state even if he does not prevail.
The race in Alaska has been the subject of in controversy over the presence on the ballot of another man with a similar name, Dan J. Sullivan Jr. The New York Times has reported that the campaign of Democratic nominee Mary Peltola was involved in recruiting Dan J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher, to run in a bid to dilute support for the incumbent. Peltola’s campaign denied the allegations.
The Trump administration filed a lawsuit to potentially block the results from being certified if the incumbent senator loses by a margin less than the number of votes for his challenger with the similar name.
But asked Sunday on CNN whether he would accept the election results only if he wins, Sullivan replied: “No. I’m going to accept the election results.”
On Saturday, Alaska’s Republican-led government urged a federal judge to dismiss the Justice Department’s bid to block the certification of the Senate race if Sen. Sullivan loses, writing in a filing that the demands were “inappropriate and not even possible given Alaskan voters’ vital right to ballot secrecy.”
SEARSMONT, Maine — Democratic congressional candidate Matt Dunlap visited volunteer wood choppers Saturday morning to highlight the economic hardship many Mainers are feeling over a basic, but critical fuel for many who live here.
The Waldo County Wood Shed has been providing free firewood to people who need it to stay warm during the winters for more than a decade.
President and founder Bob MacGregor said he is expecting more demand this year because of the rising cost of heating oil in Maine. His organization relies on donations to buy logs and hands out about 200 cords per year.
“The only thing we can do is give out wood until we run out,” he said.
Dunlap said affordability has been the theme of the election. Last year, he largely heard from voters concerned about the rising cost of health care, but since the war in Iran, it’s the cost of everything. He said his own property taxes are going up 8 percent this year so his community can pay for the diesel used by its snowplows.
That experience has allowed him to connect with disappointed Trump supporters in this conservative-leaning district.
“They’re paying the same prices everybody else is paying and I think it’s left them feeling kind of demoralized,” Dunlap said. “What I hear from folks is they’re just tired.”
Rep. Haley Stevens (D) released a statement late Saturday urging Michigan to ‘go vote!’ in the critical Senate race that’s been overshadowed by her criticism of the party’s nominee, Abdul El-Sayed.
Her statement is a departure from days of intraparty Democratic warring.
Her public challenges to El-Sayed, who narrowly beat her in the primary, infuriated Democrats on the eve of a contest that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate.
Stevens had pressed El-Sayed to more forcefully condemn an ad from Rebellion PAC, a liberal outside group, that blames Israel for the high price of U.S. groceries. She conditioned her future support on him doing so.
Her fiancé, Jason Turkish, said he would vote for Republican Mike Rogers over it and insinuated Stevens may too.
El-Sayed had said the ad did not speak for him and on Saturday afternoon told reporters explicitly he did not support the contents of the ad.
Stevens then released a statement that did not name El-Sayed saying, “I was glad to see our senate nominee say he does not agree with the content of the vile Rebellion PAC ad.” She added that constituents deserved that leadership.
“Whenever anyone tries to set us against each other, we have an obligation to stand up and fight back,” she said.
Alaska’s Republican-led government urged a federal judge Saturday to dismiss the Trump administration’s bid to block the certification of the state’s U.S. Senate race if Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R) loses by a margin less than the number of votes for his challenger with the same name.
With the midterm elections set for Tuesday, the state attorney general’s office wrote in a filing that the demands in the Justice Department’s lawsuit were “inappropriate and not even possible given Alaskan voters’ vital right to ballot secrecy.”
The DOJ filed the lawsuit on Oct. 22. On Friday, it added a request for a federal judge to order the segregation of ballots “that may be impacted by voter confusion.”
The request came after The New York Times reported Wednesday that Democratic nominee Mary Peltola’s campaign was involved in recruiting retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan onto the ballot in a bid to dilute support for the incumbent. Peltola’s campaign denied the allegations.
In its filing Saturday, Alaska said state officials had “carefully designed the ballot to minimize voter confusion.”
The idea of physically separating ballots listing Dan J. Sullivan “makes no sense,” it wrote, adding that the proposal is “both disturbing and impossible.”
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