The Pollwatcher: The 10 most important poll findings shaping the midterm elections

The final week before elections is a big moment for polls, with enormous interest in which party will win control of the House and Senate. This week’s Pollwatcher steps back to highlight 10 of the most interesting findings that are shaping this year’s elections.

1. Trump lost his credibility on the economy

Through most of President Donald Trump’s first term, more Americans approved than disapproved of the economy, reinforcing his core identity as a business-savvy politician and helping him win back the White House in 2024. His second term has been a different story.

As the remarkable chart below based on Economist-YouGov polling shows, Trump’s net approval rating on the economy (approval minus disapproval) started at +12 in his second term but fell to roughly -10 a few months into 2025, falling again to -20 in late 2025 and sliding below -30 halfway into 2026. Most Americans believe Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war have fueled inflation, together robbing Trump and Republicans of a key argument this fall.

2. The economy and prices are voters’ top issues

Across scores of national and state polls this year, voters have said the economy, inflation and cost-of-living concerns are the biggest factors in their midterm votes. Americans care about more than the economy, of course, as a recent Pew survey found majorities saying the future of democracy, health care, education, immigration, foreign policy, energy policy and crime were all important. But when a New York Times-Siena University poll asked voters this month to name their top issue, 22 percent chose the economy, 11 percent cited inflation or the cost of living specifically, 10 percent mentioned immigration, and 7 percent cited foreign affairs.

3. Culture war issues loom just below the surface

Beyond traditional policy debates, Trump and Republicans have campaigned with arguments that the U.S. has gone too “woke” on questions of race and sexuality. A CNN poll this past spring found that Americans were divided on some of these questions, with 47 percent saying society had “gone too far” accepting different cultures, gender identities, sexual orientations and other backgrounds, while 33 percent said society had “not gone far enough” and 19 percent said the level of acceptance was about right.

Those opinions matter even if they don’t show up in top-issue lists. Some of The Post’s state-level polls this fall repeated the same question, finding it was predictive of support in Michigan’s Senate and governor races, even after controlling for demographic and political factors.

4. The Democratic Party remains unpopular

While approval of Trump and Republicans is low, a 54 percent majority of Americans still rated the Democratic Party unfavorably, according to a Gallup poll last month, an improvement from 61 percent last fall. A Post-ABC-Ipsos poll this year, asking people what they dislike most about the party, found being seen as “too liberal” or “weak” topped the list, while others criticized Democrats as “corrupt,” having “loose immigration” stances and being “out of touch” or “obsessed with Trump.”

5. Voters tend to like Democratic Senate candidates

Many Democratic candidates in Senate contests are popular, helping overcome their party’s reputation and potentially flip control of the chamber. According to polling averages by the polling analysis group FiftyPlusOne, Democratic Senate candidates hold positive favorable ratings in Texas, North Carolina, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska, while Democratic candidates in Michigan, Maine and New Hampshire have negative images. By contrast, Republican candidates have negative favorable ratings in all of the same states.

6. Americans are concerned about Trump exceeding his authority

A CNBC poll this month asked what Americans are concerned about most if Republicans keep control of Congress, offering seven options. “Allowing President Trump to operate beyond his constitutional power” topped the list at 44 percent, higher than concern about Republicans failing to bring prices down (24 percent). The result echoes our recent national poll, which found two-thirds of Americans saying Trump has exceeded his authority as president and over 6 in 10 saying he is not committed to respecting free and fair elections, the press, freedom of speech or the authority of Congress and the courts.

7. Young and Hispanic Trump voters have shifted away from him

Trump’s approval ratings have fallen steadily since his second inauguration, including among many people who voted for him. The Pew Research Center found Trump’s approval ratings among his 2024 voters fell from 95 percent in February 2025 to 67 percent this month, a 28-point drop. Trump’s ratings dropped by 36 points among Hispanic voters and by 43 points among voters younger than 35. Both shifts could be decisive in key races, including the Texas Senate election and heavily Hispanic congressional districts.

8. Democrats are enthusiastic, while Republicans aren’t sure about turning out

Enthusiasm matters in midterm elections, when at most 50 percent of eligible voters cast ballots, and polls have shown Democrats with a big enthusiasm advantage all year. October’s Post-ABC-Ipsos poll found 75 percent of Democrats were certain to vote or already cast ballots, compared with 67 percent of Republicans. Fully 1 in 4 Republicans said they “probably will vote” or that the “chances are 50-50,” groups could swing many elections in red states and districts if they decide to vote on Election Day.

9. AI concerns are growing, but neither party is harnessing it yet

Americans turned on data centers in 2026, and big majorities are concerned about AI causing computer hacks and job loss. But when asked which party they trust to handle artificial intelligence, 49 percent said “neither” in a Post-ABC-Ipsos poll this month, more than said this about any other issue. It’s a sign that while concerns about AI are potent, both parties are struggling to establish a compelling message on the issue.

10. Susan Collins is an exceptional candidate

Sen. Susan Collins vastly outperformed the polls in 2020 and is on the verge of pulling off another challenging win in Maine’s toss-up Senate race this year. In September, we highlighted how Collins’s 45 percent support in Maine polls was 10 points higher than Trump’s approval rating in the state, the biggest gap for any competitive Senate race this year, with more recent polls showing a similar pattern. The fact that Collins is competitive in Maine in a promising Democratic year is testament to how strong candidates can swing the balance in a closely divided chamber.

Reader questions!

Tom S. asks: As a psychologist, I know there is research showing when a response scale is agree/disagree, usually 5 points, they create a positive bias. Indeed, a technique to get people to donate money is to get them to take a survey with questions designed so many people would say they agree to some extent. Then, they asked to donate money. So, do many polls use agree/disagree response scales?”

Scott: The positive bias in agree-disagree questions — sometimes called acquiescence bias — is fairly well-known among public opinion researchers. The Pew Research Center highlighted polls from 1999 in which 55 percent agreed “the best way to ensure peace is through military strength,” but 33 percent held the same view when offered an alternative that “diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace.”

Many pollsters (including The Post) avoid agree-disagree questions out of these concerns, instead asking balanced-argument questions or measuring support and opposition to specific proposals. Not all pollsters take that route, of course. The long-running General Social Survey continues to ask many agree-disagree questions to ensure new results are comparable with previous years.