It’s possible — but far from a guarantee — that Democrats will retake the Senate in next week’s midterm elections. There are seven Senate races that either side could win, and most of them are in Republican-leaning states. Democrats need to pick up at least four to win the majority.
Still, Democrats are making these races competitive. They are favored in North Carolina to pick up a Senate seat from Republicans. Here are the seven other races most likely to flip parties and determine Senate control for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term.
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1. Maine: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Democrats almost certainly need to end the tenure of Sen. Susan Collins (R) to take back the majority.
Democrats say the political forces that have kept Collins in office for so long aren’t as resonant this year: She’s the only Republican senator who represents a state that voted for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 over Trump, and this is Collins’s first time in decades to be on the ballot in a midterm cycle that favors Democrats. Democrats say they see evidence that her brand as an independent-minded Republican has tarnished after 30 years in the Senate. But Collins has been a senator since the ’90s, a stretch during which the state has consistently supported Democrats for president.
Her opponent is Troy Jackson, the progressive former state Senate president, who has had to put together a rushed campaign team, and some of his campaigning has come across as low-key and even rambling.
2. Ohio: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Ohio’s newest senator, Jon Husted (R), got appointed to the Senate only last year to replace Vice President JD Vance. Husted is running for the seat against a well-known figure in Ohio politics, former senator Sherrod Brown (D), who some voters in Ohio still think is the senator.
Ohio voters are struggling with many of Trump’s unpopular policies. Ohio is a farming state, and fertilizer is getting more expensive as a result of Trump’s war with Iran. Tariffs have yet to deliver a manufacturing revival in a state that also has been reliant on that sector. There is also a bipartisan, grassroots push to stop building the data centers that have proliferated across the state. Republicans are warning that if Husted loses, it could be because voters perceive him as being welcoming of data centers.
3. Alaska: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is running for a third term in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Sullivan has quietly broken with Trump at times, more so as the election nears.
Democrats managed to recruit former congresswoman Mary Peltola as their Senate candidate. Alaska has only one House seat, so she has already shown that she can win statewide and has been laser-focused on how expensive living in the state is these days.
Complicating the race is a retired teacher named Dan Sullivan who also will be on the ballot, as an independent. (Alaska voters rank their choices regardless of party.) The Justice Department filed a lawsuit trying to block certification of the results if the senator narrowly loses. Election experts predicted the administration won’t succeed. “The feds have absolutely zero standing or authority to interfere with state certification,” said David Becker, a former Justice Department voting rights attorney who is head of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research.
4. Michigan: Could flip from Democrat to Republican
Michigan is perhaps Republicans’ best opportunity to flip a Democratic-held seat.
Mike Rogers is a former Republican congressman who narrowly lost a Senate race in 2024, in a good year for Republicans. He is running again. The Democrats’ candidate is the lightning-rod progressive Abdul El-Sayed. He doesn’t associate with the democratic socialist movement but has many progressive views, a biting campaigning style and a controversial campaign ally who has alienated some Jewish donors. Yet Trump is deeply unpopular in this purple state.
5. Texas: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas in three decades. But everything is going right for them this year. Democrats nominated James Talarico, a young seminarian who many Democrats say has the ability to unite his party and win over disaffected Trump voters.
Republicans nominated — with Trump’s help — one of the most controversial politicians in the state, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Insiders say the race could come down to how much money Republicans can spend. Aided by the massive wallet of tech billionaire Elon Musk, Paxton is trying to convince Republican-leaning voters that Talarico is too radical for the state.
6. Iowa: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Iowa Republicans have consistently won in the Trump era. But Iowa, like many farming states, is hurting from Trump’s tariffs and from rising gas, diesel and fertilizer prices resulting from the Iran war. “People are seeing the Republicans just sitting on their hands for years and years and not doing anything about this,” Bill Brauch, chairman of the Polk County Democrats, said in Iowa’s most populous county.
Rep. Ashley Hinson is the Republican nominee, and after starting the race promising to be Trump’s ally in the Senate, she’s trying to pitch herself as bipartisan.
Democrats’ candidate is state lawmaker Josh Turek. He’s a former Paralympian athlete and represents a legislative district that voted for Trump.
Republicans point out that Senate elections in Iowa are usually surprisingly close.
7. Kansas: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
In the final weeks of the election, Kansas has moved from a potentially competitive race to a truly competitive one, which is stunning considering Kansas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.
Kansas is another farming state hurting from Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war. Democrats have a unique candidate to try to take advantage of this moment: Adam Hamilton is a fifth-generation Kansan and the founder of one of the largest churches in the state.
His Republican opponent, Sen. Roger Marshall, has struggled with voters. His 2020 election also was close. He has spent the past six years aligning himself with Trump’s policies.
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
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