Democrats trying to unseat Republicans in four battleground Pennsylvania House districts are ahead in two of them, hold a narrow edge in a third and are tied in a fourth, according to new polling from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University.
The four seats in Pennsylvania are seen as critical examples of some of the fights playing out nationwide. The districts include working-class communities in the state’s northeastern corner, growing towns with large Hispanic populations, a swing Philadelphia suburb and some more conservative parts of the center of the state.
In the 2024 election, Pennsylvania was one of the country’s biggest battlegrounds, and Republicans romped nearly everywhere. President Trump carried the state en route to being re-elected, and it was the only state in the country where Republicans flipped two House seats.
But the new polls show that Democrats are now leading in their bid to flip back both of those districts.
Taken together, the findings in the races for the four seats amount to another warning sign for a Republican Party that is increasingly at risk of losing its narrow House majority.
In Pennsylvania’s Eighth District, Representative Rob Bresnahan, a Republican, trails his Democratic challenger, Paige Cognetti, the Democratic mayor of Scranton, 46 percent to 51 percent. Ms. Cognetti and her supporters have run numerous ads accusing Mr. Bresnahan of profiting from insider stock trading, and voters in Pennsylvania gave her an 11-point edge when asked which candidate they would trust to handle corruption.
In Pennsylvania’s Seventh District, Representative Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican, is behind his Democratic rival, Bob Brooks, the head of a local firefighters union, by five points. In 2024, Mr. Trump won the swing district by three points, and Mr. Mackenzie prevailed by one point.
The survey in the diverse district also found that Mr. Brooks had a wide lead among nonwhite voters, as both candidates court the Hispanic vote in cities such as Allentown.
The other two races are closer.
In Pennsylvania’s 10th District, Representative Scott Perry, a Republican, is tied at 48 percent with Janelle Stelson, a Democrat and former news broadcaster, in a rematch of their 2024 race. Ms. Stelson is favored on the issue that voters said they cared most about — the cost of living — but it has not so far been enough to pull away from Mr. Perry in a district where he is still favored on immigration.
In Pennsylvania’s First District, Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, the Republican, trails his Democratic challenger, Bob Harvie, a local county commissioner in Bucks County, 46 percent to 48 percent. This seat is the mostDemocratic of the four, and Mr. Fitzpatrick is one of only three current House Republicans to represent a district that Mr. Trump lost in 2024.
Money has poured into the race in recent weeks, as Democrats believe this is the year they will finally be able to defeat Mr. Fitzpatrick, who has defied his district’s Democratic lean in presidential elections for a decade.
On the issues, voters repeatedly say they trust Mr. Harvie more. Even on immigration, traditionally an area where Republicans excel, the Democrat has a two-point advantage.
And voters worry that the Republican Mr. Fitzpatrick, whose district has voted against Mr. Trump for president each time Mr. Fitzpatrick has appeared on the ballot, is too cozy with the president. Nearly half of voters said they were worried that Mr. Fitzpatrick was too supportive of Mr. Trump.
Still, Mr. Fitzpatrick is holding his own in the fight for his political life, boosted by the support of 20 percent of voters who say they plan to support Josh Shapiro, the popular Democratic governor who is running for re-election.
All told, across these four congressional races, roughly $100 million in advertising is set to have aired since the start of September, according to the ad-tracking service AdImpact.
Overall, Mr. Trump is unpopular in the districts represented by the four seats, with a 39 percent overall approval rating. Though low, it is higher than his approval rating nationally or statewide in Pennsylvania. Democrats are hoping to take advantage of a favorable political environment.
Mr. Shapiro, who has run well ahead of his Republican challenger, Stacy Garrity, this year, is leading her by 18 points across the four districts, similar to his 19-point margin statewide in a September Times/Inquirer/Siena poll.
But even as Mr. Shapiro is peeling off the support of about 15 percent of Republicans in these districts, those voters appear poised to split their tickets and back G.O.P. candidates in their home communities.
Mr. Perry, who is the former chairman of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, has aggressively defended the war in Iran and backed many of Mr. Trump’s signature policies.
Of the four districts polled, Mr. Trump appears to be the most popular in Mr. Perry’s district. Half of voters there said they approved of the president’s approach on immigration, including 44 percent of political independents.
Voters also seemed to back the Republican Mr. Perry’s support for the president. More said they trusted Mr. Perry to handle immigration and foreign wars, even as Ms. Stelson enjoyed a substantial advantage on cost of living, with more voters saying they would trust her to “do what’s best for ordinary Pennsylvanians.”
Across the four key battlegrounds, economic issues ranked as the most important: 25 percent of voters rated the economy as their top issue, and another 13 percent said that the cost of living or inflation was the most important. No other issue cracked double digits.
Mr. Trump had a 32 percent approval rating when it came to how he was handling the cost of living. Yet the Democratic congressional candidates had only a six-point edge over the Republican incumbents on the issue.
Voter dissatisfaction with Mr. Trump, though, is broadly apparent in the polls.
In the four districts, half of white voters without a college degree — a contingent that is the backbone of Mr. Trump’s base and a decisive voting bloc in Pennsylvania — disapproved of Mr. Trump’s job performance. Sixty percent disapproved of his handling of cost of living.
That dissatisfaction with Mr. Trump’s approach to economic issues among white working-class voters is playing out across the country.
The Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania are not winning among white voters without a college degree. But the 40 percent support they are garnering is a noteworthy incursion into what has typically been the base of the Republican Party during the Trump era.
Overall, Ms. Cognetti had the most favorable image of the eight candidates for the four seats. By a margin of 10 points, more viewed her favorably than unfavorably. That was far better than her opponent, Mr. Bresnahan, who had a net favorability rating of just one point. Particularly concerning for Republicans is his favorability among political independents — a crucial group — with whom he is underwater by 13 points.
Voters also have concerns about Mr. Bresnahan’s character. He is tied for the lowest rating among the eight candidates — 39 percent — when it comes to who voters think has strong character. Ms. Cognetti, on the other hand, tops the list. Half of voters in the Eighth District, including 11 percent of Republicans, said the Democratic Ms. Cognetti had better character than Mr. Bresnahan.
Across all the issues included in the poll, Democrats held one of their widest leads when it came to who voters trusted to address the growing concern about data centers used to power artificial intelligence. In the Seventh District, where data centers have become a central issue, Mr. Brooks had a 10-point advtange over Mr. Mackenzie.
The polls, though, suggest that the issue — despite its prominence in recent television ads — may not be decisive. Just 2 percent of voters listed A.I. or data centers as their top issue.
The post Democrats Have Edge Across Four Key House Races in Pennsylvania, Polls Find appeared first on New York Times.
