Democrats did well in much of the country in the 2022 midterm elections, except for one conspicuous spot: Florida, the once-preeminent battleground that Republicans swept that year in a blowout.
Major Democratic donors and political groups mostly abandoned the state after that. Many had already given up on Florida after losing races for Senate and governor by recount margins in 2018, another otherwise good year for Democrats.
So Republicans notched more wins in 2024.
Much of the same was expected this year. But ruby-red Florida may be starting to look a lighter shade of red.
In the final days of this year’s midterms, big-name politicians from both parties have been making the trek to Florida more than they did in the recent past. On Friday, President Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Fort Myers, a bastion of reliable MAGA voters in his adopted home state. He is expected to urge his supporters to turn out in force, as they have in past elections, to cast their ballots for Senator Ashley Moody, who is seeking re-election, and for Representative Byron Donalds, who is running for governor.
Both Ms. Moody and Mr. Donalds are favored to win. But some polls have suggested the contests are closer than expected, especially in the governor’s race, which would be striking in a state that Mr. Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024. Gov. Ron DeSantis won re-election in 2022 by nearly 20 points.
Top Democrats and progressives have started to look at Florida with some interest, despite remaining wary about a state they have repeatedly failed to win this decade.
Former President Bill Clinton campaigned and raised money for David Jolly, the Democratic nominee for governor, in South Florida this week. Last weekend, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont drew thousands of people to four rallies for State Representative Angie Nixon, the Democratic Senate nominee. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader, are scheduled to hold virtual events for Ms. Nixon. (Former President Barack Obama has not weighed in on either race.)
Ms. Nixon, a former union organizer, has focused on a grass-roots campaign to turn out Democratic voters who do not usually cast ballots in midterms. Mr. Trump, with his visit, intends to draw out similar low-propensity Republican voters.
The appearances of big-name surrogates, and of Mr. Trump, suggest that both parties are seeing movement among Florida voters that they had not seen in years.
“Floridians are dealing with the consequences of Trump’s failed agenda every single day,” Nikki Fried, the chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, told reporters on Thursday. “Everything is more expensive.”
The most competitive races may be down the ballot, where several House districts have become unexpectedly close, according to polls. The Democrats’ campaign arm entered the election cycle targeting three districts; it is now looking at eight of them, though some are reaches.
Republican state lawmakers redrew the congressional map this year to create four additional Republican-leaning districts. Democrats now say they might hold at least two of those districts — and possibly three.
In South Florida, Representative Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat, appears to be leading Scott Singer, a Republican and the former mayor of Boca Raton, in a district that Mr. Trump won by nine points in 2024. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted that contest away from Republicans, to “Lean Democratic.”
In the Tampa area, Representative Kathy Castor, another Democratic candidate, is running against Mike Beltran, a Republican and former state representative, in a district that Mr. Trump won by 11 points. In a new district that stretches from Broward County west across the Florida peninsula, Pia Dandiya, a Democrat and former high school principal, is running against Casey Askar, a Republican businessman and former Marine. Mr. Trump won that district by 10 points. The Cook Political Report has rated both of those districts “Tossup.”
The unusual dynamics have prompted unexpected activity in other, less competitive races, where Democrats dream of unseating a Republican or two. The main super PAC for House Democrats, called the House Majority PAC, is spending money in the Tampa area against Representative Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican who is facing a challenge from Leela Gray, a retired Army brigadier general. One of the issues the rivals have tussled over is corruption, or perceived corruption, in Congress.
Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic House leader, campaigned last week in the Miami area for Eliott Rodriguez, a Democrat and former television news anchor who is challenging Representative María Elvira Salazar, a Republican. His visit included a stop at a Cuban coffee shop that was later attacked online as sympathizing with socialists. Ms. Salazar has campaigned as an anti-communist.
Republicans say that even if national headwinds eat into their recent victory margins, the party has structural advantages, including robust fund-raising and gerrymandered congressional districts, that are difficult for Democrats to overcome. Crucially, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state by 1.5 million voters.
“We need to turn those people out,” said Evan Power, the Republican Party of Florida chairman. “If we turn them out, we will win.”
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