Morgan Chittum here. More bad news in the IPO market this week.
On Monday, Chinese manufacturer Kepuni Holdings withdrew plans for a Nasdaq listing that had been expected to raise $15 million. A day later, Gravitics Holdings slashed its deal size by a whopping 60% ahead of the space-system developer’s $50 million IPO.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s Elice Group plunged 32% on its first day of trading due to jitters about AI-related stocks. According to Dealogic data, it was the country’s worst-ever debut for a company that raised more than $100 million.
Sure, these are small deals in the grand scheme of 2026. SpaceX had a record-breaking $75 billion public offering in June. But they add to a string of recent disappointments. (Let’s not forget when Oura, the smart-ring maker behind one of the season’s most anticipated IPOs, shelved plans just hours before pricingshares in September.)
The problem, according to Jay Ritter, director of the University of Florida’s IPO Initiative, has come down to valuations. “Some of those companies have pulled their IPOs, rather than accepting a less optimistic valuation than they had hoped to get,” Ritter, known as “Mr. IPO,” told me. “You’re just asking too much. It’s not that you’ve got a bad business model. It’s a question of price.”
So, what’s it going to take to reignite the IPO market in 2026? After all, the first six months of the year were great in terms of deal proceeds at roughly $137 billion, partly thanks to SpaceX. Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, told me that a fruitful public debut from Anthropic could do the trick.
“There’s no question, a successful Anthropic IPO would be a huge win for the rest of the market,” Kennedy said, pointing to the deal’s potentially landmark size.
A long-time Anthropic investor, who asked not to be named, told Fortune’s Shawn Tully that he expects shares to be priced at roughly $1.8 trillion. Although it’s below the Claude creator’s $2 trillion target, the investor predicts a post-IPO trading value of up to $2.4 trillion. That tops SpaceX’s $2.1 trillion market cap at the end of its first trading day.
Kennedy added, “When investors make money with IPOs, they begin to put that money back into work on future deals.”
But Anthropic’s IPO is still up in the air. The company hasn’t said when it will file, and it does face a number of risk factors. On Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported a new draft prospectus where the AI giant disclosed an $80.7 billion net loss for the first six months of the year. There was still breakneck revenue growth for Anthropic. The company garnered revenue of roughly $16.3 billion for the first half of 2026, much higher than $1.1 billion during the year-ago period.
Another wrinkle: Time is of the essence. The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg both previously reported that Anthropic is preparing for a potential November IPO. With that timeline in mind, Renaissance Capital’s Kennedy says a filing could come out as soon as Friday. But any delay would leave less room for a 2026 debut—and for other companies to follow suit—before the end of the year. With midterm elections and the holiday season approaching, more prospective issuers could opt to wait until early 2027.
That would push back a potential rebound in deals but not necessarily derail it. After all, Kennedy said the benefits of a successful Anthropic listing could extend well into next year.
“With such a large deal, I think this has legs,” he said. “It can help 2027 activity.”
See you tomorrow,
Morgan Chittum X: @morgan_chittum Email: [email protected]
Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here.
Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.
The post Is Anthropic the IPO market’s last hope for 2026? The clock is ticking appeared first on Fortune.
