Michael Lucchese is an associate editor of Law & Liberty and a contributing editor at Providence magazine.
For a decade, President Donald Trump has held an iron grip on Republican politics. A Trump endorsement remains the likeliest way for a candidate to win a primary, and nominees who incur his wrath risk enraging the GOP’s base and depressing turnout on Election Day.
Nonetheless, Republican Senate nominees in key states are distancing themselves from the administration’s policies in their closing pitches. With the president’s approval rating sinking, it makes sense for candidates to back away. The sluggish economy and international crises dominating the headlines hardly make it seem like Trump’s second-term agenda is ushering in his promised “golden age.”
The most fundamental shift on display is a pivot away from a populist ideology to a more traditional conservatism. Campaigns are still running plenty of ads on culture-war issues and immigration, but the loudest Republican rallying cries are against socialism. The White House and many of the right-wing think tanks in the Washington establishment have spent years trying to move the GOP left on economic issues, but the candidates in the trenches are returning — at least rhetorically — to old Reaganite orthodoxies such as small government, free markets and low taxes.
Take Senate candidate Mike Rogers of Michigan. He recently released an ad calling for an end to the administration’s futile protectionism. “Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy,” he declares. “We need to end this tariff war now.” At the height of Trump’s powers, a Republican candidate breaking with his trade policies so decisively was almost unheard of. What Rogers understands, though, is that tariffs hurt far more Americans than they help, and it’s showing in the polls — especially in a state like Michigan, where exports fuel the economy. Rogers may not be willing to call Trump out by name, but the message is clear.
Recent polling suggests that inflation is the No. 1 issue for most midterm voters. Although Trump promised to reverse the Biden administration’s inflationary policies, his time in office has been marked by more of the same. Prices at the grocery store and the gas pump continue to rise, and the Trump administration’s unbridled protectionism has failed even to reduce the trade deficit (which has grown considerably in recent months). Big Tech stocks may be booming, but average consumers have seen few of the benefits.
To make matters worse, the administration’s attempts to calm voters’ economic anxieties have been largely tone-deaf. Trump’s pledge to send every American a $5,000 check should Republicans retain control of Congress would cause even more inflation. And JD Vance’s bizarre definition of “socialism” — “that you want to replace American workers with foreign workers, and you want boys to play in girls’ sports,” he said this month — suggests the vice president has lost the plot on why, despite its recent spike in popularity on the left, most Americans still dislike the ideology. Perhaps he realizes how similar his interventionist platform is to the progressivism of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts).
Republicans might be able to defy dire midterm projections if they offer an actual free-market alternative to the Democrats’ radical agenda. What Rogers and other Republicans running to the administration’s right on economic issues know is that the so-called realignment has produced failed policies and is increasingly unpopular. A large share of voters do not want bribes, and a majority don’t even trust the Trump administration to follow through on the promised checks; they want lower prices and less regulation so their families and businesses can flourish.
Republican candidates are breaking with Trump on foreign affairs, too. Late last month, Senate candidate Ashley Hinson of Iowa released a statement calling for “a successful and immediate end” to the conflict with Iran. Although she supports its principal objectives and has voted in its favor, her statement shows she understands that the chaotic and unfocused conduct of the war is dragging down her support.
Conservatives are also quietly distancing themselves from Trump’s soft approach to Russia and China. Senate candidate Mark Baisley of Colorado supports supplying Ukraine with more weapons to fend off Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s invasion. And despite Trump’s cuddly embrace of Chinese dictator Xi Jinping at a recent summit, Republicans continue to argue against appeasing the despot. Rhetorically, at least, many conservatives remain more committed to a Reaganite “peace through strength” vision of national security than Trump’s unfocused, unprincipled dealmaking with America’s enemies.
It remains to be seen whether congressional Republicans have done enough to distance themselves from the administration’s failures — the forecasts do not bode well. What is clear is that the GOP’s populist turn has seriously damaged the party’s future. Voters are alienated by the new ideology of the right, and put off by the cult of personality that the new establishment viciously enforces. Old formulas may not be the answer to every present issue, but the enduring principles of a limited government and strong foreign policy are a better bet than whatever Trump’s Republican Party is offering now.
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