AI coding has hit an ‘intelligence saturation’ point, Cognition cofounder says

• Cognition’s cofounder said software engineering AI models are “intelligence saturated.”
• AI model baselines improved — so smarter, more capable models aren’t pulling as many users, he said.
• Instead, the focus could turn to speed and price.

For years, the AI race has favored the smarter model.

Russell Kaplan, the president and cofounder of AI coding startup Cognition, the company behind software-engineering platform Devin, said that could be changing for a growing number of software-engineering tasks.

“Many tasks within software engineering are now ‘intelligence saturated,'” Kaplan wrote in a post on Monday. “Once any model can do the task well, cost and speed are all that matter.”

This is directionally consistent with our internal data @cognition. Many tasks within software engineering are now “intelligence saturated.” Once any model can do the task well, cost and speed are all that matter.

— Russell Kaplan (@russelljkaplan) October 19, 2026

Kaplan was responding to an article from The Information. Their reporting found that a 10-point advantage in model intelligence now delivers just 20% more developer traffic, down from nearly 69% in late 2025.

He said that story is “directionally consistent” with what is happening inside Cognition.

That could be a sizable strategic shift for the AI companies fighting to win software developers and enterprise contracts. OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Google, and a growing crop of AI labs have all highlighted their increasingly capable coding tools as a reason to choose their models.

Now, as those AI agents get better at routine tasks, one model’s slightly smarter approach could matter less to users if another model is cheaper and faster.

Kaplan didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

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