As the Nov. 3 midterms draw closer, the political environment appears increasingly favorable for Democrats and grim for Republicans. The battlefield of competitive races is expanding and reaching red districts once considered locks for the GOP, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Democrats need to net only three new House seats to win the majority: Republicans currently have 219 seats (including one held by an independent who caucuses with them) to Democrats’ 214.
President Donald Trump’s low favorability with voters — his approval rating is stuck in the 30s — plus high prices and the unpopular war with Iran are adding to the advantage Democrats already hold as the party out of power.
In September, we compiled a list of the key themes and campaigns to watch based on the races the Cook Political Report classifies as competitive. Here’s an updated version of this list, with new races added and ones where Democrats or Republicans are now heavily favored removed.
The surprising new battlegrounds
The Cook Political Report recently gave Democrats a better chance of flipping these seats in GOP strongholds, raising alarms among Republicans.
Colorado District 5: Rep. Jeff Crank (R) vs. Jessica Killin (D)
- Crank is facing a well-funded Democratic opponent in Army veteran Jessica Killin, former chief of staff to second gentleman Doug Emhoff, in a district that has shifted left.
Florida District 13: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R) vs. Leela Gray (D)
- Democrats have failed before to oust Luna. But she is a controversial figure in the House and faces a well-funded opponent in Gray, who has sought to portray Luna as too extreme.
Florida District 27: Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R) vs. Eliott Rodriguez (D)
- Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement is a central issue in this district, which is 74 percent Hispanic. Salazar released an ad last month telling Trump his immigration policies have “gone too far.”
Minnesota District 1: Rep. Brad Finstad (R) vs. Jake Johnson (D)
- Finstad, who has held the seat since 2022, has won with robust margins in the past. The national drama that has hounded Minnesota over allegations of widespread fraud may help Republicans this cycle, and now Finstad is running a competitive race against Johnson, a teacher. Trump won this district by nearly 13 points in 2024.
Ohio District 10: Rep. Mike Turner (R) vs. Kristina Knickerbocker (D)
- Turner, a former mayor of Dayton, has held this seat since 2003, often reelected by wide margins. Now he’s running in a tighter race against Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran, and during a year when the two Republicans at the top of the ballot — Sen. Jon Husted and gubernatorial hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy — are struggling.
Ohio District 15: Rep. Mike Carey (R) vs. Don Leonard
- Carey, who first came to the seat in a 2021 special election, is running against former Ohio State University professor Don Leonard. Like Turner, a strong performance by Democrats running statewide could hurt his reelection effort.
Wisconsin District 1: Rep. Bryan Steil (R) vs. Mitchell Berman (D)
- This district has been held by a Republican for more than 30 years. But the district grew more competitive under new maps in 2022, and Steil is on defense in this political landscape.
Some of the newly competitive races are for open seats in districts that Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
- In New York’s 21st District, a seat held by outgoing Rep. Elise Stefanik, dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) is running against Republican amateur rapper Anthony Constantino, the CEO of a sticker company.
- In South Carolina’s 1st District, held by outgoing Rep. Nancy Mace, retired Navy admiral Nancy Lacore (D) is running against Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R), a Charleston County Council member.
- In Kentucky’s 6th district, held by outgoing Rep. Andy Barr, former state lawmaker and state health commissioner Ralph Alvarado (R) faces former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo (D).
Other open seats
More House Republicans than usual have chosen not to seek reelection this year, opting instead to retire or run for other offices — and leaving behind open seats that Democrats see as key flip opportunities. Incumbency usually provides an advantage in campaigns.
Competitive after Republicans sought higher office
- After Reps. John James of Michigan’s 10th District and David Schweikert of Arizona’s 1st District gave up their seats to run for governor, Cook classified the races to succeed them as toss-ups. Democrat Amish Shah faces Republican Jay Feely in the Arizona race, while Democrat Christina Hines faces Republican Michael Bouchard in the Michigan race. In Iowa’s 2nd District, Republican Joe Mitchell is narrowly favored to beat Democrat Lindsay James for the seat vacated by Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running for Senate.
Post-redistricting pickup opportunities
- Following an onslaught of mid-decade redistricting nationwide, some members of Congress chose to not run for reelection in their districts, leaving their party without an incumbency advantage. Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Florida) decided to run in another district after the 22nd District she represents was redrawn to favor Republicans, leaving Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar vying for her seat. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-California) decided to retire from Congress after the 48th District he represents was redrawn to favor Democrats, leaving Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond competing for the seat.
Some vacancies may help Republicans
- Rep. Chuck Edwards suspended his reelection campaign for North Carolina’s 11th District after a House investigation found he engaged in “persistent unprofessional and inappropriate conduct” toward two female staffers. Republicans replaced him with Jennifer Balkcom, a state lawmaker, to face farmer Jamie Ager.
Scandal-tainted races
New Jersey District 7: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) vs. Rebecca Bennett (D)
- Kean, who was elected in 2022, was criticized for his lack of transparency when he stopped showing up to House votes for four months this spring and gave little explanation. When he returned to the House in June, the congressman revealed he had sought treatment for depression.
Ohio District 7: Rep. Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D)
- Miller has been accused by his ex-wife of domestic abuse, which he denies, and is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee. Both of Ohio’s Republican senators — including Bernie Moreno, the father of Miller’s ex-wife — have previously called for Miller to step aside in a district that’s normally a GOP stronghold.
Texas District 28: Tano Tijerina (R) vs. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D)
- Cuellar, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, was indicted in 2024 on federal bribery and money-laundering charges and still won reelection by five percentage points. He and his wife denied wrongdoing, and President Donald Trump pardoned him in 2025. His district still leans Democratic, but it was redrawn in 2025 to be more competitive for Republicans.
Redistricting backfire
Partisan redistricting in some states may backfire or not be enough to combat other forces in some races. Election forecasters have found some districts drawn to favor the GOP are more competitive than expected in a favorable environment for Democrats.
Potential Texas Latino rebellion
- Recently redrawn districts in Texas will test whether Latino voters who shifted right in 2024 will swing back toward Democrats. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) faces popular Mexican American musician Bobby Pulido in a 15th District redrawn to be slightly less red and siphon Republican voters elsewhere. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) is now running in the 34th District that Trump would have won by 10 points in 2024. Johnny Garcia (D) and Carlos De La Cruz (R) are competing for the open, dramatically redrawn 35th District.
Targeted Florida Democrats still stand a shot
- Florida Democratic Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz remain competitive running in new districts, even though Republicans drew their formerly Democratic-friendly seats into districts that Trump would’ve won by nine and 11 points in 2024, respectively. Castor faces Mike Beltran in the 14th District and Moskowitz faces Scott Singer in the 25th District.
Alabama District 2: Rhett Marques (R) vs Rep. Shomari Figures (D)
- The Supreme Court decision that weakened a key section of the Voting Rights Act made it easier for Alabama to eliminate the state’s second majority-Black district, which Figures won in 2024. Democrats are still hopeful that Figures can keep his job if Black voter turnout surges in protest of redistricting.
North Carolina District 1: Laurie Buckhout (R) vs Rep. Don Davis (D)
- North Carolina Republicans redrew Davis’s district to become more GOP-friendly, reducing the voting-age Black population from about 40 percent to 32 percent. He hopes to overcome redistricting with a moderate voting record and relationships in the new coastal parts of his district.
California District 13: Kevin Lincoln (R) vs Rep. Adam Gray (D)
- California redrew the district to become more favorable to the incumbent Democrat, partly turning the seat from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.” But Republicans hope Lincoln, a former mayor with ties to the district, will flip the seat.
Republicans in Harris country
Some of the easiest pickup opportunities for Democrats should be GOP-held seats in areas carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. Cook now deems one race previously on this list, Nebraska’s 2nd District, a likely Democratic flip after the longtime GOP incumbent retired.
New York District 17: Rep. Mike Lawler (R) vs. Cait Conley (D)
- Lawler, a moderate Republican, has campaigned with Trump despite representing a district Harris won by less than a point. Democrats got their preferred candidate in Conley, an Army veteran who led federal election security efforts during the 2024 election.
Pennsylvania District 1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Bob Harvie (D)
- Fitzpatrick, a moderate Republican, is seen as a strong candidate to hold a district Harris narrowly won, because he consistently outperforms Republicans and has the support of traditionally Democratic labor unions. But Democrats are bullish that Harvie, a county commissioner, could flip it in an anti-GOP year.
Democrats in Trump country
Democrats are defending a host of seats that Trump won in the most recent presidential election. While several Democratic lawmakers survived only narrowly in 2024, the group is better positioned in a year expected to be more favorable to their party and where Trump has low approval ratings. These are the most competitive ones:
New Mexico District 2: Greg Cunningham (R) vs. Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D)
- Vasquez represents a district that borders Mexico and has taken a harder line on immigration enforcement than others in his party. He faces Cunningham, a Marine veteran who is also Latino and running on law and order.
Ohio District 9: Derek Merrin (R) vs. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)
- Surviving a partisan gerrymander is nothing new to the longest-serving woman in congressional history. Over the course of her career, Kaptur did it no fewer than five times. This year, the lines have been drawn to make it even tougher for Kaptur, now running in a district that Trump won by 11 points in 2024.
Washington District 3: John Braun (R) vs. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
- Gluesenkamp Perez, who has voted with Republicans at times, won by a comfortable margin in 2024 against a hard-line GOP challenger even as Trump won the district by about three percentage points. But this time, she’s up against a more moderate Republican state senator.
The progressive test
Most progressive Democrats, as well as candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, are running this year in safely Democratic districts. Some progressive candidates, however, are running in crucial swing seats, testing their theory that populist economic policies can win in competitive races.
Montana District 1: Aaron Flint (R) vs. Sam Forstag (D)
- Forstag, a smoke jumper and former union leader, faces Flint, the chosen successor of retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke, for this open seat that Cook considered likely Republican just weeks ago. Flint argues Forstag is too far left for the district because he campaigned with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) during the primary.
California District 22: Rep. David G. Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D)
- Valadao has repeatedly won in California after distancing himself from Trump, though he lost the seat for one term after the 2018 blue wave. Villegas, a progressive Democrat, defeated a more moderate candidate backed by House Democrats’ campaign arm in the primary.
Colorado District 8: Rep. Gabe Evans (R) vs. Manny Rutinel (D)
- Evans, a moderate Republican, will face Rutinel, a progressive state lawmaker and former animal rights activist who defeated a more moderate Democrat in the primary. Rutinel has moved to the middle on some issues, including health care and fracking.
Maine District 2: Paul LePage (R) vs. Matt Dunlap (D)
- Moderate Rep. Jared Golden (D) is retiring from one of the reddest, Democratic-held districts, which Trump won by nearly 10 points in 2024. Dunlap, the progressive state auditor, defeated an establishment-backed Democrat in the primary to face LePage, a former two-term governor.
Michigan District 7: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) vs. William Lawrence (D)
- Lawrence, a progressive activist who co-founded the Sunrise Movement and beat more moderate Democrats in the primary, offended Black politicians by accusing them in 2024 of being “a pillar, frankly, for establishment, capitalist, imperialist American power.” Lawrence, who is White, said on X that his words were “clumsy” but taken out of context and that he was talking about anti-war politics within the Black community.
Hard-right test
These hard-right incumbents are fighting to defend their seats from moderates. Their candidacies test whether Republicans will be punished for running too far to the right or can turn out MAGA voters to win.
Pennsylvania District 10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) vs. Janelle Stelson (D)
- Perry, a former Freedom Caucus chair, played a prominent role in Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. Stelson is a former television news anchor who almost beat him in 2024.
Wisconsin District 3: Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) vs. Rebecca Cooke (D)
- Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL, has faced scrutiny over his presence outside the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and baseless comments after the shootings of Democratic Minnesota lawmakers last year. Cooke is a small-business owner who came within three points of victory in 2024.
Traditional GOP incumbents
These four Republicans have held on to their districts as generally mainstream conservatives who usually vote with their party. They, at times, have overperformed Trump or surprisingly beaten the odds.
Iowa District 1: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Christina Bohannan (D)
- Miller-Meeks is facing the same Democratic challenger for the third time in a row, after winning by only 799 votes in 2024 in a district that includes the more liberal Iowa City and parts of the University of Iowa area.
Michigan 4th District: Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) vs. Sean McCann (D)
- Huizenga overperformed Trump in 2024 by six points, making him one of the rare Republicans more popular than the president. Still, Democrats see this as a pickup opportunity given the state’s shift to the left.
Pennsylvania District 7: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) vs. Bob Brooks (D)
- Mackenzie is one of the most vulnerable Republicans this cycle, running in a district Trump won by about three percentage points in 2024 but that he only won by one point. Democrats have embraced Brooks, a former firefighter union leader, as ideal to win over White working-class Trump voters.
Virginia District 1: Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vs. Shannon Taylor (D)
- Wittman usually wins reelection comfortably, but the race is considered more competitive this year after Trump only won the district by five percentage points in 2024 and the Democratic gubernatorial candidate won it by two points last year. The Richmond suburbs in the district have rapidly trended blue.
Moderate GOP incumbents
These are relatively moderate Republicans defending their seats, testing whether moving to the center and occasionally bucking their party, while staying conservative on some issues, could win over left-leaning and independent voters.
Arizona District 6: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) vs JoAnna Mendoza (D)
- Ciscomani narrowly won his 2024 race in this heavily Hispanic Arizona district near the U.S.-Mexico border. He supported pathways to legal status for people brought to the U.S. illegally as children.
Iowa District 3: Rep. Zach Nunn (R) vs. Sarah Trone Garriott (D)
- Nunn isn’t part of the Problem Solvers Caucus that many Republicans join to signal they are moderate, but he has been ranked among the most bipartisan members of Congress and was the only Iowa Republican to vote to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Pennsylvania District 8: Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R) vs. Paige Cognetti (D)
- Bresnahan is defending his Scranton-area seat after narrowly beating a longtime Democratic incumbent in 2024. He has tried to establish a bipartisan reputation with work on infrastructure and agricultural issues.
Virginia District 2: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) vs. Elaine Luria (D)
- Kiggans is in a rematch against the former two-term Democratic representative she ousted in 2022. She is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in a district Trump won in 2024 by just 0.27 points. Last year, Kiggans advanced a bipartisan plan to expand ACA enhanced subsidies.
Ben Binday, Dan Merica and Karen Tumulty contributed to this report.
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