The downward trend in overall grosses is likely to continue at the box office this weekend. But amidst that bummer news comes a ray of hope for the long struggling documentary space courtesy of a film we didn’t even knew existed two months ago: A24’s “You Can See Everything.”
With a release this weekend in just approximately 800 locations, Noah Oppenheim and Nathan Fielder’s surprise documentary about convicted Silicon Valley fraudster Elizabeth Holmes won’t top the wide openings of Paramount/Legendary’s “Street Fighter” or 20th Century Studios’ “Whalefall.”
But with a projected opening of at least $8 million — which would be a spectacular per theater average of at least $10,000 — “You Can See Everything” could be the biggest opening weekend for a non-music documentary since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The film that currently holds that distinction? “Melania,” the Brett Ratner-directed, Amazon MGM-distributed doc about First Lady Melania Trump that got panned by critics but earned a $7.1 million opening and a $16.3 million cume primarily from older, female Trump supporters this past February.
During Donald Trump’s first presidency in the 2010s, documentaries like “RBG” and “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” found specialty success in theaters alongside non-political docs like “Free Solo.”
But in the years since, with major players like Participant Pictures closing their doors, it has only been music docs and concert films like “Becoming Led Zeppelin” and “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” that have turned out audiences on the big screen or have even received major streaming distribution deals. So too have scripted films that tackle political and social issues like “Digger” and “The Social Reckoning” flailed at the box office this month.
But in a matter of weeks, “You Can See Everything” has done what so many docs have been unable to do and enter the pop culture consciousness, at least among cinephiles, thanks to a surprise premiere at the Telluride Film Festival and a viral teaser trailer that depicted Holmes telling Fielder with a wide-eyed, unnerving smile why he should trust her, with Fielder looking uncertain how to respond.
Since then, “You Can See Everything” has left seemingly everyone who has seen the film at festivals or industry screenings at a loss for words, and at time of writing, the doc has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score with 50 reviews logged. There’s even buzz that the film might be able to make history as the first documentary to be nominated for the Best Picture Oscar.
“The Social Reckoning” failed to convince audiences that its dive into Facebook’s neglect to tackle misinformation and teen internet addiction offered anything new or compelling beyond what they had seen in years worth of news reports. Holmes’ downfall as CEO of the disgraced biotech company Theranos has also been well documented not just in the media but in the Hulu miniseries “The Dropout.”
For “You Can See Everything,” the origins of the doc alone allow the film to pass the “What’s New” test. As Oppenheim explained at Telluride, it was Holmes herself who invited A24 to come to her house just before she was set to begin her 11-year prison sentence, with the indie studio asking him to pursue the project without any obligation to deliver a finished film.
From there, pre-release buzz has exploded over the doc’s second half, which sees Fielder continue to work on the documentary after Holmes goes to prison in ways that some critics have spoiled in their reviews while others have urged intrigued moviegoers not to look up online before they see it.
What is clear is that like Fielder’s hit HBO Max show “The Rehearsal,” the final result of “You Can See Everything” is a film that goes from questioning Holmes’ believability to the very nature of documentaries themselves and how the subjectivity of the filmmaker informs even the most factually rigorous movies within the medium.
A24 has not disclosed if or when it will expand “You Can See Everything” to a wider screen count, but with an $8 million-plus opening it would have a solid chance of clearing $20 million in domestic grosses. If it clears $22 million, it will become the highest grossing non-music doc since “Won’t You Be My Neighbor,” which grossed $22.4 million in the U.S. in 2018, all against a combined marketing and production budget reported to be under $20 million.
Not a massive contribution to the overall box office, but considering it is from a film that wasn’t expected to be in theaters and from a section of the theatrical market that has been nonexistent for the past five years, it will be a refreshing change of pace, especially for exhibitors that regularly serve audiences that show up for A24’s films.
In wider release, the likely No. 1 film this weekend will be “Street Fighter,” Kitao Sakurai’s colorful, over-the-top adaptation of Capcom’s famed fighting game series. The film is reported to have a budget of at least $82 million, with Legendary and Capcom co-financing the film and Paramount releasing it as the first film in a new distribution deal with Legendary.
As Paramount’s first film following Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros., “Street Fighter” won’t cost the studio if it doesn’t work out. But right now, signs point to the film struggling to find a wider audience beyond the fighting game community. Paramount is projecting a domestic opening weekend in the $30 million range with a global opening around $70 million.
For comparison, Warner Bros./New Line’s R-Rated “Mortal Kombat II” opened to $38.5 million domestic and $69 million worldwide, going on to gross just $79.7 million in North America and $129.5 million globally. For “Street Fighter,” the hope is that the franchise’s far less gory art style and PG-13 rating will attract a larger swath of male moviegoers who just want to see cool action on the big screen regardless of how familiar they are with the source material.
But theatrical sources tell TheWrap that based on lagging presales and only somewhat positive word-of-mouth, a $22-25 million domestic opening may be in the cards for “Street Fighter.” While fellow Capcom adaptation “Resident Evil” goes light on the game references and has been rewarded with strong box office legs by moviegoers who aren’t gamers but just love a good horror film, “Street Fighter” lovingly piles on references with faithful recreations of the game’s music, sound effects and signature moves like Ryu’s Hadouken fireball attack.
But as we’ve seen with movies like “Masters of the Universe,” “Transformers One,” and “Mortal Kombat II,” a film based on an IP that doesn’t have a large enough core fanbase can fall off fast theatrically even if the buzz among those fans is strong. At time of writing, with less than 24 hours before Thursday preview screenings begin, the review embargo on “Street Fighter” still hasn’t dropped, which doesn’t signal a lot of confidence that critics will provide any help in boosting casual interest.
Even if “Street Fighter” can’t outperform “Mortal Kombat II” despite somewhat stronger overseas expectations, it won’t be a major issue for Legendary as that studio has a guaranteed hit on its hands with “Dune: Part Three” — which Skydance will also release through Warner Bros. — coming out in December.
Also looking at a lackluster start is 20th Century’s “Whalefall,” which stars “Resident Evil” breakout lead Austin Abrams in a survival thriller about a scuba diver who is swallowed alive by a whale. Shot in California on a net $60 million budget, the film is projected for a $12 million domestic/$24 million global opening.
While not strictly speaking a horror film, the hope for “Whalefall” is that its terrifying premise will bring in some moviegoers looking for Halloween frights in the weeks ahead even with DC’s body horror film “Clayface” coming next week. Critics have generally enjoyed the film, giving it a 78% Rotten Tomatoes score.
Also hitting theaters this weekend is Focus Features’ “Sense & Sensibility,” Georgia Oakley’s adaptation of the Jane Austen classic starring Daisy Edgar-Jones and Caitríona Balfe. The film is projected for an $8 million opening from 2,436 locations and has a 76% Rotten Tomatoes scores.
Finally, on the niche front, Warner Bros.’ new specialty division Clockwork will make its debut under Skydance ownership with a one-week limited engagement, 4K restoration release of Ken Russell’s 1971 historical drama “The Devils,” which is being shown theatrically in its original director’s cut for the first time ever.
Telling the story of Urbain Grandier, a Catholic priest who was burned at the stake after being accused of witchcraft, “The Devils” was reviled upon release for its graphic violent and sexual content, leading to several minutes of the film being cut for its initial release. The uncut, NC-17 version presented by Clockwork premiered at Cannes this past May and will be released in 350 theaters this weekend.
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