With the midterms just weeks away, a cascade of attacks across the Middle East has left the Trump administration facing what one geopolitical expert called “only the BEGINNING of the October Surprise,” one that was predicted by another expert months prior.
Yemen’s Houthi militants carried out a deadly attack on Saudi Arabia’s capital Saturday, the third such attack in recent weeks. The Houthis have also strengthened their hold on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical global shipping chokepoint, much like the Strait of Hormuz, where strikes have intensified over the past several days, Al Jazeera reported Sunday.
Vessels have also been struck outside the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, such as a tanker struck in the Gulf of Oman, according to British Navy agency UKMTO data reviewed by Reuters, and Iraqi militias have been discovered to be coordinating with Iran to threaten its Gulf state neighbors.
“We are witnessing only the BEGINNING of the October Surprise. Vessels are being hit constantly by Iran. And not just ‘little hits.’ The radius of the strike area has expanded into the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf,” wrote geopolitical expert Brett Erickson Sunday in a statement published on social media.
“Ansar Allah (Houthis) are striking airports and energy infrastructure across Saudi [Arabia]. Iraqi militias are ready to join the fight. This is a disaster that a TODDLER could have predicted.”
The “October Surprise” Erickson described was predicted back in August by foreign policy expert Trita Parsi, who warned at the time that President Donald Trump’s apparent strategy to “push the [Iran] conflict out of the minds of voters” would likely backfire.
“If Washington wants to keep things quiet until the midterms, Tehran may conclude that the optimal moment to strike back is two or three weeks before the Congressional elections, maximizing the political damage to Trump,” Parsi warned in August.
Parsi doubled down on his prediction in early September, warning that “all signs” were pointing to a “major escalation” from Iran sometime in October, just weeks away from the U.S. midterms.
We are witnessing only the BEGINNING of the October Surprise.Vessels are being hit constantly by Iran. And not just “little hits”. The radius of the strike area has expanded into the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf.Ansar Allah (Houthis) are striking airports and energy infrastructure across Saudi.Iraqi militias are ready to join the fight.This is a disaster that a TODDLER could have predicted. — Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) October 11, 2026
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