Democrats in Florida and Texas have surged thanks in part to President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings, Cook Political Report analysts said Thursday, shifting their rating of those races from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
“Cash-flush Republicans are still favored in both pricey states,” wrote Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for the nonpartisan election analysis site. “But given the grim political environment for the GOP, we can’t rule out the possibility of an upset.”
In Texas, three-term Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is playing defense as he loses supporters to state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D), Taylor noted, adding that polling “shows a tightening race, including GOP surveys that have shown the contest closing despite Abbott outspending Hinojosa by more than six to one.”
Hinojosa has attacked Abbott on data centers (an issue where Abbott has shifted by calling for more restrictions) and Flock cameras.
In Florida, surveys show Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman, either leading or narrowly trailing Rep. Byron Donalds (R) for the open seat, despite Donalds outspending his opponent. Property taxes, housing and immigration are leading issues, but so are Trump’s approval ratings. Donalds has distanced himself from the president, playing up his alignment with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) instead.
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