Doug Sosnik, a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000, is a senior adviser to the Brunswick Group. He writes on Substack.
The chaos of the 20 months since President Donald Trump returned to office is nothing compared with the volatility that will follow the midterms. In less than 40 days, the convergence of multiple forces will further destabilize the U.S. political system as the country moves beyond an era dominated by Trump. This period will trigger a full-throated debate about the future of the country as the ascendant wings of both political parties assume outsize influence amid the turmoil.
The future is uncertain, but based on all my years in politics, here is what I see coming:
A Democratic victory in the House — or even the Senate — is likely, and it will strip Trump of a compliant Congress. However, that could lead to Trump challenging the results of the midterms, which could sow disorder that could destabilize American democracy. The president has made no secret of his desire to influence how midterm elections are run.
Meanwhile, in the lame-duck session of Congress, the GOP will feel pressure to push through Trump’s legislative priorities. Government funding expires in December, forcing congressional Republicans to also use their last months in power to avert a government shutdown, all while funding the war in Iran. Trump may push for a debt limit increase, along with the passage of the Save America Act, the Republican-backed voter identification and registration bill. Debating these bills would waste valuable time for Republicans.
But once Democrats take control, Trump will functionally become a lame-duck president. Trump has always made his own interests his top priority — and significant midterm losses for the Republicans could increase the urgency he feels to define his legacy before he leaves office. As Trump continues to age, his attempts to secure his place in history will probably be paired with even more erratic behavior. That will put even more distance between his administration and the rest of the GOP.
The Republican Party will then begin to splinter. Trump’s popularity on the right has held together a variety of factions that were otherwise often in conflict with each other. Other figures without Trump’s singular appeal won’t be able to sustain that coalition — and the factions will begin fighting over who will define the party. Heavy Republican losses in November would widen these divisions. Already, the populist and establishment wings of the party are split. In an August NBC News Decision Desk poll, 45 percent of Republicans said they supported the MAGA movement over the party.
Democrats will face a different dynamic. After new members of Congress take office, Democrats will go on offense. They will move swiftly to use their oversight and subpoena power to investigate the administration and the Trump family’s business dealings. Investigations, hearings and even impeachment proceedings could define this new Congress.
A Democratic victory will also embolden the party’s far left. New House speaker Hakeem Jeffries would have to manage Democrats’ empowered progressive bloc, which could include several members aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America. And the progressives will have considerable leverage, since their views represent a growing share of the party. In the same NBC News Decision Desk poll, 58 percent of Democrats said they supported progressive causes more than the Democratic Party.
In both parties, the surge of populism will only intensify. Disparate populist forces are increasingly united in their opposition to political leaders who promote globalization and free markets. It is no longer surprising to see political figures such as Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) join in support of regulating artificial intelligence, opposing the war in Iran, limiting drug prices and capping credit card interest rates.
This growing alliance of unlikely partners could grant populist forces on both sides a much larger role in shaping discussions around policy and the 2028 presidential election. With the first open-seat presidential election in 12 years, wide-open primaries in both parties will push candidates to court their most engaged — and often most extreme — voters.
The two years between the midterms and the 2028 election will be a period of transition between two political eras: the Age of Trump and the Age After Trump. Although little of substance is likely to get done, the policy fights in Washington and in the presidential campaign will shape the country’s direction after the election. The Age of Trump will probably be remembered less for building a new architecture for American governance than for dismantling the old one. It will fall to the next president to begin building something new. Until then, expect disorder.
The post The Age After Trump is coming. Better buckle up. appeared first on Washington Post.
