In an unpredictable election, with an unpopular president, anything could happen. In the battle for the Senate, that means both parties are keeping their eye on races that could surprise everybody.
“I don’t think anyone who is being honest knows what will happen,” said Michigan-based Republican strategist Dennis Lennox. “The cycle and the whole map seems volatile; either the polls are going to be off, or this is going to be as bad or worse than 2006 and 2008,” he said, referring to elections when Republicans lost a lot of seats.
We just ranked the Senate races most likely to flip party control. Here are five more Senate races to watch.
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Kansas (Republican-held)
Kansas is showing the makings of a competitive race, especially if Democrats are very motivated to vote in November and Kansas Republicans stay home, upset with the price of fertilizer and diesel.
Sen. Roger Marshall (R) is running for reelection and has been trailing in some polls to a unique Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton. Hamilton is a fifth-generation Kansan and the founder of one of the largest churches in the state. Both sides say there are plenty of negative ads to run to make the other guy look bad.
And while Kansas is a reliably pro-Trump state, it has recently elected a Democrat in a statewide race: Its current governor, Laura Kelly, is a Democrat. Vice President JD Vance recently campaigned in Kansas, underscoring that Republicans aren’t taking a state Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2024 for granted.
Minnesota (Democratic-held)
Republicans hope that Minnesota’s Senate race can be a rare bright spot for them. It’s an open Senate seat, as Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring.
The Democratic nominee is Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. The Republican candidate is former television sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, a self-described “pro-choice” Republican and regular on football fans’ TV screens.
Minnesota regularly elect Democrats, but Trump only lost the state by four percentage points. Still, Democrats say they’re not too worried about Minnesota given how hard it will be for a Republican to outrun Trump’s unpopularity.
South Carolina (Republican-held)
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) died suddenly this year, and his sister, Sen. Darline Graham, is running to hold on to his seat for the next six years.
She took some heat in a debate this summer for her answer to a question about China. “I’m just going to be honest here,” she said. “I’m not that informed on national security.”
Her Democratic opponent is Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says is “running a real race” by attacking Graham’s early votes in the Senate, including opposition to ending the Iran war, and her pushback on the idea of Medicare-for-all. South Carolina hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.
Nebraska (Republican-held)
Nebraska is competitive after Democrats didn’t put up a candidate: Dan Osborn is a union leader who is running as an independent and challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Osborn ran and lost just two years ago but won over a number of Trump voters (whom he criticized with crass language in a leaked recording.)
Ricketts is the son of a billionaire, so Republicans are confident he can afford last-minute campaign ads if the race gets really close.
Florida (Republican-held)
Florida is a tough Senate race for Democrats, but some Republicans acknowledge the race could be close.
Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is a first-time candidate on the ballot; she got appointed to the Senate seat last year after Marco Rubio left to be the secretary of state. She’s not that well known to voters.
Democrats nominated state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who is trying to become Florida’s first Black U.S. senator. Her surprise primary win (over a much-better-funded Democrat) was powered by voters in Florida’s lowest-income and least-college-educated counties, as well as the ones with the most Black voters. But for the general election, she’s struggling to convince donors she can win in a state that voted for Trump three times.
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
The post The Senate races that could surprise everyone in November appeared first on Washington Post.
