To retake the Senate majority in November’s midterm elections, Democrats need to oust Republican senators in several red states, some of which haven’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in years or even decades.
It’s a possibility with President Donald Trump’s deeply unpopular presidency.
“Even red states aren’t safe when you see a president whose numbers have dropped as much as Trump’s have,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the nonpartisan election analysis site Cook Political Report.
Here are the nine Senate races most likely to flip parties that will determine control of the Senate.
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1. North Carolina: Could flip Republican to Democrat
This is the Democrats’ best opportunity to pick up a Senate seat: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) isn’t running for reelection, and an open Senate seat is usually easier to win. Plus, North Carolina is an incredibly divided state. It’s voted for Trump for president three times, but narrowly, and has recently elected Democrats to statewide offices.
One of those Democrats, Roy Cooper, is the former governor of North Carolina and is running for Senate. His opponent is a lesser-known former Republican Party official, Michael Whatley, who is perceived by voters to be closely tied to Trump. Republicans are increasingly worried they can’t hold onto this seat and that Cooper could be the first Democrat elected to Senate from North Carolina in nearly two decades.
2. Ohio: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Ohio’s newest senator, Jon Husted (R), got appointed to the Senate only last year to replace Vice President JD Vance. He’s running for the seat against a well-known figure in Ohio politics, former senator Sherrod Brown (D). (Insiders say some voters in Ohio still think he’s senator.)
Ohio voters are struggling with many of Trump’s unpopular policies. Ohio is a farming state, and fertilizer is getting more expensive as a result of Trump’s war in Iran. Tariffs have yet to deliver a manufacturing revival in a state that also has been reliant on that sector. There’s also a bipartisan, grassroots push to stop building the data centers that have proliferated across the state. Republicans are warning that if Husted loses, it could be because voters perceive him as being welcoming of data centers.
3. Maine: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Democrats almost certainly need to end the tenure of Sen. Susan Collins (R) to take back the majority. She’s been a senator since the ’90s, a stretch when the state has consistently supported Democrats for president.
Democrats had a spectacular candidate implosion this summer with oyster farmer Graham Platner but quickly got behind Troy Jackson, the progressive former state Senate president.
Maine’s economy could be hit particularly hard by Trump’s tariffs on Canada, and Democrats say Collins’s independent veneer has tarnished after 30 years in the Senate. But Jackson has had to put together a rushed campaign team, and some of his campaigning has come acrossas low key and even rambling.
4. Alaska: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Alaska has one of the oddest Senate races of the midterms and is another must-win for Democrats. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is running for a third term in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Sullivan has quietly broken with Trump at times, more so as the election nears.
Democrats managed to recruit former congresswoman Mary Peltola (D) as their Senate candidate. Alaska has only one House seat, so she has already shown that she can win statewide and has been laser-focused on local issues as well as how expensive living in Alaska is these days. (“Fish, family, freedom” is her slogan.) Republicans say concerns about her demeanor in private and management could punch a hole in that image.
Complicating the race is a retired teacher named Dan Sullivan who will be on the ballot too, as an independent. (Alaska voters rank their choices regardless of party.) He has been accused by Democrats as a plant to confuse voters; he denies that. “It’s going to come down to how many people vote for the fake Sullivan,” one Republican said.
5. Michigan: Could flip from Democrat to Republican
Michigan is perhaps Republicans’ best opportunity to flip a Democratic-held seat. Like North Carolina, it’s an open Senate seat (Democrat Gary Peters is retiring.)
Mike Rogers is a former Republican congressman who narrowly lost a Senate race in 2024, in a good year for Republicans. He is running again. The Democrats’ candidate is the lightning rod progressive Abdul El-Sayed. He doesn’t associate with the democratic socialists movement but has many progressive views, a biting campaigning style and a controversial campaign ally who has alienated some Jewish donors.
6. Iowa: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Iowa is an under-the-radar competitive race, a worrying sign for Republicans. It’s another open Senate seat (Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring), and the state is hurting from Trump’s tariffs on farmers and rising gas, diesel and fertilizer prices from the Iran war. Rep. Ashley Hinson is the Republican nominee, and she recently broke with Trump and urged ending the war quickly.
State Rep. Josh Turek is the Democratic nominee. He’s a former Paralympian athlete and represents a district that voted for Trump. He recently ran an ad saying of the nation’s immigration system: “I’ll work with anyone to fix it, including President Trump.”
Republicans point out that Senate elections in Iowa are usually surprisingly close.
7. Texas: Could flip from Republican to Democrat
Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas in three decades. But everything is going right for them this year to try: Democrats nominated James Talarico, a young seminarian who many Democrats say has the ability to unite his party and win over disaffected Trump voters.
Republicans nominated — with Trump’s help — one of the most controversial politicians in the state, Attorney General Ken Paxton. His estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, recently encouraged Republican women to vote for Paxton “even if we’re mad at them.”
Democrats’ hope is that Paxton keeps Republican voters at home while Talarico spurs a huge turnout within his party. Republicans’ hope is to spend hundreds of millions of valuable dollars to attack Talarico as too far left.
8. Georgia: Could flip from Democrat to Republican
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) was supposed to have a competitive reelection. But his social media-heavy campaigning has helped him build a large grassroots donor base (and 2028 buzz). Controversies involving the Republican nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, haven’t helped. Still, Georgia has voted for Trump two of the past three presidential elections.
9. New Hampshire: Could flip from Democrat to Republican
Republicans could defend their majority by winning in New Hampshire, another surprise competitive race.
It’s an open seat; Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring. Republicans have a famous name: John Sununu, a former U.S. senator and the brother of a popular governor. (Many people in New Hampshire think the governor is running for Senate.) Democrats’ candidate is Rep. Chris Pappas (D), who is pitching himself as a moderate.
Polls have shown neither candidate with a consistent lead, which underscores what strategists say is the unpredictable nature of these elections.
“I don’t think anyone who is behind knows what will happen,” said Michigan-based Republican strategist Dennis Lennox. “The cycle and the whole map seems volatile; either the polls are going to be off or this is going to be as bad or worse than 2006 and 2008,” he said, referring to elections when Republicans lost a lot of seats.
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
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