Republican strategists are signaling that they may soon abandon some of their own Senate candidates as a worsening political climate forces the party to defend states it once considered safe.
“Those candidates have [had] their chances,” one Republican operative working on Senate races told The Washington Sun, referring to GOP hopefuls in Georgia and North Carolina. “Time to go find other races.”
Months of heavy spending in both states have barely moved the numbers, according to the report.
In North Carolina, a leading outside super PAC last week pulled $6.5 million in ad reservations meant to boost Republican Michael Whatley, who trails former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper badly. In Georgia, the Cook Political Report recently moved Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff’s race against GOP Rep. Mike Collins to “Likely Democrat.”
Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) suggested Whatley has himself to blame for tying his fortunes so closely to the White House.
“I don’t see any evidence of separation between [Whatley] and the president,” Tillis said.
According to the Sun, Republicans expect more cuts in both states as the party moves money to shore up a group of red states that now look shaky: Ohio, Alaska, Texas and Iowa.
In Ohio, more than $300 million in ad spending is flowing into the race between Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who leads in public polling. In Alaska, where gas tops $5 a gallon, Sen. Dan Sullivan faces a hostile environment that operatives admit they can barely measure.
“People are feeling it, and they don’t like it. They don’t like it at all,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) told reporters.
In Texas, a super PAC aligned with the Senate Leadership Fund has booked $117 million to rescue Attorney General Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. One Texas-based GOP strategist now calls the race a coin flip, after rating it 60-40 for Paxton in August.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who lost his primary to Paxton, hinted that the party might need to stop pouring money into “lost causes.” Asked whether Paxton is one of them, he replied, “I’m going to leave that up to the voters.”
Even Kansas has become a worry, with outside groups spending seven figures to prop up Sen. Roger Marshall.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) described a shift in how voters feel.
“Six months ago, the reaction was sort of, ‘Eh, we’ve got problems with the Republicans, and they’re not perfect, but the other side’s crazy now,’” Kennedy said. “Now, it’s more like, ‘Both sides are crazy.’”
A second GOP operative offered an even bleaker assessment.
“Is it a s—ty environment? Absolutely. Does it seem to be getting worse? Absolutely,” the operative said. “Is it possible to keep the majority? It’s still possible.”
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