Southern California’s beaches may be in for another round of dangerous, high surf and severe erosion soon thanks to a pair of hurricanes being fueled by warm Pacific waters.
The hurricanes, Polo and Odalys, are not expected to make landfall in California. But forecasters said they could stir up rough seas and send swells toward the California coast, which has already been battered by big waves this summer.
The weather could start to change for the region as early as Sunday, but the hurricanes’ effects are most likely to be noticeable Monday and Tuesday, said Mike Wofford, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. Uncertainties abound, he said, including how big the surf may get and how severe coastal flooding may be.
Polo is located off southwestern Mexico and moving away from the coast, while Odalys is more than 1,200 miles off the southern tip of Baja California, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Right now, the swells generated by the hurricanes don’t appear to be tracking at an angle that would ordinarily have a significant impact on Southern California beaches, said Sam Zuber, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego. Still, they coincide with bimonthly astronomical high tides, which means water levels will already be elevated, and erosion and flooding are more likely, she said.
“We might get a little uptick in elevated surf,” she said. “But the tides are going to be so high that any little bump-up in the surf is going to help contribute to those impacts.”
Zuber advised members of the public to stay away from beaches Sunday through Tuesday.
Moisture from the hurricanes are also expected to increase humidity levels by 10% to 15%, Wofford said. In the San Diego forecast area, which also includes Orange County and most of the Inland Empire, cloud cover will also increase, resulting in cooler temperatures that will make the humidity easier to tolerate, Zuber said.
There’s also a small — less than 10% — chance of showers, if one of the hurricanes crawls farther up the coast, according to Wofford.
Earlier this month, days of intense waves fueled by Hurricane Marie far away in the Pacific damaged beachfront homes, chewed away coastline and caused a massive sinkhole in the driveway of Nicolas Cage’s oceanfront residence in Malibu, leading to the evacuation of 31 homes and a local emergency declaration.
Long Beach, Laguna Beach, Dana Point and Carlsbad also declared local emergencies, citing coastal erosion and sand loss.
The threat of a strong El Niño, which favors a rainier-than-normal winter across Southern California, has cities racing to do what they can to prepare for even stronger storms that could bring further coastal damage and flooding. Ocean temperatures are already elevated due to a combination of the strengthening El Niño, weather patterns and long-term global warming, melting polar ice caps, pushing tide lines higher and providing extra energy to storms.
Gov. Gavin Newsom earlier this week declared a statewide emergency for California in anticipation of El Niño-charged storms.
In Newport Beach, where 10- to 15-foot swells from Marie stripped away large amounts of sand in places like the Wedge, officials are keeping an eye on the upcoming forecast, said Georgia Rios, a city spokesperson. Crews are working to reinforce coastline berms on the Balboa Peninsula and Corona del Mar State Beach ahead of another potential round of flooding and erosion, and the city is also offering free sandbags to residents, she said.
At the same time, the city is working with Orange County to expedite sand relocation from the Santa Ana River mouth to its west jetties in an attempt to get ahead of the El Niño storms expected this winter, she said.
In Dana Point, city staff are monitoring swell forecasts for any potential effects from the hurricanes and conducting ongoing emergency work, including the placement of rock revetment along Beach Road, city spokesperson Jessica Spaulding wrote in an email.
Carlsbad is also tracking the upcoming storms and taking a proactive approach to maintaining its infrastructure in coastal areas, according to a statement from city manager Geoff Patnoe.
Times staff writer Grace Toohey contributed to this report
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