Pennsylvania Republicans have already written off their chances of beating Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro. Now they’re worried his November opponent could drag the rest of the ticket down with her.
Shapiro’s reelection bid against GOP state Treasurer Stacy Garrity “has turned into an outright rout,” the Washington Post reported.
Polls have shown Shapiro up by as much as 30 points, and his fundraising has blown past hers: the Democrat pulled in $13 million over the summer to Garrity’s $1.8 million, an $11.5 million gap. Shapiro’s campaign has spent or booked nearly $28 million in ads statewide, according to AdImpact, dwarfing Garrity’s roughly $750,000 — this despite Garrity entering the race as a supposedly strong recruit off her 3.5-million-vote reelection as treasurer in 2024.
“Maybe Garrity’s strategy is to run such an uninspiring campaign that the race is so much of an a—kicking that Democrats don’t feel the urgency to turn out on Election Day,” one Republican strategist candidly quipped to the Post.
The bigger worry, on a national scale, is “downballot fallout,” since Pennsylvania could help decide House control next year.
Four key House races are in play: Democrat Janelle Stelson’s toss-up bid against Rep. Scott Perry in PA-10; Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti versus freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan in PA-8; firefighter Bob Brooks against Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who won by the state’s narrowest 2024 margin, in the Lehigh Valley’s PA-7; and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who’s broken with Trump to burnish his independent brand, facing Democrat Bob Harvie in the least competitive of the four, PA-1.
Republican strategist Sam Chen conceded Garrity has “not run a good campaign” and is “going to lose,” but argued Pennsylvania’s ticket-splitting tendencies might still save House Republicans — if President Donald Trump doesn’t sink them first.
“What is going to hurt the downballot is the president, and specifically that he is not on the ballot,” Chen told the Post. “When he is not on the ballot, it is like his baggage is on the ballot and his coattails are not.”
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