When China’s leader, Xi Jinping, arrives at Joint Base Andrews, every step he takes down the stairs from his plane will be scrutinized for clues about his health.
Mr. Xi is China’s most dominant leader in decades: He is preparing to claim an all-but-certain fourth term in power from late next year, and there is no sign of a likely successor waiting in the wings. And at 73, Mr. Xi is old enough that any stumble or missed meeting ignites speculation abroad about his health. (The topic is heavily censored in China.)
No matter what happens on the stairs or during Mr. Xi’s three-day visit to Washington, guesswork about his health and probable longevity is sure to persist.
China’s Communist Party does not have clear rules of succession if a leader becomes incapacitated or dies, and Mr. Xi magnified the uncertainties by overturning retirement norms. Mr. Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, retired in 2012 at 69, and his cognitive decline appeared visible in 2022, when he was abruptly escorted from his chair at a party congress, looking confused and upset.
In August, Mr. Xi stepped slowly down the stairway of his plane, holding his wife’s hand, when they visited Kyrgyzstan, igniting rumors online about his health.
The discussion intensified this month after he skipped a dinner at a regional leaders’ meeting in New Delhi. Mr. Xi was absent from a dinner for the BRICS group of developing countries — which includes Brazil, Russia, India and China — according to Indian news reports and a diplomat from one of the participating countries.
There was no suggestion that Mr. Xi was seriously ill. When he left New Delhi, he climbed the stairs to his plane unaided. Still, the absence fed questions in some foreign news reports about Mr. Xi’s health and stamina.
Mr. Xi is a bulky man who has said he became a smoker from his youth in the Chinese countryside, but details of his lifestyle are unclear. A friend of Mr. Xi told U.S. diplomats in 2009 that Mr. Xi, then preparing to succeed Mr. Hu, “did not drink or do drugs,” according to a diplomatic cable disclosed by WikiLeaks.
But Dennis Wilder, a former C.I.A. senior analyst who tracked Chinese leaders, told The Wall Street Journal that Mr. Xi had a reputation as a frequent drinker and longtime smoker who did not like to exercise.
Mr. Xi has not publicly commented on his health or plans for retiring or staying in office. Last year, he was inadvertently caught on a microphone chatting with Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, about living forever. “People rarely lived to be over 70, but these days, at 70, you are still a child,” a man who appeared to be translating Mr. Xi’s remarks to Mr. Putin was recorded saying in Russian.
Whatever his health, Mr. Xi gets some of the most attentive medical care in the world. Chinese leaders have their own health care system that provides round-the-clock care and checkups at elite hospitals, including the military-run 301 Hospital near the leadership’s headquarters in Beijing.
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