The Midwest has twice helped to deliver the presidency to Donald Trump.
It is now the epicenter of Republican panic over the price of his policies, as the spiraling effects of the war in Iran push the cost of gas and diesel upward.
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This week, three Midwestern Senate candidates — in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio — broke with Trump and called for the war to stop.
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Last week, Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn, two Iowa Republicans locked in tight re-election battles, voted for the first time to curtail Trump’s war powers, after previously voting against similar measures.
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And candidates across the region called on federal officials to suspend diesel exports and gas taxes in a bid to deliver cost relief with six weeks to go until the midterms.
The war’s deep unpopularity has put Republicans on defense in some of the so-called “blue wall” states — and well beyond — as Democrats hammer them with ads about gas prices and visit farms to emphasize the knock-on effects on agriculture.
“If the environment is this bad in my home state, where Trump has been the most popular political figure over the last decade, I can’t imagine where it is everywhere else,” Steve Deace, a conservative talk show host based in Iowa, wrote on social media this afternoon.
A confluence of pain points
Republicans are increasingly worried about polling that points to a difficult environment across the Midwest — in Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Kansas.
Michigan has some of the highest gas prices east of the Mississippi River. Many states in the region have deep economic ties to Canada, which is currently the subject of a fierce, Trump-instigated trade war. Tariffs have driven manufacturing costs up.
And the price of diesel — which hit a record yesterday — has walloped farmers, some of whom are also fuming over the Trump administration’s efforts to lower the price of beef.
David Kensinger, a Republican strategist in Kansas, told me this morning that the high cost of diesel is particularly painful in the very rural expanses where Republicans need to run up the numbers. “I haven’t seen headwinds like this in about 20 years,” he said.
What’s the right approach?
I wanted to know how Republican candidates are dealing with this environment, so I called up Pat Proctor, the Republican running for Secretary of State in Kansas, to ask how he broaches issues like gas prices and the broader economy while he’s campaigning.
He got off the phone as quickly as he could.
“I don’t have to talk about it on the trail,” Proctor said, before hanging up. Message received!
I had better luck reaching Jason Roe, a Republican strategist who is advising Representative Tom Barrett, a Republican running in the battleground Seventh District in Michigan who has voted repeatedly to dial back Trump’s war powers.
Roe bemoaned the “$5 gas” he sees in Michigan, calling costs the “number one driver of the election.” Earlier this year, he said, voters might have been willing to accept temporary fluctuations in gas prices in an effort to disarm Iran — but no longer.
“I think we’ve kind of exhausted the patience of voters when it comes to that,” Roe said. He added, “Our attitude is, you can’t run from it. You’ve gotta hang a lantern on it. You’ve gotta address it.”
Get Caught Up
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As Xi’s visit approached, Trump has portrayed him more as a personal friend than a competitor.
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A prolific criminal hacking group says it has stolen thousands of sensitive personnel records from the F.B.I.
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Senator John Curtis of Utah, a Republican, urged Congress to investigate Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding, after ProPublica reported that a Russian businessman with ties to Vladimir Putin helped pay for a lavish after-party.
What I’m Watching
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Paul LePage, the Republican former governor of Maine, says the Trump administration is wrongly deporting his son’s father-in-law. The man is here legally, LePage claims, but is being deported “because he came from a country that’s not liked by certain people in Washington.” (He did not say which country.)
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The messy legal battle over Missouri’s congressional map is headed to the Supreme Court for a third time. The past two times, the justices told the state to use an older map, which would benefit Democrats.
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Remember Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill? To offset its tax breaks, it made big cuts to Medicaid, health care subsidies and food stamps. Now, with inflation straining Americans’ wallets, those cuts are coming back to bite.
Quote of the Day
“Oftentimes in politics, you do only get one shot.”
That’s Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, in an interview with The Times, on the possibility that she might run for president in 2028. Read the full story, which also explores her thoughts on a future Senate run.
In Their Words
A common denominator runs through American life: a profound distrust of politicians and institutions. According to a Pew survey last year, just 17 percent of Americans trust the federal government. In the 1950s, that figure topped 70 percent.
Sabrina Tavernise spoke with Democrats and Republicans around the country who have become disillusioned with the system.
Related: Americans’ views on China are growing more positive, a new Pew survey found. Forty-six percent of people now have a warm or neutral view, up from 31 percent five years ago.
ONE LAST THING
‘Born and raised’ in Austin, Texas, he said. So why did he sound British?
Ordinary people with modest social media followings are being paid by a progressive group to talk about affordability in the U.S. Of the more than 100 participants The Times identified, only a third appeared to live in the states they were posting about. Some lived in England, Canada and Pakistan.
Similar online campaigns have paid users to promote a Republican candidate in Los Angeles, oppose crypto regulations and push for tighter A.I. controls.
But why use everyday people instead of famous figures? These efforts represent a new method of online influence, our reporters explained, which aims to saturate your feed with a topic until it becomes unavoidable.
Taylor Robinson contributed reporting.
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