Every year my friends and family ask me for help with their Oscar pools.
So, I thought I’d save myself some phone calls.
The all-important fall film festival season is coming to a close — after the back-to-back marathon of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. All that’s left is the less-impactful New York Film Fest, which admittedly has a better-than-usual lineup this time.
But the endless path to the Academy Awards in March has acquired some asphalt.
“The Odyssey,” which so far has been “Oppenheimer”-ing its way to a second best picture prize for Christopher Nolan, has finally met its competition. Su nobre es “La Bola Negra.”
Netflix’s phenomenal Spanish gay World War II epic — a moving puzzle that ambitiously spans 1932 to 2017 — that bowed at Cannes in the spring just got a major boost when it was rapturously received in Toronto.
That’s telling.
TIFF’s shtick is that normal people attend it, rather than solely movie stars, industry and press.
My colleagues in the media absolutely hate that, and love to complain how the plebs in the audience openly laugh and cry at movies instead of sitting in stoic judgmental silence like my pretentious scold friends do.
But what’s useful about TIFF is that it gives us some idea of how real human beings will react to awards contenders later on. Populist “Green Book” won the top prize there in 2018 and completely remade the race, for example.
And the Canadians were all aboot “La Bola.”
It probably won’t take home TIFF’s big People’s Choice Award, which will be announced on Sunday. Foreign-language films rarely do. That significant victory could supercharge either Jordan Firstman’s sublime “Club Kid” or the Sylvester Stallone biopic “I Play Rocky” into the race if either of them are named.
But, as far as a realistic shot at best picture goes, “La Bola” was the belle of the bola.
Even its talented directors, Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, have a decent chance of knocking out Nolan. They have a unique story that will get them a lot of ink. They’re ex-boyfriends and artistic collaborators who go by the nickname “Los Javis.” Very fun to say!
So for now, best picture is a two-man race between “The Odyssey,” which will still likely win, and “La Bola Negra,” this year’s (much, much, much, did I say much?) better “Emilia Perez.”
Could “Dune: Part Three” leapfrog them? Or two-time best director winner Alejandro Iñárritu’s “Digger” with too-hungry Tom Cruise? What about “Ink,” “Slumdog Millionaire” director Danny Boyle’s raucous history flick about Britain’s Sun newspaper?
Eh. Those who compare “Dune” to “Lord of the Rings,” the third part of which triumphantly won best picture in 2004, don’t really understand what “Dune” is. Timothée Chalamet’s Paul Atreides is not a likable hero, like Frodo, and audiences sure ain’t gonna cry at the end.
“Digger” is an artsy satire of America. Nobody’s in the mood for that. It could get snubbed entirely. Despite helming “Birdman” and “The Revenant,” Iñárritu has been left out before.
And, as far as newspaper flicks go, “Ink,” while a good time, lacks the weight of best picture winner “Spotlight.”
The one-two punch of TIFF and Telluride also cemented next year’s likely best actress winner — Julianne Moore, who goes full-out as a suburban housewife who takes up musical theater in “The Debut.”
There were high hopes for Cynthia Erivo to emerge in the legal drama “Prima Facie,” but those went the way of “Wicked: For Good.” So, Moore’s closest competition, I guess, is Inde Navarrette of “Obsession.” But that’s like saying Coke’s closest competition is RC Cola.
I’m hopeful that the mega-gifted Olivia Wilde gets in her fabulous performance in the cocktail-party comedy “The Invite.” If there’s any justice in the world, she’ll also wind up in best director and picture.
Best actor got two new entrants this month: Andrew Scott — forever known as the “hot priest” — of the AIDS drama “Elsinore,” and the astonishing John Malkovich of Martin McDonagh’s hilarious “Wild Horse Nine.”
But Johnny Malk is well ahead.
Acting legend Malkovich, 72, has been nominated twice but never won. And critics were nearly unanimous in saying that this is some of the finest work of his long career.
That’s about as certain a recipe for a best actor Oscar winner as you get.
Of course, there’s still a long way to go — 176 days, in fact.
So, if we’re lucky, old offensive tweets from one of the contenders will resurface and kill their chances. Fingers crossed!
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