Russia has suggested that sweeping new U.S. legislation aimed at pressuring Moscow to end the war in Ukraine will backfire, warning that new U.S. sanctions would risk undoing President Trump’s steps toward peace.
Moscow most likely hopes that the president, who signed the bill on Friday at the White House, will rebuff the hawks in Congress and sidestep the law’s harsh provisions.
The law itself makes that easy enough. Its language includes a provision that lets Mr. Trump waive any of the measures against Russia on national security grounds, as long as the White House notifies Congress of its decision.
The law, named after Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who died in July, gives Mr. Trump the power to target nations importing Russian oil and gas with up to 100 percent tariffs, subject all Russian imports to the United States to up to 500 percent tariffs and take greater aim at Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and banking system.
“It constitutes an unfriendly action,” the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said on Thursday of the legislation after it had passed but before it had been signed. “And, of course, the imposition of any additional sanctions by the U.S. definitely will complicate efforts to reach a peaceful resolution in Ukraine.”
He said that the Russian government was monitoring how the legislation progressed.
The Russian Embassy in Washington said in a statement on X that the bill would do a “grand disservice to the current Administration’s efforts to Make America Great Again.”
The Kremlin did not immediately comment after the signing of the law, but it angered some of Russia’s hawks. Dmitri A. Medvedev, the former president and the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, who is known for bombastic statements that often diverge from the Kremlin’s, called the new law a “Russophobic abomination” in a message on Saturday on Telegram. Moscow should respond with “the language of direct military deterrence,” he said.
Whether Mr. Trump will use any of the legislation’s provisions to increase pressure on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is an open question. Some critics of the law have suggested that the White House could use the same authority to target the European Union, where a number of countries still import Russian oil and gas. The bloc is aiming to stop all imports next year.
“Given that he has demonstrated very limited desire to put pressure on Putin and Russia,” Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said of Mr. Trump before the signing on Friday, “my guess is he will sign it and issue waivers and maybe try to use the leverage overall.”
Russian officials may share that expectation.
Grigory Karasin, the chairman of the international affairs committee in Russia’s upper chamber of Parliament, said in an interview with the state-controlled news outlet Lenta.ru that various signals from Washington had indicated the United States intended to keep building relations with Russia.
“I’m convinced that these sanctions don’t have much of an impact on the negotiations because we’re talking about serious issues,” Mr. Karasin said.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on Friday thanked Mr. Trump for signing the bill, writing on social media that “Senator Graham never doubted for a second that America has enough strength to stand up to dictators and achieve results if it acts THE RIGHT WAY.”
“The best way to honor Lindsey’s memory will be to implement the provisions of this law fully and swiftly,” Mr. Zelensky wrote.
This month, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s special envoys, first visited Mr. Putin in Moscow and then met with officials in Ukraine on a diplomatic tour to revive efforts to end the war.
Though Democrats and Republicans in Congress are urging Mr. Trump to step up pressure on the Kremlin, the Trump administration has been considering the opposite. The White House is considering signing business deals with Russia as an inducement to peace before Moscow stops fighting in Ukraine, The New York Times reported this past week.
The bill signed into law by Mr. Trump prohibits U.S. investment in Russia, but the White House could provide Congress with a waiver allowing business deals to move forward.
Last year, in his most notable effort to pressure the Kremlin, Mr. Trump imposed sanctions on two top Russian oil firms. He also imposed tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. While the move temporarily caused India to reduce its Russian oil imports, they shot up again after the start of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran.
Mr. Trump also shied away from penalizing China, the largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels. The government in Beijing has substantial leverage over the United States as a supplier of critical minerals.
Mr. Gabuev, the Carnegie analyst, said China was likely to rebuff any U.S. restrictions, similar to how Beijing responded to Washington’s announcement of an “economic D-Day” against Iran with measures intended to isolate Iran. China has already shown it can withstand Mr. Trump’s pressure during a bruising trade war last year.
“As in the case of Iran, China can stay out of implementation,” Mr. Gabuev said. “That is the lifeline for the Russians, though obviously it increases China’s leverage in its relationship with the Russians.” He noted that it could mean Russia would have to sell its oil at a greater discount to China.
With oil trading above $100 per barrel because of the war in Iran and food prices fueling inflation in the United States, Mr. Trump may be loath to take any measures against Russia that could worsen the situation at home.
For example, though direct U.S. imports from Russia are minimal, Russia is the second-largest supplier of fertilizer to the United States after Canada. Putting a 500 percent tariff on those imports would most likely harm the United States more in the short term than it would damage Russia, which can sell its fertilizer on the global market.
Daniel Fried, a fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former sanctions coordinator at the State Department, noted that the United States had successfully pressured China and India to reduce purchases of Iranian oil over time during the Obama administration. Mr. Trump could try to do the same with Russian oil, he said, even if it would prove difficult.
Mr. Fried also noted that the Senate passed the bill in August by a veto-proof margin, 86-11.
“Congress doesn’t have to sit by passively hoping that the Oval Office does the right thing,” he said. “They can do something.”
Oleg Matsnev contributed reporting.
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