Democrats have captured one of their largest polling leads over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot this cycle, some 50 days out from the midterm elections.
Respondents backed the Dems over the GOP 54%-46%, as President Trump proved to be a motivating factor for both sides of the aisle, according to a CBS News/YouGov survey of adults.
Strikingly, many Americans backing Democrats say they aren’t making that choice because they expect that to better their situation financially. Instead, they’re doing it to oppose Trump, the poll found.
A whopping 80% of those who said they’re voting for Democrats are doing so to oppose Trump, compared to 19% who said it’s not about him. Meanwhile, 61% of those preferring Republicans are doing so to help Trump, while 36% said it’s not about him.
For the past 90 years, all but two midterm election cycles saw the party in control of the White House lose seats.
Many prognosticators have predicted that Republicans are in for a beating due to that historical trend, concerns about the economy and Trump’s approval rating being underwater.
CBS’ battleground tracker for the lower chamber projects that Dems will nab 228 seats, compared to the GOP’s 207. That’s a sharp change from Republicans’ 219-214 majority.
Notably, the Cook Political Report currently has Republicans favored to win 208 and Democrats 206, with 21 seats deemed toss-ups.
In the other chamber, most polls show a close race for control of the Senate as well.
Despite the GOP being widely cast as the underdogs, party leaders have been confident that they will pull off an upset, given their larger war chest, a bump from redistricting and the history of recent polls underestimating them.
“I’m very bullish on the midterm. I’m convinced that we’re going to win this,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told The Post last week. “My analysis and optimism is based on my personal observation … I went to the districts that everyone agrees are going to decide this thing.
“What I saw was very encouraging. There was a lot of energy on the ground.”
As part of an effort to defy historical headwinds, Republicans held a rare midterm convention in Dallas to energize the base and further buttress their massive cash cannon.
Republicans have only recently begun tapping into their war chest in a significant way for a massive ad blitz during the midterm homestretch, according to National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC).
The CBS News/YouGov survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points and sampled 2,460 adults from Sept. 8–11.
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