A plan to hold the House majority championed by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) took a hit after Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout admitted she bet on her own election.
On Monday, the prediction market Kalshi suspended Buckhout for three years and fined her $2,589.96, according to a disciplinary notice from the exchange. Buckhout bought fewer than $1,000 in contracts tied to her own congressional race, the notice said.
“I bet on myself. Literally,” Buckhout told Carolina Journal. “It was a dumb mistake, and as soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right. Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived.”
The admission involves a candidate the speaker had personally elevated three weeks earlier, when he traveled to Greenville, North Carolina, to campaign with her, WRAL reported.
“North Carolina’s first congressional district is an essential part of the strategy to ensure the Republicans maintain the majority in Congress,” Johnson said at the Aug. 4 event.
Johnson said the same day that he hoped to raise $400 million by November for roughly 20 House races, including Buckhout’s, WRAL reported. Republicans in the state legislature had already improved her odds, redrawing the district to add more Republican voters.
The John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Center for Public Integrity now rates the redrawn 1st District R+5, Carolina Journal reported.
That is a swing from D+1 under the previous map, according to Carolina Journal.
Buckhout lost the seat to Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) in 2024, and the two are running again in November, Carolina Journal reported. Davis won that race 49.5% to 47.8%, a margin of just over 6,000 votes, according to Carolina Journal.
The rule Buckhout broke does not turn on secret information at all, as Kalshi Rule 5.17(z) bars anyone with “any influence, directly or indirectly” over an event’s outcome from trading contracts on it, the notice said.
Buckhout “cooperated with the inquiry into this trading activity” and agreed to accept the findings, pay the penalty and stay off the exchange, the notice said.
Several details remain unknown, including which contract she bought and the exact amount, the New York Post reported. The date she placed the wager is also unclear. Johnson had campaigned with her in the district just days earlier.
The exchange suspended three candidates for five years earlier this year, fining Minnesota congressional candidate Matt Klein $539.85, Texas congressional candidate Ezekiel Enriquez $784.20 and Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran $6,229.30, Carolina Journal reported.
Kalshi permanently banned former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) the same Monday over a bet on whether he would attend this year’s State of the Union address, the New York Post reported.
Confirmed violations can result in forfeited profits, fines, multiyear suspensions, or permanent bans, Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick told Carolina Journal.
Trading on the race has continued, with Kalshi’s NC-1 market drawing $74,393 in volume as of Monday, according to Carolina Journal. Davis had a 61% chance of winning, compared to Buckhout’s 41%, in that market.
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