The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the open Senate races in Iowa and Texas from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” on Thursday, reinforcing how competitive they have become even though President Donald Trump won those states by double-digit margins in 2024.
“With these ratings shifts, we see the overall battle for the Senate as a toss up, but one in which Republicans may still hold the slimmest of advantages,” Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote.
Democrats need to hold all of their seats and flip four others to retake the Senate. They would need to capture at least two seats in red states such as Iowa and Texas.
In Iowa, U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is running against state Rep. Josh Turek (D). Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is facing state Rep. James Talarico (D) there.
No Democrat has won a Senate race Iowa since 2008. In Texas, the drought is even longer: No Democrat has won a Senate race there since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988.
Cook, a nonpartisan publication that handicaps races, also shifted both states’ gubernatorial races to the left. The Iowa race went from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.” Texas went from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
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