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The midterms may come down to just 20 House races, including ‘the swingiest swing state’: Pennsylvania

July 27, 2026
in News
The midterms may come down to just 20 House races, including ‘the swingiest swing state’: Pennsylvania

The stage is in battleground Pennsylvania. The stakes are control of the House.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries on Sunday unveiled the party’s Fighting for an Affordable America agenda, as he kicked off 100 days until the midterm elections and works to focus voter attention ahead of November.

In Pennsylvania’s 7th District, tucked in the Lehigh Valley, Jeffries and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, rallied support at a steelworkers’ union hall for Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter trying to unseat the incumbent Republican congressman as Democrats reach for the House majority.

Jeffries, D-N.Y., said Democrats were focused on restoring healthcare cuts, bringing the cost of living down and ending the war in Iran to beat Republicans and hold President Donald Trump accountable. The united front on Sunday comes as Democrats have fought among themselves in primaries across the country this year.

“When you put us back in charge of the United States House of Representatives, you’ll get a Congress that speaks up for everyday Americans and a Congress that stands up to an out-of-control president,” he said.

Down the road, Brooks’ rival, freshman GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, is launching his own 100-day-out event.

It’s a symbolic start to a campaign season that’s been well underway for much of a tumultuous year that’s included partisan redistricting battles, contentious primaries in both parties and weighty Supreme Court rulings on campaign finance.

Midterm elections are often a referendum on the president

Midterm elections are often a referendum on the party in power, and the contests are set against the second term of Trump, whose military action against Iran and economic policies backed by the Republican majority in Congress are reshaping the political landscape.

“We gotta win the midterms,” Trump said during a visit last month to a Mack Truck plant in the district, where he promoted Mackenzie’s candidacy.

Trump has made a number of visits to competitive states as GOP candidates rely on the power of the presidency to propel their campaigns. Last week he was in Georgia, a key state with a marquee Senate race, and he has a trip to battleground Michigan coming up.

While the president voices support for rank-and-file Republicans during his rallies, he also devotes much of his time on stage to a wide range of issues, including the U.S.-Mexico border, opposing transgender rights and criticizing judges.

Republicans are hoping the president’s signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of tax breaks and spending cuts, along with a measure the House passed recently aiming to limit lawmaker stock trading, will buoy them with voters.

But they are up against a historical trend that sees the president’s party lose seats in midterm elections and are confronting the unpopularity of the war with Iran.

Democrats are aiming to seize on voter disapproval of the war and refocus attention back to kitchen table issues like higher costs and gas prices to propel them to wins in the narrowly divided House.

A few seats will determine control of the House

Even though 435 House seats are being contested this fall, control of the House is often determined by just a handful of competitive districts. Fewer than 20 seats are among the most watched, what analysts call genuine toss-ups.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District is a key battleground along with contests elsewhere in the state, reflecting significant political weight not just as a presidential swing state but as the pathway to a House majority. Democrats are also targeting House contests in Pennsylvania’s 1st, 8th and 10th districts — all seats controlled by Republicans.

Shapiro, who is seeking a second term this year as well, has supported Democratic candidates in the contested seats, wagering some of his own political capital. He acknowledged the state’s centrality to winning the House, while alluding to its central role in presidential elections as well.

“We are, of course, the swingiest swing state,” he said.

He added: “We will do our part to carry forward the goodness and the decency that defines Pennsylvania and put an end to the chaos and cruelty and the corruption that exists in Washington.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is preparing to embark on his own cross-country trip to fundraise for the GOP and stump for Republican candidates as he works to retain his majority.

Republicans have a cash edge over Democrats in the race for House control. A question hovering over the election is how the Supreme Court’s June ruling affecting campaign finance could play out, with national parties now able to make direct contributions to candidate campaigns.

___

Associated Press writer Lisa Mascaro contributed to this report.

The post The midterms may come down to just 20 House races, including ‘the swingiest swing state’: Pennsylvania appeared first on Fortune.

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